{"id":4092,"date":"2019-10-02T15:55:34","date_gmt":"2019-10-02T07:55:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/2019\/10\/02\/fed-nightmare-may-appear\/"},"modified":"2019-10-02T15:55:34","modified_gmt":"2019-10-02T07:55:34","slug":"fed-nightmare-may-appear","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/2019\/10\/02\/fed-nightmare-may-appear\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u6700\u5927\u5922\u9b58\u6703\u4f86\u55ce\u3011\u9023\u7e8c 2 \u500b\u6708\u964d\u606f\uff016 \u4f4d\u8ca1\u7d93\u5c08\u5bb6\u5206\u6790\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u5c07\u73fe\u7d93\u6fdf\u5371\u6a5f\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u3010\u6211\u5011\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u9078\u64c7\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\uff1f\u3011<\/p>\n

\u70ba\u4e86\u61c9\u4ed8\u4e0b\u6ed1\u7684\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u6e96\u6703\uff08FED\uff09\u777d\u9055 11 \u5e74\uff0c\u5728\u4eca\u5e74 8 \u6708\u9996\u6b21\u964d\u606f<\/a>\uff0c\u6642\u9694\u4e00\u500b\u534a\u6708\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u53c8\u70ba\u5354\u52a9\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u62b5\u79a6\u7f8e\u4e2d\u8cbf\u6613\u6230\uff0c\u518d\u300c\u964d 1 \u78bc\u300d<\/a>\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u5ddd\u666e\u9084\u6012\u8f5f\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u300c\u6c92\u9060\u898b\u300d\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u61c9\u518d\u964d\u66f4\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5982\u4eca\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u50b5\u5238\u5e02\u5834\u518d\u6b21\u63a8\u4f30\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703 10 \u6708\u6709\u671b\u518d\u964d\u606f<\/a>\u3002\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u5be6\u65bd\u7684\u4e00\u9023\u4e32\u964d\u606f\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u771f\u7684\u4e0d\u6703\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u5e36\u4f86\u8ca0\u9762\u5f71\u97ff\u55ce\uff1f\uff08\u8cac\u4efb\u7de8\u8f2f\uff1a\u9ec3\u6885\u8339\uff09<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"\"

\u7f8e\u570b\u7e3d\u7d71\u5ddd\u666e\uff08\u5de6\uff09\u8207\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u723e\uff08\u53f3\uff09\uff0c\u9996\u5716\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a\u4e2d\u592e\u793e<\/a>\u3002<\/p><\/div>\n

\u6587\uff0f\u5f35\u7956\u4ec1<\/a><\/p>\n

\u806f\u6e96\u6703 (Fed) \u9762\u81e8\u5f9e\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u548c\u5ddd\u666e\u7e3d\u7d71\u964d\u606f\u7684\u58d3\u529b\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u672c\u6708\u521d\u6c99\u70cf\u5730\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u6cb9\u7530\u906d\u53d7\u8972\u64ca\u5f8c\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u51fa\u73fe\u77ed\u66ab\u7684\u6cb9\u50f9\u98c6\u5347\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u7a2e\u964d\u606f\u7b56\u7565\u5e36\u4f86\u4e00\u500b\u554f\u984c\uff1a\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7531\u7d93\u6fdf\u8da8\u7de9\u52a0\u4e0a\u7269\u50f9\u4e0a\u63da\u5f62\u6210\u7684\u505c\u6eef\u6027\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\uff0c\u5176\u5a01\u8105\u53ef\u80fd\u4f7f Fed \u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u723e\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u66f4\u52a0\u56f0\u96e3\u3002\u5728\u63a1\u53d6\u4efb\u4f55\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u964d\u606f\u63aa\u65bd\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c07\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u52a0\u95dc\u6ce8\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u3002<\/p>\n

\u82e5\u7f8e\u4e2d\u52a0\u5fb5\u95dc\u7a05\uff0c\u7269\u50f9\uff0b\u77f3\u6cb9\u4e0a\u6f32\u6703\u640d\u5bb3\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf<\/h2>\n

BNY Mellon \u7684 Lockwood Advisors \u6295\u8cc7\u9577 Matt Forester \u8aaa\uff1a\u300cFed \u5c31\u50cf\u662f\u58d8\u4e0a\u8dd1\u8005\uff0c\u8eab\u8655\u4e00\u58d8\u548c\u4e8c\u58d8\u9593\u9762\u5c0d\u4e00\u500b\u9ad8\u98db\u7403\u3002\u300d\u300c\u9019\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u6578\u64da\u4f9d\u8cf4\u6027\u548c\u53cd\u61c9\u529b\u3002\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u6cb9\u50f9\u5c07\u6703\u662f\u6975\u5177\u6eef\u8139\u7684\u9707\u76ea\u6027\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

Forrester \u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u64d4\u5fc3\u4e2d\u570b\u548c\u6b50\u6d32\u7d93\u6fdf\u75b2\u8edf\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u662f\u300c\u4e0d\u53d7\u6b61\u8fce\u7684\u6d88\u606f\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u88dc\u5145\u8aaa\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7f8e\u570b\u548c\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u8cbf\u6613\u65b9\u9762\u6c92\u6709\u9054\u6210\u5354\u8b70\uff0c\u800c\u4eca\u5e74\u7a0d\u665a\u6642\u958b\u59cb\u52a0\u5fb5\u66f4\u591a\u95dc\u7a05\uff0c\u5247\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u8a31\u591a\u6d88\u8cbb\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u6f32\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u77f3\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u9577\u671f\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0c\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u640d\u5bb3\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Forrester \u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u76ee\u524d\u6700\u5927\u7684\u64d4\u6182\u662f\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u6cb9\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5f71\u97ff GDP\u3002\u300d\u300c\u4f86\u81ea\u8cbf\u6613\u548c\u95dc\u7a05\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u5176\u4ed6\u885d\u64ca\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5177\u6eef\u8139\u6027\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u5c0d\u83ef\u5e9c\u548c\u5317\u4eac\u6700\u7d42\u9054\u6210\u8cbf\u6613\u5354\u8b70\u7684\u671f\u671b\u6700\u8fd1\u5e6b\u52a9\u63d0\u632f\u4e86\u80a1\u5e02\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u6c99\u70cf\u5730\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u548c\u8449\u9580\u4e4b\u9593\u4f11\u6230\u7684\u671f\u671b\uff0c\u6cb9\u50f9\u6709\u6240\u56de\u843d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u662f\u5ddd\u666e\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u4e00\u76f4\u6301\u8b39\u614e\u614b\u5ea6\u3002\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e00\u4e9b\u5c08\u5bb6\u4ecd\u7136\u6c92\u6709\u5c07\u6eef\u8139\u8996\u70ba\u5a01\u8105\u6307\u65e5\u53ef\u5f85\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u707d\u96e3\u7684\u6839\u6e90\uff1a\u7269\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9<\/h2>\n

\u6469\u6839\u58eb\u4e39\u5229\u8ca1\u5bcc\u7ba1\u7406 (Morgan Stanley Wealth Management) \u6295\u8cc7\u9577 Lisa Shalett \u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u5831\u544a\u4e2d\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u300c\u5728\u8cbf\u6613\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5177\u5efa\u8a2d\u6027\u4e14\u4fc3\u9032\u6210\u9577\u7684\u5354\u6613\u524d\u666f\u6b63\u5728\u8fc5\u901f\u6d88\u9000\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u9019\u589e\u52a0\u4e86 Fed \u6700\u7d42\u5c07\u9762\u81e8\u6eef\u8139\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u56e0\u95dc\u7a05\u9020\u6210\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u653e\u7de9\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u6eef\u8139\u78ba\u5be6\u62ac\u982d\uff0c\u90a3\u5c0d\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u4f86\u8aaa\u7576\u7136\u662f\u500b\u554f\u984c\u3002\u5c0d\u65bc\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u707d\u96e3\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u56de\u9867 40 \u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u7f8e\u570b\u56e0\u6c7d\u6cb9\u50f9\u683c\u66b4\u6f32\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u505c\u6eef\u800c\u7671\u7613\u3002<\/p>\n

Research Affiliates \u5408\u5925\u4eba\u517c\u6295\u8cc7\u9577 Chris Brightman \u8868\u793a\uff1a\u300c\u985e\u4f3c\u65bc 1970 \u5e74\u4ee3\u5f8c\u671f\u6eef\u8139\u7684\u56de\u5831\u5c0d\u8cc7\u672c\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u56de\u5831\u610f\u5473\u8457\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f\u5728 1970 \u5e74\u4ee3\u7684\u6574\u500b 10 \u5e74\u4e2d\uff0c\u50b5\u5238\u548c\u73fe\u91d1\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u8ca0\u503c\u56de\u5831\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u610f\u5916\u7684\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u4f7f\u5be6\u969b\u5229\u7387\u8b8a\u6210\u8ca0\u503c\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u9084\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u4eba\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0cFed \u4e0d\u5fc5\u592a\u64d4\u5fc3\u901a\u81a8\u3002<\/p>\n

D.A. Davidson \u8ca1\u5bcc\u7ba1\u7406\u7814\u7a76\u90e8\u4e3b\u4efb James Ragan \u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u6eef\u8139\u4e0d\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u98a8\u96aa\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u52a0\u5fb5\u95dc\u7a05\uff0c\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7387\u4ecd\u7136\u5f88\u4f4e\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u5305\u62ec\u9ad8\u6ce2\u52d5\u6027\u80fd\u6e90\u548c\u98df\u54c1\u5728\u5167\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u50f9\uff0c\u5728 8 \u6708\u50c5\u540c\u6bd4\u6210\u9577 2.4%\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u9019\u662f 2018 \u5e74 7 \u6708\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u4f4e\u65bc\u653f\u5e9c\u5728\u4e0a\u6b21\u5c31\u696d\u5831\u544a\u4e2d\u5831\u544a\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u85aa\u6210\u9577\u7387 3.2%\u3002<\/p>\n

\u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u5de5\u4eba\u7684\u85aa\u6c34\u4e0d\u662f\u53ea\u8ddf\u4e0a\u7269\u50f9\u4e0a\u6f32\u7684\u6b65\u4f10\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6709\u904e\u4e4b\u800c\u7121\u4e0d\u53ca\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c08\u5bb6\uff1a\u76ee\u524d\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u4ecd\u8655\u65bc\u63a7\u5236\u4e4b\u4e2d<\/h2>\n

INTL FCStone \u7f8e\u570b\u6a5f\u69cb\u80a1\u7968\u4e3b\u7ba1\u517c\u5168\u7403\u5e02\u5834\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b Yousef Abbasi \u8868\u793a\uff1a\u300c\u4eba\u5011\u4e26\u4e0d\u771f\u6b63\u64d4\u5fc3\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u7121\u8ad6\u662f\u8207\u95dc\u7a05\u6709\u95dc\u9084\u662f\u8207\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u53cd\u5f48\u6709\u95dc\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u88dc\u5145\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u5341\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u548c\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u6e2c\u8005\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u8ac7\u8ad6\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7387\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u6f5b\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u5f9e\u672a\u5be6\u73fe\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u5118\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u4ecd\u7136\u4ee4\u4eba\u64d4\u6182\uff0c\u4ea4\u6613\u54e1\u5011\u4e0d\u518d\u8a8d\u70ba Fed \u5728 10 \u6708 30 \u65e5\u4e0b\u6b21\u6703\u8b70\u4e0a\u518d\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u662f\u78ba\u5b9a\u7684\u62bc\u6ce8\u3002\u6839\u64da CME \u7684\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u671f\u8ca8\u5408\u7d04\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u4eba\u73fe\u5728\u6b63\u5728\u4ee5\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u9032\u884c\u5b9a\u50f9\uff0c\u4f30\u8a08 Fed \u6709 55% \u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u4fdd\u6301\u5229\u7387\u7a69\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n

Helios Quantitative Research \u6295\u8cc7\u9577 Joe Mallen \u8868\u793a\uff1a\u300c\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u53ef\u80fd\u6b63\u5728\u52a0\u5287\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u5011\u96e2\u5931\u63a7\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u672b\u65e5\u9084\u5dee\u5f97\u5f88\u9060\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u88dc\u5145\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u5118\u7ba1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7387\u7565\u6709\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u800c\u7d93\u6fdf\u9084\u6c92\u6709\u8870\u9000\u5230\u4ee4\u4eba\u4e0d\u5b89\uff0cFed \u61c9\u8a72\u5750\u4e0b\u4f86\u3002\u5b83\u53ef\u4ee5\u62ed\u76ee\u4ee5\u5f85\uff0c\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u523a\u6fc0\u7d93\u6fdf\u6216\u5347\u606f\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u5ef6\u4f38\u95b1\u8b80<\/h2>\n

\u30109 \u5927\u7d93\u6fdf\u6307\u6578\u4eae\u8d77\u7d05\u71c8\u3011Fed \u5ba3\u5e03\u964d\u606f\u5f8c\uff0c\u300c\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u300d\u8e8d\u5347\u7f8e\u71b1\u641c\u95dc\u9375\u5b57<\/a><\/p>\n

\u3010\u806f\u6e96\u6703 6 \u9031\u5167 2 \u5ea6\u964d\u606f\u3011\u5ddd\u666e\u65bd\u58d3\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u964d\u5230 0\uff0c\u9b91\u723e\u50c5\u300c\u964d 1 \u78bc\u300d\u6328\u8f5f\u300c\u6c92\u9060\u898b\u300d<\/a><\/p>\n

\u30102008 \u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u5f8c\u9996\u6b21\u964d\u606f\u3011\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u597d\u5f97\u5f88\uff0c\u806f\u6e96\u6703\u7a81\u7136\u5ba3\u4f48\u300c\u964d\u606f 1 \u78bc\u300d\u6240\u70ba\u4f55\u4f86\uff1f<\/a><\/p>\n

\uff08\u672c\u6587\u7d93\u5408\u4f5c\u5925\u4f34 \u9245\u4ea8\u7db2 \u6388\u6b0a\u8f49\u8f09\uff0c\u4e26\u540c\u610f BuzzOrange \u7de8\u5beb\u5c0e\u8b80\u8207\u4fee\u8a02\u6a19\u984c\uff0c\u539f\u6587\u6a19\u984c\u70ba\u3008\u505c\u6eef\u6027\u901a\u81a8\uff1aFed\u6700\u5927\u7684\u5922\u9b58\u53ef\u80fd\u5373\u5c07\u51fa\u73fe<\/a>\u3009\u3002\u9996\u5716\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a\u4e2d\u592e\u793e<\/a>\u3002\uff09<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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