{"id":4263,"date":"2019-09-06T11:01:28","date_gmt":"2019-09-06T03:01:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/2019\/09\/06\/bonnie-glaser-talked-about-two-strait-issue\/"},"modified":"2019-09-06T11:01:28","modified_gmt":"2019-09-06T03:01:28","slug":"bonnie-glaser-talked-about-two-strait-issue","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/2019\/09\/06\/bonnie-glaser-talked-about-two-strait-issue\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u5c0f\u82f1\u9023\u4efb\u4e0d\u6703\u6380\u53f0\u6d77\u6230\u722d\u3011\u7f8e\u5b78\u8005\u845b\u4f86\u5100\uff1a2020 \u85cd\u71df\u7acb\u9662\u4f54\u591a\u6578\uff0c\u624d\u6703\u8b93\u4e2d\u5171\u81ea\u4fe1\u5c0d\u53f0\u767c\u8d77\u300c\u87d2\u86c7\u6230\u7565\u300d"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>\u3010\u6211\u5011\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u9078\u64c7\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\uff1f\u3011<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u5171\u662f\u5426\u6703\u5c0d\u53f0\u7063\u958b\u6230\uff0c\u7e3d\u662f\u5169\u5cb8\u6700\u71b1\u8b70\u8a71\u984c\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u00a0CSIS \u667a\u5eab\u7684\u4e9e\u6d32\u9867\u554f\u845b\u840a\u5100\u8fd1\u671f\u5c31\u5728\u300c\u7f8e\u4e2d\u95dc\u4fc2\u56de\u9867\u300d\u807d\u8b49\u6703\u4e0a\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u5f37\u8abf\u53f0\u7063\u672a\u4f86\u5927\u9078\u5c07\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\u53f0\u6d77\u885d\u7a81\u3002\u5c31\u5979\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u82e5\u7e3d\u7d71\u8521\u82f1\u6587\u9023\u4efb\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u53cd\u5012\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u9032\u72af\u53f0\u7063\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f\uff08\u8cac\u4efb\u7de8\u8f2f\uff1a\u9ec3\u6885\u8339\uff09<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<div id=\"attachment_169317\" style=\"width: 850px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-169317\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-large wp-image-169317\" src=\"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/1182x768_20190625000064-1024x665.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"840\" height=\"546\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-169317\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u5de6\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u00a0CSIS \u667a\u5eab\u4e9e\u6d32\u9867\u554f\u845b\u840a\u5100\uff0c\u6700\u53f3\u8005\u70ba\u7e3d\u7d71\u8521\u82f1\u6587\uff0c\u9996\u5716\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cna.com.tw\/news\/aipl\/201906250130.aspx\">\u4e2d\u592e\u793e<\/a>\u3002<\/p><\/div>\n<p>\u83ef\u5e9c\u667a\u5eab\u6230\u7565\u66a8\u570b\u969b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\uff08CSIS\uff09\u4e9e\u6d32\u4e8b\u52d9\u8cc7\u6df1\u9867\u554f\u845b\u840a\u5100\uff08 Bonnie Glaser\uff09\uff0c4 \u65e5\u51fa\u5e2d\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u6703\u300c2019 \u5e74\u7f8e\u4e2d\u95dc\u4fc2\u56de\u9867\u300d\u7684\u807d\u8b49\u6703\u6642\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u60c5\u52e2\u767c\u5c55\u5c0d\u53f0\u7063\u6709\u91cd\u5927\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u8fd1\u671f\u53f0\u6d77\u767c\u751f\u885d\u7a81\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u570b\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u5c0d\u53f0\u7063\u5931\u53bb\u8010\u5fc3\uff0c\u672a\u4f86 5 \u5230 10 \u5e74\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u53f0\u6d77\u885d\u7a81\u7684\u5f15\u7206\u9ede\uff08tipping point\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u5834\u807d\u8b49\u6703\u7531\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u6703\u8a2d\u7acb\u7684\u300c\u7f8e\u4e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u66a8\u5b89\u5168\u6aa2\u8a0e\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff08USCC\uff09\u300d\u8209\u8fa6\uff0c\u845b\u840a\u5100\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u9999\u6e2f\u53cd\u9001\u4e2d\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u8b93\u53f0\u7063\u5c0d\u65bc\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u300c\u4e00\u570b\u5169\u5236\u300d\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u7591\u616e\uff0c\u300c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u652f\u6301\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u6709\u66f4\u597d\u95dc\u4fc2\u7684\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\uff0c\u4e5f\u73cd\u8996\u4ed6\u5011\u73fe\u5728\u6240\u64c1\u6709\u7684\u81ea\u7531\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5979\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u6297\u722d\u767c\u751f\u4efb\u4f55\u66b4\u529b\u93ae\u58d3\uff0c\u90a3\u5c07\u5c0d\u53f0\u7063\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u7522\u751f\u6df1\u9060\u548c\u9577\u4e45\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u82e5 2020 \u5728\u7e3d\u7d71\u3001\u7acb\u59d4\u5e2d\u6b21\u4f54\u512a\u52e2\uff0c\u6703\u8b93\u4e2d\u570b\u52d5\u7528\u300c\u87d2\u86c7\u6230\u7565\u300d<\/h2>\n<p>\u300a\u7f8e\u570b\u4e4b\u97f3\u300b\u5831\u5c0e\uff0c\u845b\u840a\u5100\u6307\u51fa\uff0c<span style=\"color: #800000;\"><strong>\u76ee\u524d\u53f0\u6d77\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u4e0d\u6703\u767c\u751f\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5982\u679c\u7e3d\u7d71\u8521\u82f1\u6587\u9023\u4efb\uff0c\u4e0d\u592a\u53ef\u80fd\u63a1\u53d6\u6fc0\u9032\u7684\u53f0\u7368\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u800c\u5c07\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u903c\u5230\u7246\u89d2\u5f15\u767c\u8ecd\u4e8b\u53cd\u61c9\uff1b\u82e5\u662f\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u5728\u7acb\u6cd5\u9662\u53d6\u5f97\u591a\u6578\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u5c07\u53ef\u80fd\u4fe1\u5fc3\u5927\u589e\uff0c\u5c0d\u53f0\u7063\u63a1\u53d6\u5916\u4ea4\u5c01\u9396\u7684\u300c\u87d2\u86c7\u6230\u7565\u300d\uff08anaconda strategy\uff09\uff0c\u6bd4\u8d77\u767c\u8d77\u6230\u722d\uff0c\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u66f4\u70ba\u6709\u5229\u3002<\/strong><\/span>\uff08\u300aBO\u300b\u7de8\u6309\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u9081\u963f\u5bc6\u5927\u5b78\u653f\u6cbb\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u91d1\u5fb7\u82b3\uff08June Teufel Dreyer\uff09\u5728 2018 \u5e74 8 \u6708\u520a\u767b\u5c08\u6587\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u300c<a href=\"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/2018\/08\/15\/us-professor-talk-about-china\/\">\u87d2\u86c7\u7b56\u7565<\/a>\u300d\u4e00\u8a5e\u3002\u5979\u628a\u4e2d\u570b\u5f9e\u5916\u4ea4\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u8ecd\u4e8b\u5230\u5c0d\u53f0\u7063\u985b\u8986\u6ef2\u900f\u7684\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u6253\u58d3\u6d3b\u52d5\uff0c\u6bd4\u55bb\u70ba\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u300c\u87d2\u86c7\u7b56\u7565\u300d\uff0c\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u8981\u8feb\u4f7f\u53f0\u7063\u6295\u964d\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u82e5 2020 \u5e74\u7531\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u7e3d\u7d71\u5019\u9078\u4eba\u97d3\u570b\u745c\u7576\u9078\uff0c\u845b\u840a\u5100\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u53f0\u6d77\u5169\u5cb8\u95dc\u4fc2\u81f3\u5c11\u5c07\u6709\u5e7e\u5e74\u7372\u5f97\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u53f0\u7063\u4eba\u6c11\u5c0d\u65bc\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u904e\u5ea6\u63a5\u8fd1\u7684\u64d4\u6182\uff0c\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u9650\u5236\u97d3\u570b\u745c\u555f\u52d5\u5169\u5cb8\u653f\u6cbb\u5354\u5546\uff0c\u6216\u63a1\u53d6\u5176\u4ed6\u53ef\u80fd\u5f15\u767c\u5167\u90e8\u722d\u8b70\u800c\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u524a\u5f31\u97d3\u7684\u4f5c\u70ba\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u662f\u9577\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u845b\u840a\u5100\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u82e5\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u5728\u5167\u90e8\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u7d71\u4e00\u7684\u58d3\u529b\u4e0d\u65b7\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u5c0d\u53f0\u7063\u5931\u53bb\u8010\u5fc3\uff0c\u672a\u4f86 5 \u5230 10 \u5e74\u5167\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u53f0\u6d77\u885d\u7a81\u7684\u300c\u5f15\u7206\u9ede\u300d\uff08tipping point\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5979\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u5169\u5cb8\u8ecd\u529b\u671d\u5411\u4e2d\u570b\u50be\u659c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u89e3\u653e\u8ecd\u5728\u53f0\u6d77\u885d\u7a81\u4e2d\u80fd\u5920\u64ca\u6557\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u8a55\u4f30\uff0c\u6703\u8b93\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u76f8\u4fe1\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u89e3\u6c7a\u53f0\u7063\u554f\u984c\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u300c\u53f0\u7063\u8981\u8b93\u5317\u4eac\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u53f0\u6709\u8db3\u5920\u81ea\u6211\u9632\u885b\u6c7a\u5fc3\u300d<\/h2>\n<p>\u5831\u5c0e\u7a31\uff0c\u845b\u840a\u5100\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u4eba\u6c11\u662f\u5426\u6709\u6c7a\u5fc3\u7dad\u8b77\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5b89\u5168\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5317\u4eac\u300c\u5c0d\u53f0\u7063\u4eba\u6c11\u81ea\u885b\u6c7a\u5fc3\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u300d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u6709\u7fa9\u52d9\u5354\u52a9\u9632\u885b\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u5c0d\u53f0\u7063\u4eba\u6c11\u81ea\u885b\u6c7a\u5fc3\u7684\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u97ff\u5317\u4eac\u662f\u5426\u5c0d\u53f0\u52d5\u6b66\uff0c\u6216\u7f8e\u570b\u5982\u4f55\u5354\u9632\u53f0\u7063\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u845b\u840a\u5100\u8aaa\uff0c\u7f8e\u53f0\u90fd\u5fc5\u9808\u505a\u66f4\u591a\uff0c\u8b93\u5317\u4eac\u653f\u5e9c\u76f8\u4fe1\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u300c\u6709\u8db3\u5920\u7684\u81ea\u6211\u9632\u885b\u6c7a\u5fc3\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u7f8e\u570b\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u53f0\u7063\u6709\u81ea\u885b\u6c7a\u5fc3\u624d\u80fd\u5354\u52a9\u53f0\u7063\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5979\u5411\u570b\u6703\u63d0\u51fa\u653f\u7b56\u5efa\u8b70\uff0c\u7a31\u61c9\u5354\u52a9\u53f0\u7063\u53cd\u5236\u4e2d\u570b\u5c0d\u53f0\u7684\u9078\u8209\u5e72\u9810\uff0c\u4e5f\u547c\u7c72\u5ddd\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u5f37\u5316\u8207\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u95dc\u4fc2\uff1b\u61c9\u900f\u904e\u53c3\u8b70\u54e1\u9b6f\u6bd4\u6b50\uff08Marco Rubio\uff09\u7b49\u4eba2\u6708\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u300a\u53cd\u5236\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u8207\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u653f\u6cbb\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u6d3b\u52d5\u6cd5\u6848\u300b\uff0c\u4e26\u901a\u904e\u300a2019\u5e74\u53f0\u7063\u4fdd\u8b49\u6cd5\u300b\uff0c\u91cd\u7533\u7f8e\u570b\u5c0d\u53f0\u7063\u53ca\u65bd\u884c\u300a\u53f0\u7063\u95dc\u4fc2\u6cd5\u300b\u7684\u627f\u8afe\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u5ef6\u4f38\u95b1\u8b80<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/2018\/08\/15\/us-professor-talk-about-china\/\">\u5225\u518d\u653e\u4efb\u4e2d\u570b\u7528\u300c\u87d2\u86c7\u7b56\u7565\u300d\u903c\u8feb\u53f0\u7063\u4e86\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5b78\u8005\u547c\u7c72\u7f8e\u53f0\u806f\u5408\u8ecd\u6f14<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/2019\/01\/19\/ko-wenzhe-robbery-saying-of-taiwan-china-us-relationship\/\">\u3010\u845b\u4f86\u5100\u5426\u8a8d\u9080\u8a2a\u7f8e\u570b\u5f8c\u3011\u67ef\u6587\u54f2\u7528\u300c\u5f37\u76dc\u8aaa\u300d\u770b\u7f8e\u4e2d\u53f0\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u6703\u4e0d\u6703\u5c0d\u570b\u969b\u91cb\u653e\u932f\u8aa4\u8a0a\u606f\uff1f<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/2019\/08\/20\/what-the-difference-between-china-and-taiwan\/\">\u53f0\u7063\u5916\u63f4\u4e0d\u662f\u5927\u6492\u5e63\uff01\u7f8e\u667a\u5eab\u5831\u544a\u63ed\u9732\uff1a\u4e2d\u570b\u5982\u4f55\u8b93\u53d7\u63f4\u570b\u9677\u300c\u9322\u7522\u5169\u5931\u300d\u98a8\u96aa<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/2019\/06\/26\/why-us-dont-have-clear-relationship-with-taiwan\/\">\u3010\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u53cb\u53f0\u601d\u8def\u5927\u5256\u6790\u3011\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u570b\u771f\u7684\u652f\u6301\u53f0\u7063\uff0c\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e0d\u76f4\u63a5\u8ddf\u53f0\u7063\u5efa\u4ea4\uff1f<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u672c\u6587\u7d93\u5408\u4f5c\u5925\u4f34 \u4e0a\u5831 \u6388\u6b0a\u8f49\u8f09\uff0c\u4e26\u540c\u610f BuzzOrange \u7de8\u5beb\u5c0e\u8b80\u8207\u4fee\u8a02\u6a19\u984c\uff0c\u539f\u6587\u6a19\u984c\u70ba\u3008<a href=\"https:\/\/www.upmedia.mg\/news_info.php?SerialNo=70829\">\u8521\u82f1\u6587\u9023\u4efb\u7e3d\u7d71\u3000\u845b\u840a\u5100\uff1a\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u5c07\u5c0d\u53f0\u7063\u63a1\u53d6\u5916\u4ea4\u300c\u87d2\u86c7\u6230\u7565\u300d<\/a>\u3009\u3002\u9996\u5716\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cna.com.tw\/news\/aipl\/201906250130.aspx\">\u4e2d\u592e\u793e<\/a>\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n<pre>\u66f4\u591a\u4e0a\u5831\u597d\u6587\u8acb\u770b\uff1a\r\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.upmedia.mg\/news_info.php?SerialNo=70476\">\u3010\u7368\u5bb6\u3011\u5433\u6566\u7fa9\u6d3e\u5f35\u986f\u8000\u3000\u5bc6\u6703\u570b\u53f0\u8fa6\u53ca\u90ed\u53f0\u9298\u63d0\u63db\u745c\u300c\u5099\u80ce\u8a08\u5283\u300d<\/a>\r\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.upmedia.mg\/news_info.php?SerialNo=70612\">\u3010\u7da0\u71df\u7f55\u898b\u5c0d\u67ef\u958b\u70ae\u3011\u4ed6\u4e00\u53e5\u300c\u6c11\u9032\u9ee8\u7e3d\u7d71\u7af6\u9078\u9810\u7b97\u624d\u53ef\u6015\u300d\u3000\u5353\u69ae\u6cf02\u5ea6\u6012\u56de<\/a>\r\n<a 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