{"id":8263,"date":"2017-11-20T13:45:40","date_gmt":"2017-11-20T05:45:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/2017\/11\/20\/can-china-fight-taiwan\/"},"modified":"2017-11-20T13:45:40","modified_gmt":"2017-11-20T05:45:40","slug":"can-china-fight-taiwan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/2017\/11\/20\/can-china-fight-taiwan\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u7d71\u6d3e\u9589\u5634\u3011\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u6cbb\u5b78\u8005\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\uff1a\u4e2d\u570b\u6c92\u6709\u8db3\u5920\u8ecd\u529b\u653b\u4e0b\u4e9e\u592a\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u53f0\u7063"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-full wp-image-118590 aligncenter\" src=\"http:\/\/buzzorange.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/11\/15360681008_c1f8bb9307_z.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"462\" \/><\/p>\n<h2>\u4e2d\u570b\u5982\u679c\u771f\u5fc3\u8981\u8ddf\u53f0\u7063\u958b\u6230\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u80fd\u6490\u5e7e\u5929\uff1f<\/h2>\n<p>\u9664\u4e86\u7d71\u6d3e<a href=\"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/2017\/06\/19\/china-taiwan-war-issue\/\">\u6700\u611b\u5a01\u8105<\/a>\u300c\u8ddf\u4e2d\u5171\u958b\u6230\u300d\uff0c\u8eab\u70ba\u53f0\u7063\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u90fd\u5c0d\u81ea\u5bb6\u570b\u8ecd\u548c\u5175\u529b\u6c92\u81ea\u4fe1\u5427\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u5728\u4e2d\u5171 19 \u5927\u978f\u56fa\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u6b0a\u529b\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u5ddd\u666e\u4e0a\u4efb\u5f8c\u7f8e\u570b\u5167\u90e8\u7e3d\u662f\u5206\u88c2\u3001\u610f\u898b\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6c92\u6709\u55ac\u650f\u7684\u4e00\u5929\uff0c\u9019\u770b\u4f3c\u7d66\u4e86\u4e2d\u570b\u6a5f\u6703\u91cd\u5efa\u5728\u4e9e\u592a\u5730\u5340\u7684\u4e3b\u5c0e\u6b0a\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u7f8e\u570b\u5b78\u8005\u7684\u5206\u6790\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e0d\u662f\u9019\u9ebc\u56de\u4e8b\uff0c<span style=\"color: #800000\"><strong>\u9019\u4efd\u7814\u7a76\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u5317\u4eac\u6c92\u6709\u8db3\u5920\u7684\u8ecd\u529b\u6253\u5012\u4ed6\u7684\u9130\u8fd1\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u80fd\u9023\u53f0\u7063\u4e5f\u653b\u4e0d\u4e0b\u4f86\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u4ee5\u570b\u969b\u95dc\u4fc2\u5c08\u696d\u805e\u540d\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u578b\u5927\u5b78\u2014\u2014\u5854\u592b\u8328\u5927\u5b78\uff08Tufts University\uff09\u653f\u6cbb\u5b78\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388\u9ea5\u514b\uff0e\u8c9d\u514b\u5229\uff08Michael Beckley\uff09\u9032\u884c\u9019\u9805\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u4e26\u767c\u8868\u5728\u300a\u570b\u969b\u5b89\u5168\u300b\u5b63\u520a\uff08International Security\uff09\u4e0a\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6458\u8b6f\u6587\u7ae0\u5167\u5bb9\uff1a<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #800000\"><strong>\u300c\u6771\u4e9e\u7684\u8ecd\u529b\u5e73\u8861\u6b63\u5728\u840c\u82bd\uff0c\u7f8e\u8ecd\u53ea\u8981\u627f\u64d4\u6709\u9650\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u52a0\u5f37\u5e73\u8861\u3002\u300d<\/strong><\/span>\u8c9d\u514b\u5229\u5728\u6587\u4e2d\u9019\u6a23\u5beb\u9053\uff0c\u300c\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u8ecd\u529b\u5e73\u8861\u6703\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u591a\u5e74\u7dad\u6301\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4e2d\u570b\u82e5\u60f3\u58d3\u5236\u9130\u570b\uff0c\u4ed6\u53ef\u80fd\u7121\u6cd5\u8ca0\u64d4\u9019\u7b46\u4ee3\u50f9\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<h2>\u7f8e\u570b\u548c\u4e2d\u570b\u9130\u570b\u90fd\u8a72\u7528\u9019\u7a2e\u65b9\u6cd5\u5236\u8861\u89e3\u653e\u8ecd<\/h2>\n<p>\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u9130\u570b\u80fd\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u6700\u4f4e\u9650\u5ea6\u7684\u5354\u52a9\u4e0b\uff0c\u4ee5\u300c\u5340\u57df\u963b\u7d55\u300d\u548c\u300c\u53cd\u4ecb\u5165\u300d\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u91cd\u632b\u4e2d\u570b\u8ecd\u3002<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u5340\u57df\u62d2\u6b62\uff0c\u662f\u904b\u7528\u591a\u5c64\u7a7a\u9593\u548c\u4e0d\u540c\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u9650\u5236\u4ed6\u570b\u5728\u6575\u65b9\u81ea\u7531\u6d3b\u52d5\u548c\u63a7\u5236\u80fd\u529b\uff1b\u53cd\u4ecb\u5165\uff0c\u6307\u7684\u5247\u662f\u9632\u7bc4\u4ed6\u570b\u5175\u529b\u9032\u5165\u4f5c\u6230\u5340\u57df\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u4f5c\u6230\u6a21\u5f0f\u662f\u7f8e\u570b\u53ca\u4e9e\u592a\u5404\u570b\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u8ad6\u4e8b\u4e2d\u570b\u89e3\u653e\u8ecd\u4f5c\u6230\u601d\u7dad\u7684\u8a5e\u5f59\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u90fd\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e2d\u570b\u6703\u4ee5\u6b64\u963b\u6b62\u7f8e\u8ecd\u6d89\u5165\u53f0\u6d77\u5354\u52a9\u53f0\u7063\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\u8a31\u591a\u5c40\u52e2\u89c0\u5bdf\u5bb6\uff0c\u5982\u6230\u7565\u8a55\u4f30\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7814\u7a76\u54e1\u5409\u539f\u6052\u6dd1\uff08Toshi Yoshihara\uff09\u3001\u5b89\u5fb7\u9b6f\uff0e\u514b\u91cc\u6d3e\u6069\u7ef4\u5947\uff08Andrew Krepinevich\uff09 \u90fd\u8a8d\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u53ca\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u9130\u8fd1\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u61c9\u8a72\u62cb\u68c4\u904e\u5f80\u820a\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53cd\u7528\u300c\u5340\u57df\u62d2\u6b62\u300d\u3001\u300c\u53cd\u4ecb\u5165\u300d\u7684\u601d\u7dad\u5236\u8861\u4e2d\u570b\u3002\u8c9d\u514b\u5229\u66f4\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u5177\u9ad4\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u300c\u5728\u53cd\u4ecb\u5165\u3001\u5340\u57df\u62d2\u6b62\u6230\u7565\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5c07\u653e\u68c4\u5728\u6771\u4e9e\u9032\u884c\u6d77\u4e0a\u6307\u63ee\uff0c\u8f49\u800c\u81f4\u529b\u5354\u52a9\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u9130\u570b\uff0c\u4e0d\u8b93\u89e3\u653e\u8ecd\u53d6\u5f97\u76f8\u95dc\u5340\u57df\u7684\u6d77\u4e0a\u8207\u7a7a\u4e2d\u63a7\u5236\u6b0a\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<h2>\u300c\u6c92\u4ec0\u9ebc\u9053\u7406\u80fd\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e2d\u570b\u80fd\u51fa\u5176\u4e0d\u610f\u7a81\u7834\u53f0\u7063\u9632\u885b\u300d<\/h2>\n<p>\u89e3\u653e\u8ecd\u70ba\u4e86\u6210\u529f\u4fb5\u7565\u53f0\u7063\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u5fc5\u9808\u5efa\u7acb\u5168\u9762\u7684\u5236\u7a7a\u6b0a\u53ca\u6d77\u4e0a\u512a\u52e2\u3002\u8c9d\u514b\u5229\u63a8\u6f14\u4e86\u9019\u985e\u6230\u7565\u7684\u53ef\u884c\u6027\uff0c\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c<span style=\"color: #800000\"><strong>\u5728\u9019\u500b\u6709\u7cbe\u78ba\u5c0e\u5f48\u7684\u6642\u4ee3\uff0c\u89e3\u653e\u8ecd\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6210\u529f\u57f7\u884c\u5169\u68f2\u767b\u9678\u596a\u5cf6\u4efb\u52d9\u3002\u7576\u89e3\u653e\u8ecd\u5728\u6d77\u4e0a\u6642\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u5c31\u53ef\u9760\u5c0e\u5f48\u5c07\u4ed6\u5011\u6bb2\u6ec5<\/strong><\/span>\u3002\u8c9d\u514b\u5229\u89e3\u91cb\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u53f0\u7063\u4fdd\u6709\u5145\u5206\u7684\u9632\u7a7a\u6b66\u529b\u3001\u653b\u64ca\u5e73\u53f0\uff0c\u89e3\u653e\u8ecd\u767b\u9678\u8247\u5728\u7a7f\u8d8a\u53f0\u7063\u6d77\u5cfd\u6642\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u5df2\u7d93\u88ab\u53f0\u7063\u6210\u529f\u727d\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8c9d\u514b\u5229\u7684\u5206\u6790\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u6c92\u4ec0\u9ebc\u9053\u7406\u80fd\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e2d\u570b\u80fd\u4ee5\u5b8c\u5168\u51fa\u5176\u4e0d\u610f\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u64ca\uff0c\u7a81\u7834\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u9632\u885b\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u6709\u7cbe\u5bc6\u7684\u9632\u7a7a\u9810\u8b66\u7cfb\u7d71\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c07\u6230\u6a5f\u90e8\u7f72\u5728\u5168\u53f0 36 \u500b\u8ecd\u6a5f\u5834\uff0c\u842c\u4e00\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\uff0c\u9084\u53ef\u4ee5\u52d5\u7528\u6c11\u9593\u4eca\u5834\u8dd1\u9053\u3001\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u90e8\u5206\u516c\u8def\u5145\u7576\u7a7a\u8ecd\u57fa\u5730\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u4e5f\u6709\u4e00\u5806\u516c\u8def\u98db\u5f48\u767c\u5c04\u8eca\u548c\u9632\u7a7a\u6b66\u5668\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u80fd\u767c\u5c04\u5de1\u5f0b\u98db\u5f48\u653b\u64ca\u89e3\u653e\u8ecd\u7684\u8ecd\u8266\u8ddf\u6f5b\u8247\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8c9d\u514b\u5229\u70ba\u52a0\u5f37\u81ea\u5df1\u8ad6\u8ff0\u7684\u8aaa\u670d\u529b\u88dc\u5145\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u9762\u5c0d\u9019\u985e\u885d\u7a81\u6642\u6bd4\u7f8e\u570b\u6210\u529f\u3001\u6709\u7d93\u9a57\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u57f7\u884c\u5169\u68f2\u653b\u64ca\u4efb\u52d9\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u4ecd\u4e0d\u4f3c\u904e\u53bb\u660e\u6717\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c<span style=\"color: #800000\"><strong>\u8c9d\u514b\u5229\u9084\u7279\u5225\u6307\u51fa\u53f0\u7063\u53ea\u6709 10\uff05\u7684\u6d77\u5cb8\u7dda\u9069\u5408\u5169\u68f2\u767b\u9678\uff0c\u9019\u8b93\u53f0\u5317\u53ef\u4ee5\u96c6\u4e2d\u8ecd\u529b\u9632\u5b88\u8981\u5730\uff0c\u8b93\u8a66\u5716\u767b\u9678\u7684\u89e3\u653e\u8ecd\u53ef\u80fd\u5be1\u4e0d\u6575\u773e\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u672c\u6587\u63d0\u4f9b\u5408\u4f5c\u5925\u4f34\u8f49\u8f09\uff0c\u9996\u5716\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a class=\"owner-name truncate\" title=\"\u79fb\u81f3 Travis Wise \u7684\u6240\u6709\u76f8\u7247\" href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/photographingtravis\/\">Travis Wise<\/a>\uff0cCC liscened\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n<h2>\u53c3\u8003\u8cc7\u6599<\/h2>\n<p>The National Interest\u300b<a href=\"http:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/blog\/the-buzz\/why-china-cant-conquer-taiwan-war-23254\">Why China Can&#8217;t Conquer Taiwan in a War<\/a><\/p>\n<h2>\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u4e5f\u60f3\u770b\u9019\u4e9b\u6587\u7ae0<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/2017\/10\/20\/will-china-break-out-war\/\">\u300c\u4e2d\u570b\u53f0\u7063\u300d\u8001\u4eba\u4e0d\u8981\u518d\u62ff\u300c\u4e2d\u570b\u6703\u6253\u904e\u4f86\u300d\u5835\u53f0\u7368\uff01\u6211\u5011\u5e74\u8f15\u4eba\u53ef\u4e0d\u662f\u88ab\u5687\u5927\u7684<br \/>\n<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/2017\/10\/05\/china-cant-fight-tw\/\">\u5225\u518d\u4e82\u50b3\u300c\u4e2d\u5171\u89e3\u653e\u53f0\u7063\u5169\u5468\u5c31\u5920\u300d\u7684\u8b20\u8a00\uff01\u9109\u6c11\u795e\u89e3\u70ba\u4f55\u5169\u5cb8\u958b\u6230\u4e2d\u570b\u6703\u662f\u5f31\u52e2<br \/>\n<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/2017\/01\/13\/taiwan-bs-china-war\/\">\u53f0\u7063\u8ca1\u7d93\u4f5c\u5bb6\u7684\u89c0\u5bdf\uff1a\u4e2d\u570b\u82e5\u5c0d\u53f0\u958b\u6230\u662f\u300c\u4e0d\u5c0d\u7b49\u6230\u722d\u300d\uff0c\u6211\u6562\u8aaa\u53f0\u7063\u4e00\u5b9a\u8d0f<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4e2d\u570b\u5982\u679c\u771f\u5fc3\u8981\u8ddf\u53f0\u7063\u958b\u6230\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u80fd\u6490\u5e7e\u5929\uff1f \u9664\u4e86\u7d71\u6d3e\u6700\u611b\u5a01\u8105\u300c\u8ddf\u4e2d\u5171\u958b\u6230\u300d\uff0c\u8eab\u70ba\u53f0\u7063\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u90fd\u5c0d\u81ea\u5bb6\u570b\u8ecd\u548c\u5175\u529b\u6c92\u81ea\u4fe1\u5427\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u5728\u4e2d\u5171 19 \u5927\u978f\u56fa\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u6b0a\u529b\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u5ddd\u666e\u4e0a\u4efb\u5f8c\u7f8e\u570b\u5167\u90e8\u7e3d\u662f\u5206\u88c2\u3001\u610f\u898b\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6c92[&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":133,"featured_media":27332,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[43,3616,1089,82,1042],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8263"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/133"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8263"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8263\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/27332"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8263"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8263"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8263"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}