{"id":3330,"date":"2020-01-20T14:59:11","date_gmt":"2020-01-20T06:59:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/2020\/01\/20\/canary-in-a-coal-mine\/"},"modified":"2020-01-20T14:59:11","modified_gmt":"2020-01-20T06:59:11","slug":"canary-in-a-coal-mine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/2020\/01\/20\/canary-in-a-coal-mine\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5c0f\u82f1\u6297\u4e2d\u3001\u6fb3\u6d32\u5927\u706b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u90fd\u88ab\u63d0\u53ca\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u8853\u8a9e\uff01\u91d1\u7d72\u96c0\u6210\u8b66\u8a0a\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u7528\u8da3\u5473\u63d2\u5716\u89e3\u300c\u7926\u5751\u88e1\u7684\u91d1\u7d72\u96c0\u300d"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>\u3010\u6211\u5011\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u9078\u64c7\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\uff1f\u3011<\/p>\n<p>\u516c\u90e8\u9580\u8207\u6c11\u773e\u4e92\u52d5\u4e0d\u518d\u51b7\u51b0\u51b0\uff0c\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u8fd1\u4f86\u5e38\u900f\u904e\u81c9\u66f8\u7c89\u5c08\uff0c\u4ee5\u6dfa\u767d\u6587\u5b57\u50b3\u9054\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u6216\u7528\u63d2\u5716\u642d\u914d\u6545\u4e8b\u6027\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u89e3\u6790\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u7b49\u5c08\u6709\u540d\u8a5e\uff0c\u8b93\u6c11\u773e\u770b\u81c9\u66f8\u4e5f\u80fd\u9577\u77e5\u8b58\uff01<\/p>\n<p>\u592e\u884c\u8fd1\u65e5\u89e3\u91cb\u4e00\u500b\u91d1\u878d\u5c08\u6709\u540d\u8a5e\u300c\u7926\u5751\u88e1\u7684\u91d1\u7d72\u96c0\u300d\uff0c\u6709\u5371\u6a5f\u9810\u5146\u4e4b\u610f\uff0c\u96d6\u662f\u91d1\u878d\u7528\u8a9e\uff0c\u537b\u80fd\u5957\u7528\u5230\u74b0\u5883\u8b70\u984c\uff0c\u001d\u7e3d\u7d71\u8521\u82f1\u6587\u9084\u66fe\u4f7f\u7528\u9019\u500b\u91d1\u878d\u8853\u8a9e<a href=\"https:\/\/tw.news.yahoo.com\/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E6%89%93%E5%A3%93-%E8%94%A1-%E5%8F%B0%E5%B0%B1%E5%83%8F%E7%A4%A6%E5%9D%91%E8%A3%A1%E7%9A%84%E9%87%91%E7%B5%B2%E9%9B%80-030010124.html\">\u63d0\u9192\u4e16\u754c<\/a>\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u5982\u4f55\u6253\u58d3\u53f0\u7063\u3002\u4e00\u540c\u4f86\u770b\u9019\u500b\u842c\u7528\u8853\u8a9e\uff0c\u80cc\u5f8c\u860a\u542b\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6a23\u7684\u539f\u7406\u3002\uff08\u8cac\u4efb\u7de8\u8f2f\uff1a\u9ec3\u6885\u8339\uff09<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<div id=\"attachment_182299\" style=\"width: 970px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-182299\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-full wp-image-182299\" src=\"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/960x863_365647939701.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"960\" height=\"863\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-182299\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u70ba\u4e86\u8b93\u793e\u6703\u5927\u773e\u66f4\u4e86\u89e3\u7d93\u6fdf\u8207\u91d1\u878d\u5c40\u52e2\uff0c\u5e38\u5728\u81c9\u66f8\u958b\u8ab2\uff0c17\u65e5\u4ee5\u6df1\u5165\u6dfa\u51fa\u8a71\u8a9e\uff0c\u89e3\u6790\u300c\u7926\u5751\u88e1\u7684\u91d1\u7d72\u96c0\u300d\u4e00\u8a5e\u3002\u9996\u5716\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a\u622a\u81ea<a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/cbc.gov.tw\/photos\/a.1991441454273428\/2683317208419179\/?type=3\">\u592e\u884c\u7c89\u5c08<\/a>\u3002<\/p><\/div>\n<p>\u8ca8\u5e63\u91d1\u878d\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\u60c5\u52e2\u662f\u91cd\u8981\u8b70\u984c\uff0c\u4f46\u6c11\u773e\u5e38\u56e0\u4e0d\u5177\u76f8\u95dc\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u6703\u8a8d\u70ba\u76f8\u95dc\u9818\u57df\u8271\u6f80\u96e3\u61c2\uff1b\u4e2d\u592e\u9280\u884c\u70ba\u4e86\u8b93\u793e\u6703\u5927\u773e\u66f4\u4e86\u89e3\u7d93\u6fdf\u8207\u91d1\u878d\u5c40\u52e2\uff0c\u5e38\u5728\u81c9\u66f8\u958b\u8ab2\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\uff0817 \u65e5\uff09\u4ee5\u6df1\u5165\u6dfa\u51fa\u8a71\u8a9e\uff0c\u89e3\u6790\u300c\u7926\u5751\u88e1\u7684\u91d1\u7d72\u96c0\u300d\u4e00\u8a5e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6c11\u773e\u82e5\u60f3\u4e86\u89e3\u7d93\u6fdf\u91d1\u878d\u6642\u4e8b\uff0c\u591a\u6703\u5f9e\u95b1\u8b80\u5831\u7ae0\u96dc\u8a8c\u8457\u624b\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u6642\u53ef\u898b\u300c\u9bf0\u9b5a\u6548\u61c9\u300d\u3001\u300c\u91d1\u9aee\u5973\u5b69\u7d93\u6fdf\u300d\u3001\u300c\u7f8a\u7fa4\u6548\u61c9\u300d\u7b49\u8a5e\u5f59\uff0c\u770b\u4f3c\u767d\u8a71\uff0c\u8b80\u8d77\u4f86\u537b\u9727\u715e\u715e\uff1b\u592e\u884c\u9664\u4e86\u900f\u904e\u81c9\u66f8\u7c89\u7d72\u5718\u50b3\u9054\u653f\u7b56\u7acb\u5834\uff0c\u4e5f\u6703\u4ee5\u63d2\u5716\u642d\u914d\u6545\u4e8b\u6027\u5730\u63cf\u8ff0\uff0c\u89e3\u6790\u7d93\u6fdf\u9818\u57df\u4e2d\u5e38\u898b\u7684\u6bd4\u55bb\u6216\u5c08\u6709\u540d\u8a5e\uff0c\u8b93\u6c11\u773e\u770b\u81c9\u66f8\u4e5f\u80fd\u9577\u77e5\u8b58\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u89e3\u91cb\u5371\u6a5f\u9810\u5146\u7684\u5c08\u6709\u540d\u8a5e\uff01\u745e\u5178\u592e\u884c\u88ab\u7a31\u300c\u8ca8\u5e63\u7926\u5751\u88e1\u7684\u91d1\u7d72\u96c0\u300d<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"color: #800000;\"><strong>\u592e\u884c\u4eca\u5929\uff0817 \u65e5\uff09\u5728\u81c9\u66f8\u8aaa\u660e\u300c\u7926\u5751\u88e1\u7684\u91d1\u7d72\u96c0\u300d\u4e00\u8a5e\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ea\u96b1\u542b\u9818\u5148\u6307\u6a19\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u65e9\u671f\u9810\u8b66\u7684\u610f\u5473\uff1b\u7531\u65bc\u91d1\u7d72\u96c0\u5c0d\u6709\u6bd2\u6c23\u9ad4\u6975\u70ba\u654f\u611f\uff0c\u7926\u5de5\u6703\u5e36\u91d1\u7d72\u96c0\u81f3\u7926\u5751\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u5075\u6e2c\u5929\u7136\u6c23\u662f\u5426\u5916\u6d29\uff0c\u7576\u91d1\u7d72\u96c0\u51fa\u73fe\u7570\u72c0\u6642\uff0c\u7926\u5de5\u5373\u53ef\u4ee5\u6b64\u5145\u4f5c\u8b66\u8a0a\uff0c\u85c9\u4ee5\u63d0\u65e9\u64a4\u51fa\u7926\u5751\u4ee5\u4fdd\u5168\u6027\u547d\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u592e\u884c\u4e5f\u8aaa\uff0c\u745e\u5178\u592e\u884c\u65bc 2019 \u5e74 12 \u6708 19 \u65e5\u5ba3\u5e03\uff0c\u5c07\u8a72\u884c\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\uff08\u9644\u8cb7\u56de\u5229\u7387\uff0frepo rate\uff09\u5f9e\u8ca0 0.25% \u8abf\u5347\u81f3\u96f6\uff0c\u7d42\u7d50\u5be6\u65bd\u5c07\u8fd1 5 \u5e74\u7684\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\uff08negative interest rate policy\uff09\uff0c\u6210\u70ba\u8fd1\u5e74\u4f86\u5168\u7403\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u7d50\u675f\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/cbc.gov.tw\/photos\/a.1991441454273428\/2683317208419179\/?type=3<\/p>\n<p>\u56de\u9867 2009 \u5e74 7 \u6708\u81f3 2010 \u5e74 9 \u6708\u9019\u6bb5\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u745e\u5178\u592e\u884c\u66fe\u5c07\u8a72\u884c\u7684\u5b58\u6b3e\u5229\u7387\u8abf\u964d\u81f3\u8ca00.25%\uff0c\u6210\u70ba\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u5f8c\u5168\u7403\u7b2c\u4e00\u5bb6\u5411\u5546\u696d\u9280\u884c\u5b58\u6b3e\u6536\u53d6\u5229\u7387\u7684\u592e\u884c\uff1b\u800c 2015 \u5e74 2 \u6708\uff0c\u745e\u5178\u592e\u884c\u5ba3\u5e03\u5c07\u8a72\u884c\u7684\u9644\u8cb7\u56de\u5229\u7387\u7531\u96f6\u964d\u81f3\u8ca0 0.1%\uff0c\u6210\u70ba\u5168\u7403\u9996\u5bb6\u5c07\u9644\u8cb7\u56de\u5229\u7387\u964d\u81f3\u8ca0\u503c\u7684\u592e\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u91d1\u878d\u6642\u5831\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\uff0c\u745e\u5178\u592e\u884c\u513c\u7136\u662f\u300c\u8ca8\u5e63\u7926\u5751\u88e1\u7684\u91d1\u7d72\u96c0\u300d\uff08canary in the monetary coal mine\uff09\uff1b\u745e\u5178\u592e\u884c\u9000\u51fa\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u5176\u5c0d\u8ca0\u5229\u7387\u53ef\u80fd\u7522\u751f\u4e0d\u826f\u526f\u4f5c\u7528\u7684\u7591\u616e\u589e\u52a0\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u9664\u4e86\u91d1\u878d\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u300c\u7926\u5751\u88e1\u7684\u91d1\u7d72\u96c0\u300d\u4e5f\u80fd\u61c9\u7528\u5728\u74b0\u5883\u8b70\u984c<\/h2>\n<p>\u592e\u884c\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u9019\u4e26\u975e\u5916\u754c\u9996\u6b21\u4ee5\u300c\u7926\u5751\u88e1\u7684\u91d1\u7d72\u96c0\u300d\u5f62\u5bb9\u8ca8\u5e63\u91d1\u878d\u6216\u7d93\u6fdf\u60c5\u52e2\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u6e96\u6703\uff08Fed\uff09\u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u6b21\u555f\u52d5\u5347\u606f\u5faa\u74b0\u6642\uff0c\u5438\u5f15\u8cc7\u91d1\u7531\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u6d41\u56de\u7f8e\u570b\uff0c\u9664\u4f7f\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u5f37\uff0c\u4e5f\u4f7f\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u9762\u81e8\u532f\u50f9\u91cd\u8cb6\u53ca\u5916\u50b5\u511f\u50b5\u58d3\u529b\u907d\u589e\u7b49\u554f\u984c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5c0d\u6b64\uff0c\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b78\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6 Kenneth Rogoff \u4fbf\u66fe\u4ee5\u300c\u91d1\u878d\u7926\u5751\u88e1\u7684\u91d1\u7d72\u96c0\u300d\u8cea\u7591\u963f\u6839\u5ef7\u8207\u571f\u8033\u5176\u6240\u9762\u81e8\u7684\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u653f\u7b56\u5229\u7387\u6301\u7e8c\u6b63\u5e38\u5316\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u50b5\u52d9\u5e02\u5834\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u52a0\u5287\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u9810\u8b66\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5df4\u9686\u5468\u520a\u4e9e\u6d32\u7248\uff08Barron&#8217;s Asia\uff09\u5c08\u6b04\u4f5c\u5bb6 William Pesek \u66fe\u4ee5\u300c\u5168\u7403\u8cbf\u6613\u7926\u5751\u7684\u91d1\u7d72\u96c0\u300d\u5f62\u5bb9\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\uff1b\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u958b\u653e\u3001\u6613\u96a8\u570b\u969b\u60c5\u52e2\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u65b0\u52a0\u5761\uff0c\u80fd\u7387\u5148\u55c5\u51fa\u5927\u74b0\u5883\u6240\u5f4c\u6f2b\u7684\u6bd2\u6c23\uff0c\u5176\u4e00\u9023\u4e32\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u53ef\u5145\u7576\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u9818\u5148\u6307\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9644\u5e36\u4e00\u63d0\u7684\u662f\uff0c<span style=\"color: #800000;\"><strong>\u6fb3\u6d32\u5e38\u88ab\u6bd4\u64ec\u70ba\u300c\u4e2d\u570b\u5927\u9678\u7d93\u6fdf\u7926\u5751\u88e1\u7684\u91d1\u7d72\u96c0\u300d\uff0c\u56e0\u6fb3\u6d32\u7684\u7164\u7926\u3001\u9435\u7926\u53ca\u6db2\u5316\u5929\u7136\u6c23\u7684\u51fa\u53e3\uff0c\u6709\u5c07\u8fd1 40% \u51fa\u53e3\u81f3\u4e2d\u570b\u5927\u9678\uff0c\u85c9\u7531\u6fb3\u6d32\u80fd\u6e90\u76f8\u95dc\u7522\u696d\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u4fbf\u53ef\u9810\u77e5\u4e2d\u570b\u5927\u9678\u7d93\u6fdf\u60c5\u52e2\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u592e\u884c\u81c9\u66f8\u4e5f\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u8fd1\u4f86\u6fb3\u6d32\u767c\u751f\u9023\u6708\u7684\u53e2\u6797\u5927\u706b\uff0c\u5df2\u71d2\u6389\u903e 1 \u500b\u5357\u97d3\u7684\u9762\u7a4d\uff0c\u9019\u6216\u8a31\u662f\u300c\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u7926\u5751\u88e1\u7684\u91d1\u7d72\u96c0\u300d\uff0c\u63d0\u9192\u4e16\u4eba\u61c9\u7a4d\u6975\u56e0\u61c9\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u300aBO\u300b\u7de8\u6309\uff1a\u53f0\u4e2d 2019 \u5e74\u6771\u4e9e\u9752\u5e74\u904b\u52d5\u6703\u4e3b\u8fa6\u6b0a\u906d\u6771\u4e9e\u5967\u6703\u53d6\u6d88\u5f8c\uff0c\u7e3d\u7d71\u8521\u82f1\u6587\u4e5f\u5728\u63a8\u7279\u767c\u6587\u63d0\u53ca\u300c\u7926\u5751\u88e1\u7684\u91d1\u7d72\u96c0\u300d\u4e00\u8a5e\u3002\u9019\u5247\u63a8\u6587\u4e2d<a href=\"https:\/\/tw.news.yahoo.com\/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9C%8B%E6%89%93%E5%A3%93-%E8%94%A1-%E5%8F%B0%E5%B0%B1%E5%83%8F%E7%A4%A6%E5%9D%91%E8%A3%A1%E7%9A%84%E9%87%91%E7%B5%B2%E9%9B%80-030010124.html\">\u63d0\u5230<\/a>\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u4eba\u7121\u6cd5\u63a5\u53d7\u4e2d\u570b\u4ee5\u610f\u5fd7\u5f37\u884c\u4e3b\u5c0e\u53d6\u6d88\u6771\u4e9e\u9752\u904b\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u5979\u4e5f\u6703\u300c\u5168\u529b\u652f\u6301\u53f0\u4e2d\u5e02\u653f\u5e9c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u83ef\u5967\u6703\u63a1\u53d6\u4efb\u4f55\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u3001\u4ee5\u529b\u722d\u6211\u5011\u61c9\u5f97\u7684\u6b63\u7fa9\u3002\u6b64\u6642\uff0c<span style=\"color: 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href=\"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/2019\/04\/09\/japan-virginity-crisis\/\">\u3010\u7814\u7a76\uff1a\u6536\u5165\u8d8a\u4f4e\uff0c\u8655\u7537\u8d8a\u591a\u3011\u300aCNN\u300b\u4ee5\u793e\u6703\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u89e3\u6790\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u300c\u6027\u7d93\u9a57\u5371\u6a5f\u300d<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/2019\/01\/25\/venezuela-is-teaching-tw-a-lesson\/\">\u3010\u898b\u8b49\u4e2d\u5171\u91d1\u878d\u6ce1\u6cab\u8d77\u9ede\u3011\u4e2d\u570b\u5982\u4f55\u4ee5\u4e00\u5e36\u4e00\u8def\u4f38\u9032\u59d4\u5167\u745e\u62c9\uff0c\u4e26\u4e00\u624b\u652a\u4e82\u59d4\u570b\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\uff1f<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u672c\u6587\u7d93\u5408\u4f5c\u5925\u4f34 \u4e2d\u592e\u793e \u6388\u6b0a\u8f49\u8f09\uff0c\u4e26\u540c\u610f BuzzOrange \u7de8\u5beb\u5c0e\u8b80\u8207\u4fee\u8a02\u6a19\u984c\uff0c\u539f\u6587\u6a19\u984c\u70ba\u3008<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cna.com.tw\/news\/afe\/202001170158.aspx\">\u7926\u5751\u88e1\u7684\u91d1\u7d72\u96c0 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