{"id":3286,"date":"2020-02-04T12:15:37","date_gmt":"2020-02-04T04:15:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/2020\/02\/04\/when-will-wuhan-virus-end\/"},"modified":"2021-09-01T21:45:18","modified_gmt":"2021-09-01T13:45:18","slug":"when-will-wuhan-virus-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/2020\/02\/04\/when-will-wuhan-virus-end\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u7528\u300c\u5316\u5b78\u53cd\u61c9\u901f\u7387\u300d\u5f97\u77e5\u6b66\u6f22\u80ba\u708e\u7d50\u675f\u6642\u9593\u3011\u53f0\u5927\u6559\u6388\u7528\u300c\u4e00\u5f35\u5716\u300d\u7cbe\u7b97\u75ab\u60c5\u7d50\u675f\u65e5\uff0c\u7db2\u53cb\u8b9a\uff1a\u8dea\u8457\u770b\u5b8c\u9019\u7bc7"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u3010\u6211\u5011\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u8981\u6311\u9078\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u3011<\/p>\n

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\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u6709\u65b9\u6cd5\u80fd\u9810\u4f30\u6b66\u6f22\u80ba\u708e\u4f55\u6642\u6703\u7d50\u675f\u3001\u6700\u7d42\u7684\u78ba\u8a3a\u4eba\u6578\u55ce\uff1f\u53f0\u5927\u5316\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u7528\u300c\u52d5\u529b\u5b78\u6a21\u578b\u300d\u4e26\u7528\u5148\u524d\u767c\u751f\u7684SARS\u3001\u767b\u9769\u71b1\u6848\u4f8b\u9a57\u8b49\uff0c\u89e3\u91cb\u6b66\u6f22\u80ba\u708e\u75ab\u60c5\u53ef\u80fd\u5c07\u5728\u4f55\u6642\u7d50\u675f\uff0c\u800c\u53f0\u5927\u6559\u6388\u7684\u79d1\u5b78\u63a8\u4f30\uff0c\u4e5f\u8b93\u7db2\u53cb\u8b9a\uff1a\u300c\u5606\u70ba\u89c0\u6b62\u300d\u3001\u300c\u771f\u7684\u662f\u8dea\u8457\u770b\u5b8c\u9019\u7bc7\u300d<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9644\u8a3b\uff1a\u672c\u7bc7\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u4f5c\u70ba\u6559\u80b2\u7528\u9014\uff0c\u5617\u8a66\u4ee5\u7406\u79d1\u6559\u79d1\u66f8\u4e2d\u6559\u904e\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u4f86\u5e6b\u52a9\u5927\u5bb6\u7406\u89e3\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u9032\u5c55\u3002\uff08\u8cac\u4efb\u7de8\u8f2f\uff1a\u8b1d\u4f69\u5982\uff09<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"\"

\u5716\u7247\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b<\/p><\/div>\n

\u6587\uff0f\u5f90\u4e1e\u5fd7<\/a>\uff08\u53f0\u5927\u5316\u5b78\u7cfb\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388\uff09<\/p>\n

\u300c\u8001\u5e2b\uff0c\u8acb\u554f\u6b66\u6f22\u80ba\u708e\u75ab\u60c5\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6642\u5019\u624d\u6703\u7d50\u675f\uff1f\u300d<\/p>\n

\u9019\u662f\u6628\u5929\u6211\u5b78\u751f\u554f\u6211\u7684\u4e00\u53e5\u8a71\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u7576\u4e0b\u56de\u61c9\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u4e0d\u662f\u516c\u885b\u548c\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b78\u5c08\u696d\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u7121\u6cd5\u56de\u7b54\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u5b78\u751f\u554f\u7684\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u5f9e\u5316\u5b78\u8ab2\u672c\u4e2d\u6559\u904e\u7684\u77e5\u8b58\uff0c\u6216\u8a31\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5617\u8a66\u4f86\u56de\u7b54\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6642\u9593\u5148\u62c9\u56de\u5230\u5c0f\u5e74\u591c\u6b66\u6f22\u5c01\u57ce\u90a3\u5929\uff0c\u7576\u5929\u5b98\u65b9\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u6b66\u6f22\u80ba\u708e (2019-nCoV) \u55ae\u65e5\u78ba\u8a3a\u4eba\u6578\u9084\u53ea\u6709\u5169\u767e\u591a\u4eba\uff08\u5305\u62ec\u4e2d\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u5065\u5eb7\u885b\u751f\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u548c WHO \u7684\u5831\u544a\uff09\uff0c\u8f49\u773c\u5230\u521d\u4e09\u5728\u4e00\u5929\u5167\u7684\u55ae\u65e5\u78ba\u8a3a\u6578\u5df2\u7d93\u9054\u5230\u4e00\u5343\u4e03\u767e\u591a\u4eba\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u4e2d\u570b\u5883\u5167\u7684\u7e3d\u78ba\u8a3a\u75c5\u4f8b\u4e5f\u5728\u524d\u5929 (1\/28) \u7a81\u7834 2003 \u5e74 SARS \u7684\u6578\u5b57\uff08\u8a3b\u4e00\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56e0\u70ba\u78ba\u8a3a\u6578\u5b57\u8df3\u52d5\u975e\u5e38\u5feb\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u4e0d\u65b7\u5275\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u90fd\u60f3\u77e5\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u300c\u5230\u5e95\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u4eba\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u75ab\u60c5\u4f55\u6642\u6703\u7d50\u675f\uff1f\u300d<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

\u5716\u7247\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u3002<\/p><\/div>\n

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\u525b\u597d\u6211\u5b78\u751f\u4e5f\u96a8\u53e3\u554f\u4e86\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5728\u9019\u908a\uff0c\u6211\u5f9e\u5316\u5b78\u53cd\u61c9\u7684\u78b0\u649e\u7406\u8ad6\u4f5c\u70ba\u8d77\u9ede\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u500b\u6709\u9ad8\u4e2d\u5316\u5b78\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5c31\u80fd\u5927\u81f4\u7406\u89e3\u7684\u52d5\u529b\u5b78\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ee5\u8f03\u76f4\u89c0\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u4f86\u53bb\u63cf\u8ff0\u50b3\u67d3\u75c5\u7684\u50b3\u64ad\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u6578\u96a8\u6642\u9593\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\u3002\u63a5\u8457\u518d\u5617\u8a66\u900f\u904e\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u7d93\u9a57\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u5c08\u5bb6\u7684\u610f\u898b\uff0c\u4f86\u53bb\u9810\u6e2c\u9019\u6b21\u6b66\u6f22\u80ba\u708e\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u8d70\u5411\uff08\u70ba\u4e86\u907f\u514d\u6211\u88ab\u75be\u7ba1\u5c40\u627e\u53bb\u559d\u5496\u5561\uff0c\u8acb\u5148\u8a73\u95b1\u6587\u7ae0\u7d50\u5c3e\u7684\u8072\u660e\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\uff0a\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5bb9\u6211\u5148\u4e0a\u4e00\u9ede\u53cd\u61c9\u52d5\u529b\u5b78\u7684\u8ab2\uff0c\u6c92\u8208\u8da3\u7684\u4eba\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f4\u63a5\u8df3\u5230\u5f8c\u9762\u75ab\u60c5\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7528\u300c\u52d5\u529b\u5b78\u6a21\u578b\u300d\u63a8\u4f30\u6bcf\u65e5\u65b0\u589e\u6b66\u6f22\u80ba\u708e\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u6578<\/h2>\n

\u3010\u52d5\u529b\u5b78\u6a21\u578b\u3011<\/p>\n

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\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u628a\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u7528\u4e00\u689d\u5316\u5b78\u53cd\u61c9\u5f0f\u4f86\u4ee3\u8868\uff08\u53cd\u61c9\u4e0d\u53ef\u9006\uff09\uff1a<\/p>\n

\uff21\uff08\u4e00\u4f4d\u5065\u5eb7\u8005\uff09\uff0b\uff22\uff08\u4e00\u4f4d\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u8005\uff09\u2192 2 \uff22\uff08\u5169\u4f4d\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u8005\uff09<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u7406\u8ad6\u4e0a\uff0c\u5728\u4e0d\u8003\u616e\u5065\u5eb7\u8005\uff21\u81ea\u7136\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\uff21\uff0b\uff22\u7684\u6578\u91cf\u6703\u7b49\u65bc\u5340\u57df\u5167\u7684\u7e3d\u4eba\u53e3\u6578\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u82e5\u5728\u75ab\u60c5\u525b\u958b\u59cb\u7684\u6642\u5019\u9032\u884c\u9694\u96e2\u9632\u75ab\uff0c\u76f8\u7576\u65bc\u9650\u5236\uff22\u53ef\u4ee5\u89f8\u53ca\uff21\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u548c\u7bc4\u570d\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff21\uff0b\uff22\u7684\u7e3d\u6578\u91cf\u6703\u96a8\u8457\u9632\u75ab\u7684\u843d\u5be6\u800c\u5927\u5e45\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u4e00\u500b\u521d\u59cb\u7684\u908a\u754c\u689d\u4ef6\uff0c\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4e86\u6700\u5f8c\u7684\u7e3d\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u6578\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u6975\u70ba\u7c21\u5316\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5b83\u7684\u6bcf\u65e5\u300c\u65b0\u589e\u300d\u7684\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u8005\uff08delta [B]\uff09\u5c31\u662f\u5316\u5b78\u4e0a\u7684\u4e8c\u7d1a\u53cd\u61c9\u5f0f\uff0c\u5beb\u6210\u6578\u5b78\u5f0f\u5b50\u5c31\u662f\uff1a<\/p>\n

delta [B] = \u300c\u7576\u65e5\u60a3\u8005\u6578\u300d x \u300c\u7576\u65e5\u5065\u5eb7\u8005\u6578\u300d x \u5e38\u6578 ([A]*[B]* Const)<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u7528\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u5f0f\u5b50\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u53bb\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u75ab\u60c5\u6f14\u9032\uff0c\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u6642\u9593\u9ede\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u7684\u589e\u52a0\u901f\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u662f\u6709\u5e7e\u9ede\u9700\u8981\u7279\u5225\u6ce8\u610f\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u662f\u9019\u500b\u6a21\u578b\u5047\u8a2d\u4e00\u65e6\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u5c31\u5177\u6709\u50b3\u67d3\u529b\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u5728\u6f5b\u4f0f\u671f\u4e5f\u662f\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5247\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u5f9e\u611f\u67d3\u5f8c\u9032\u5165\u6f5b\u4f0f\u671f\u5230\u51fa\u75c7\u72c0\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6aa2\u9ad4\u9001\u6a23\u5f8c\u5230\u78ba\u8a3a\uff0c\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u4e00\u9ede\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u78ba\u8a3a\u65e5\u671f\u8207\u5be6\u969b\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u65e5\u4e2d\u9593\u6703\u6709\u8aa4\u5dee\uff0c\u4ee5\u9019\u6b21 2019-nCov \u6b66\u6f22\u80ba\u708e\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u6293\u500b 10-15 \u5929\u7684\u5ef6\u9072\u3002\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u70ba\u4e86\u65b9\u4fbf\u8d77\u898b\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5047\u5b9a\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u5ef6\u9072\u6642\u9593\u76f8\u540c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u76f4\u63a5\u4ee5\u5b98\u65b9\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u300c\u78ba\u8a3a\u65e5\u671f\u300d\u4f86\u5957\u7528\u5230\u6a21\u578b\u4e0a\u9762\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u4f30\u7b97\u6bcf\u65e5\u65b0\u589e\u300c\u78ba\u8a3a\u6578\u300d\u3002\u7b2c\u56db\uff0c\u5148\u524d\u7684 SARS \u6216 MERS \u90fd\u8b49\u5be6\u5b58\u5728\u6709\u5c11\u6578\u7684\u8d85\u7d1a\u50b3\u67d3\u8005\uff0c\u5c0d\u75ab\u60c5\u50b3\u64ad\u6709\u95dc\u9375\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5728\u9019\u500b\u7c21\u6613\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u6211\u5011\u5047\u8a2d\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u50b3\u64ad\u80fd\u529b\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7406\u8ad6\u5efa\u7acb\u597d\u4e86\uff0c\u518d\u4f86\u5c31\u662f\u8981\u53bb\u9a57\u8b49\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f9eSARS\u3001\u767b\u9769\u71b1\u6848\u4f8b\u9a57\u8b49<\/h2>\n

\u3010\u904e\u53bb\u6848\u4f8b\u63a2\u8a0e\u3011<\/p>\n

\u672c\u4f86\u9019\u500b\u5047\u671f\u7d66\u81ea\u5df1\u8a02\u4e0b\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u662f\u8981\u8d81\u8457\u96e3\u5f97\u7684\u9577\u5047\uff0c\u628a\u624b\u908a\u5e7e\u7bc7\u5b78\u751f\u5df2\u7d93\u5beb\u597d\u7684\u521d\u7a3f\u6539\u4e00\u6539\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5f9e\u5c0f\u5e74\u591c\u6b66\u6f22\u5c01\u57ce\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u601d\u7dd2\u5c31\u88ab\u75ab\u60c5\u727d\u52d5\uff0c\u7d22\u6027\u56de\u53bb\u628a\u81ea\u5df1\u4ee5\u524d\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u624b\u7a3f\u548c\u5b98\u65b9\u516c\u5e03\u8cc7\u6599\u8abf\u51fa\u4f86\u8b80\u3002\u627e\u4e86\u5e7e\u500b\u5927\u5bb6\u6bd4\u8f03\u77e5\u9053\u7684\uff0c\u50cf\u662f 2003 \u5e74\u7684 SARS\u30012014-2016 \u7684\u53f0\u7063\u767b\u9769\u71b1\u75ab\u60c5\u3001\u524d\u5e7e\u5e74\u7684\u4f0a\u6ce2\u62c9\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u53f0\u7063\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u5e7e\u6b21\u6d41\u611f\u5927\u7206\u767c\uff0c\u5927\u81f4\u4e0a\u90fd\u80fd fit \u9032\u53bb\u7d71\u8a08\u6578\u5b57\u4e2d\uff08\u5de6\u5716\u7d05\u8272\u7684\u6821\u6b63\u66f2\u7dda\u5c31\u662f\u7528\u6a21\u578b\u9810\u4f30\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u503c\uff0c\u85cd\u8272\u9ede\u70ba\u5be6\u969b\u503c\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5de6\u5716\u9078\u4e86\u5e7e\u500b\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u7684\u75ab\u60c5\u8cbc\u7d66\u5927\u5bb6\u770b\u3002\u6578\u64da\u4f86\u6e90\u5305\u62ec WHO \u7db2\u7ad9\u548c\u53f0\u7063\u50b3\u67d3\u75c5\u7d71\u8a08\u8cc7\u6599\u67e5\u8a62\u7cfb\u7d71\uff08\u8a3b\u4e09\uff09\uff1b\u9019\u908a\u8981\u7279\u5225\u7a31\u8b9a\u53f0\u7063\u50b3\u67d3\u75c5\u7d71\u8a08\u8cc7\u6599\u67e5\u8a62\u7cfb\u7d71\uff0c\u6578\u64da\u975e\u5e38\u8a73\u76e1\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u8cc7\u6599\u4e00\u6293\u5c31\u6709\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f03\u53ef\u60dc\u7684\u662f\u5b83\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u591a\u662f\u4ee5\u5468\u4f5c\u7d71\u8a08\uff0c\u4e0d\u50cf WHO \u5f88\u591a\u75ab\u60c5\u53ef\u4ee5\u505a\u5230\u9010\u65e5\u66f4\u65b0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5f9e\u5716\u4e0a\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u767b\u9769\u71b1\u6216\u662f SARS\uff0c\u6bcf\u5468\/\u6bcf\u65e5\u7684\u65b0\u589e\u4eba\u6578\u90fd\u662f\u5169\u5074\u4f4e\uff0c\u4e2d\u9593\u9ad8\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u53f3\u7ffc\uff08\u75ab\u60c5\u6e1b\u7de9\u6642\uff09\u6578\u5b57\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u6703\u6bd4\u8f03\u9661\u5ced\u3002SARS \u75ab\u60c5\u56e0\u70ba\u662f\u9010\u65e5\u767b\u8f09\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4e0b\u8df3\u52d5\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\u6bd4\u8f03\u5927\uff1b\u800c\u767b\u9769\u71b1\u7684\u6578\u64da\u56e0\u70ba\u662f\u6bcf\u5468\u7d00\u9304\uff0c\u76f8\u7576\u65bc\u505a\u4e86\u4e03\u9ede\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5e73\u6ed1\u8a31\u591a\u3002\u5728\u767b\u9769\u71b1\u7684\u6578\u64da R^2 \u503c\u751a\u81f3\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u8d85\u904e 0.95\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u89e3\u91cb\u50b3\u64ad\u6a5f\u5236\uff08\u95dc\u65bc\u767b\u9769\u71b1\u75ab\u60c5\u6211\u5728 2015 \u5e74\u5c31\u66fe\u8a0e\u8ad6\u904e\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u4f30\u7b97\u6642\u6c92\u8003\u616e\u4e0d\u540c\u5340\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u9577\u77ed\u4ee5\u53ca\u9632\u75ab\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u90a3\u6b21\u4f30\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u8207\u5be6\u969b\u7684\u6578\u503c\u5dee\u4e86\u597d\u5e7e\u500d\uff0c\u9019\u6b21\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u6703\u4e00\u4f75\u8003\u616e\u6b64\u6548\u61c9\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u70ba\u4e86\u65b9\u4fbf\u5927\u5bb6\u7406\u89e3\u548c\u6bd4\u8f03\u4e0d\u540c\u50b3\u67d3\u75c5\u9593\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u5dee\u5225\uff0c\u6211\u5b9a\u7fa9\u6821\u6b63\u66f2\u7dda\u4e0a\u534a\u9ad8\u5bec\u6240\u6a6b\u8de8\u7684\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u70ba\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u300c\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\u300d\u3002\u5728\u6578\u64da\u9ede\u534a\u9ad8\u5bec\u78b0\u89f8\u7684\u5169\u908a\uff0c\u6070\u597d\u662f\u78ba\u8a3a\u6578\u589e\u52a0\u901f\u7387\u70ba\u5feb\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff08\u5207\u7dda\u659c\u7387\u6700\u5927\uff09\uff0c\u800c\u540c\u6642\u4e5f\u53ef\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u6bd4\u8f03\u75ab\u671f\u9577\u77ed\u7684\u57fa\u6e96\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8b6c\u5982 2015 \u5e74\u53f0\u5357\u767b\u9769\u71b1\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\uff08\u7d04\u516d\u5468\uff09\u5c31\u9060\u6bd4 2014 \u5e74\u7684\u9ad8\u5c4f\u5340\u767b\u9769\u71b1\u75ab\u60c5\uff08\u7d04\u5341\u4e00\u5468\uff09\u8981\u77ed\uff1b\u800c\u540c\u6a23\u662f SARS\uff0c\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u75ab\u60c5\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\u7d04 40\u5929\uff083\/18~4\/27\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u53f0\u7063\u5c31\u5927\u6982\u53ea\u6709 18 \u5929\uff08\u5f9e\u5716\u4e0a\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u6e05\u695a\u770b\u51fa\u4f86\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u7576\u5e74 4\/24 \u548c\u5e73\u91ab\u9662\u5c31\u5c01\u9662\u4e86\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5f9e\u4e8b\u5f8c\u6578\u64da\u770b\u4f86\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u9ad8\u5cf0\u8981\u5230 5\/10 \u624d\u4f86\uff0c\u800c\u6b64\u6642\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u75ab\u60c5\u5df2\u7d93\u7d50\u675f\u7684\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u4e86\uff09\u3002\u9019\u500b\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\u6211\u5011\u5728\u5f8c\u9762\u9810\u6e2c\u672c\u6b21\u6b66\u6f22\u80ba\u708e\u672a\u4f86\u8d70\u52e2\u6642\u4e5f\u76f8\u7576\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u8acb\u5927\u5bb6\u5148\u7262\u8a18\u3002<\/p>\n

\u81f3\u65bc\u7e3d\u78ba\u8a3a\u6578\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6574\u500b\u5340\u7dda\u5e95\u4e0b\u7684\u7dda\u4e0b\u9762\u7a4d\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u66f2\u7dda\u6db5\u84cb\u7684\u7bc4\u570d\u6108\u5927\uff0c\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u6578\u6108\u591a\u3002\u7279\u5225\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5716\u4e0a\u7684\u7e31\u8ef8\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u662f\u55ae\u4f4d\u6642\u9593\uff08\u5929\uff0f\u5468\uff09\u5167\u300c\u65b0\u589e\u300d\u7684\u500b\u6848\u6578\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u9019\u88e1\u8aaa\u7684\u75ab\u60c5\u7d50\u675f\u662f\u6307\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u6578\u4e0d\u518d\u65b0\u589e\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u6578\u6b78\u96f6\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u6578\u4e0d\u518d\u65b0\u589e\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u9084\u662f\u5b58\u5728\u5927\u91cf\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u6578\uff0c\u548c\u65b0\u589e\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6578\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6b66\u6f22\u80ba\u708e\u75ab\u60c5\u8d70\u52e2\u9810\u5224\uff1a\u76ee\u524d\u67092\u7a2e\u8d70\u52e2<\/h2>\n

\u56de\u982d\u518d\u4f86\u770b\u770b\u6b64\u6b21\u7684 2019-nCoV \u6b66\u6f22\u80ba\u708e\u3002\u5728\u7528\u9019\u500b\u6a21\u578b\u4f5c\u6578\u64da\u63a8\u4f30\u524d\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5148\u770b\u4e00\u4e0b\u5176\u4ed6\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b78\u5c08\u5bb6\u600e\u9ebc\u8aaa\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5404\u5bb6\u7d71\u8a08\u7684 2019-nCoV \u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u6578\uff0c\u5f9e\u5e7e\u842c\u4eba\u5230\u4e0a\u5104\u90fd\u6709\u4eba\u4f30\u8a08\uff0c\u4f30\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u662f Eric Toner \u5728\u53bb\u5e74\u5341\u6708\u5c31\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u65b0\u578b\u51a0\u72c0\u75c5\u6bd2\u6703\u5927\u6d41\u884c\u4e26\u4e14\u6bba\u6b7b\u516d\u5343\u4e94\u767e\u842c\u4eba\uff08\u8a3b\u56db\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u9019\u500b\u6578\u64da\u6211\u4e00\u76f4\u627e\u4e0d\u5230\u539f\u59cb\u8ad6\u6587\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u9019\u500b\u6578\u5b57\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u662f\u5728\u6beb\u7121\u9632\u75ab\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u524d\u984c\u4e0b\u63a8\u4f30\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5148\u66ab\u4e14\u64f1\u4e00\u908a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u6bd4\u8f03\u53ef\u4fe1\u7684\uff0c\u662f Lancaster \u5927\u5b78\u7684 Jonathan Read \u7b49\u4eba\u5728 1\/24 \u653e\u4e0amedRxiv \u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u8ad6\u6587\uff0c\u5728\u5b83\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u7248\uff08\u8a3b\u4e94\uff09\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u5728\u6c92\u6709\u6709\u6548\u7684\u9632\u75ab\u63aa\u65bd\u4e0b\uff0c\u5230 2\/04 \u90a3\u5929\u4e4b\u524d\u5149\u662f\u6b66\u6f22\u5730\u5340\u5c31\u6703\u6709\u7d04 20 \u842c\u4eba\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u96a8\u8457\u6625\u904b\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u6703\u5728\u4e2d\u570b\u5404\u5927\u57ce\u5e02\u904d\u5730\u958b\u82b1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u904e\u5728\u4ed6\u5011 1\/27 \u4e0a\u50b3\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7248\u8ad6\u6587\u4e2d\uff08\u8a3b\u516d\uff09\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u522a\u53bb\u4e86\u8a72\u6bb5 20 \u842c\u4eba\u67d3\u75c5\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u4e26\u5728\u4fee\u6b63\u4e86\u53c3\u6578\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u66f4\u65b0\u4e86\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u9805\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u63a8\u4f30 1\/22 \u4e4b\u524d\u5728\u6b66\u6f22\u7684\u7e3d\u611f\u67d3\u7d04\u662f\u5169\u842c\u4eba\u3002\u9019\u7bc7\u56e0\u70ba\u662f\u6975\u5c11\u6578\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u4e2d\u6709\u516c\u958b\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u539f\u59cb\u8ad6\u6587\u5167\u5bb9\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5f8c\u9762\u7684\u4f30\u8a08\u6703\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u6bd4\u91cd\u662f\u53c3\u8003\u9019\u7bc7\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u9808\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\u9019\u7bc7\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u8a0e\u8ad6\u4f55\u6642\u6703\u662f\u75ab\u60c5\u9ad8\u5cf0\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6240\u6709\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u6a21\u578b\u90fd\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6578\u64da\u9ede\u6108\u591a\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u529b\u6703\u6108\u5f37\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6108\u662f\u5f8c\u671f\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u6578\u5b78\u5de5\u5177\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u6703\u6108\u63a5\u8fd1\u771f\u5be6\u72c0\u6cc1\u3002\u9019\u5169\u5929\u6709\u5169\u4f4d\u91ab\u754c\u5c08\u5bb6\u4e0d\u7d04\u800c\u540c\u5206\u5225\u4f5c\u51fa\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u7b2c\u4e00\u4f4d\u662f\u7576\u5e74\u7684\u6297 SARS \u5927\u5c07\u937e\u5357\u5c71\uff0c\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\u75ab\u60c5\u5927\u6982\u5728 2\/09 \u9054\u9802\u5cf0\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6c92\u6709\u9810\u4f30\u6700\u7d42\u7684\u78ba\u8a3a\u4eba\u6578\uff08\u8a3b\u4e03\uff09\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4f4d\u662f\u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b78\u91ab\u5b78\u9662\u9662\u9577\u6881\u5353\u5049\uff0c\u4ed6\u63a8\u4f30\u5728 1\/27 \u65e5\u6b66\u6f22\u5df2\u7d93\u6709\u56db\u842c\u591a\u4eba\u611f\u67d3\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u56e0\u70ba\u4e2d\u570b\u5176\u4ed6\u5927\u57ce\u5e02\u4e5f\u6703\u51fa\u73fe\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u50b3\u67d3\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6574\u9ad4\u75ab\u60c5\u8981\u5230\u56db\u6708\u5e95\u624d\u5c01\u9802\uff08\u8a3b\u516b\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7d9c\u5408\u4e0a\u8ff0\u9810\u6e2c\u5167\u5bb9\uff0c\u642d\u914d\u624b\u908a\u73fe\u6709\u7684\u78ba\u8a3a\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u6211\u5617\u8a66\u4ee5\u9019\u500b\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u52d5\u529b\u5b78\u6a21\u578b\u4f86\u63a8\u4f30\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u78ba\u8a3a\u6578\u3002\u6211\u9019\u908a\u7d66\u4e86\u4e09\u500b\u5287\u672c\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u4ee5\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u6578\u5f9e\u591a\u5230\u5c11\u3001\u6bcf\u65e5\u78ba\u8a3a\u4eba\u6578\u9ad8\u5cf0\u5f9e\u9060\u5230\u8fd1\u4f86\u6392\u5e8f\u3002\uff08\u56e0\u70ba\u7bc7\u5e45\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u53c3\u6578\u7684\u8a2d\u5b9a\u3001\u512a\u5316\u7b49\u7d30\u7bc0\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u5728\u6b64\u8d05\u8ff0\uff09<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u72c0\u6cc1\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f03\u63a5\u8fd1 J. Read \u5728\u7b2c\u4e00\u7248\u7684\u8ad6\u6587\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\u7684\uff0c\u9632\u75ab\u6548\u679c\u4f4e\uff0c\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u6578\u5728 2\/04 \u7834 20 \u842c\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff08\u6ce8\u610f\u53ef\u88ab\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u78ba\u8a3a\u6578\u8981\u63a8\u9072\u5230 2\/18 \u4ee5\u5f8c\uff09\uff0c\u53e6\u5916\u53c3\u8003\u7576\u5e74 SARS \u5728\u53f0\u7063\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\u5927\u7d04 18 \u5929\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u53f3\u5716\u7684\u6a58\u8272\u7dda\u3002\u5728\u9019\u500b\u5287\u672c\u4e2d\uff0c\u78ba\u8a3a\u6578\u9ad8\u5cf0\u8981\u5230 2\/09 \u5de6\u53f3\u4e4b\u5f8c\u624d\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u6301\u7e8c\u7d04\u4e09\u5468\uff0c\u6700\u9ad8\u5cf0\u6642\u6bcf\u5929\u65b0\u589e\u7684\u78ba\u8a3a\u75c5\u4f8b\u6703\u9054\u5230\u4e00\u842c\u4eba\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u7e3d\u4eba\u6578\u7d04 24 \u842c\u4e0a\u4e0b\uff08\u8acb\u81ea\u884c\u6293\u6b63\u8ca0 50%\uff09\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u800c\u9019\u500b\u5287\u672c\u4e5f\u6703\u5f88\u985e\u4f3c 2003 \u5e74\u53f0\u7063\u7684 SARS\uff0c\u7576\u5e74\u548c\u5e73\u91ab\u9662\u5c01\u9662\uff0c\u8ddd\u96e2\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\u9084\u6709\u5169\u500b\u79ae\u62dc\uff1b\u800c\u9019\u6b21\u6b66\u6f22\u5c01\u57ce (1\/23) \u8ddd\u96e2 2\/09 \u4e5f\u5927\u7d04\u662f\u5169\u5468\u591a\u4e00\u9ede\u7684\u6642\u9593\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u9019\u500b\u72c0\u6cc1\u7684\u524d\u984c\u662f\u524d\u9762\u5c01\u57ce\u7684\u9632\u75ab\u6548\u679c\u4e0d\u4f73\uff0c\u5230\u4e8c\u6708\u521d\u624d\u505c\u6b62\u4eba\u50b3\u4eba\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u800c J. Read \u90a3\u7bc7\u7b2c\u4e8c\u7248\u81ea\u5df1\u4e5f\u62ff\u6389\u4e86\u9019\u500b\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u662f\u5426\u8d70\u9019\u500b\u5287\u672c\uff0c\u6211\u500b\u4eba\u6bd4\u8f03\u62b1\u6301\u61f7\u7591\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n

\u72c0\u6cc1\u4e8c\uff08\u7da0\u7dda\uff09\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6b66\u6f22\u7b49\u57ce\u5e02\u5c01\u57ce\u9694\u96e2\u5f8c\u6536\u5230\u4e0d\u932f\u7684\u9632\u75ab\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5728 1\/23 \u4e4b\u5f8c\u4eba\u50b3\u4eba\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u5927\u5e45\u6536\u6582\uff0c\u5f80\u5f8c\u63a8\u9072\u5169\u5468\u88ab\u78ba\u8a3a\uff0c\u9ad8\u5cf0\u6703\u843d\u5728\u4e8c\u6708\u4e0a\u65ec\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\u7e2e\u77ed\u70ba\u5169\u9031\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u5f9e 1\/31\uff08\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u660e\u5929\uff09\u958b\u59cb\u9032\u5165\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\u3002\u5728\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\u6bcf\u5929\u6703\u6709 2000 ~ 4000 \u500b\u65b0\u589e\u78ba\u8a3a\u75c5\u4f8b\uff0c\u4e26\u6301\u7e8c\u5230 2\/13\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u9019\u500b\u5287\u672c\u5f88\u63a5\u8fd1\u937e\u5357\u5c71\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5957\u7528\u6a21\u578b\u5f8c\u5247\u591a\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u78ba\u8a3a\u4eba\u6578\u7e3d\u6578\uff0c\u9019\u908a\u63a8\u4f30\u7d04\u516d\u842c\u4eba\u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u72c0\u6cc1\u4e00\u8207\u72c0\u6cc1\u4e8c\u8981\u5340\u5206\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u89c0\u5bdf\u5f9e\u6700\u9ad8\u5cf0\u7684 2\/09 \u4e4b\u5f8c\u662f\u5426\u65b0\u589e\u6578\u6709\u4e0b\u964d\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4e0b\u964d\u5e45\u5ea6\u660e\u986f\uff0c\u5230\u4e86 2\/13 \u4ee5\u5f8c\u4f4e\u65bc\u6bcf\u65e5\u5169\u5343\u4eba\uff0c\u90a3\u53ef\u80fd\u5c31\u4ee3\u8868\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\u5df2\u7d93\u7d50\u675f\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u53ef\u4ee5\u5224\u65b7\u9019\u6ce2\u75ab\u60c5\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u5728\u4e8c\u6708\u4e0b\u65ec\u8d70\u5b8c\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u55ae\u5f9e\u4eba\u6578\u8981\u5224\u65b7\u662f\u72c0\u6cc1\u4e00\u9084\u4e8c\uff0c\u5c1a\u8a00\u4e4b\u904e\u65e9\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4ee5\u9019\u6b21\u6b66\u6f22\u5c01\u5230\u8857\u4e0a\u8ddf\u300a\u6211\u662f\u50b3\u5947\u300b\u96fb\u5f71\u5834\u666f\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u6211\u6bd4\u8f03\u50be\u5411\u662f\u672a\u4f86\u6703\u8d70\u9019\u500b\u5287\u672c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u72c0\u6cc1\u4e09\uff08\u7d05\u7dda\uff09\uff0c\u6700\u4f73\u5287\u672c\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u5c31\u662f\u9ad8\u9ede\uff01\u4f46\u9019\u500b\u5287\u672c\u9023\u4e2d\u570b\u5b98\u65b9\u90fd\u6c92\u4eba\u9019\u6a23\u6a02\u89c0\uff0c\u7d55\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u5b98\u54e1\u90fd\u662f\u8aaa\u9632\u75ab\u63aa\u65bd\u5728\u5143\u5bb5\u7bc0 (2\/08) \u5f8c\u898b\u6548\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6a5f\u6703\u61c9\u8a72\u4e0d\u9ad8\u3002\u4f46\u4e0d\u6392\u9664\u4e00\u500b\u7279\u6b8a\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u82e5\u9019\u6b21 2019-nCoV \u662f\u4ee5\u8f15\u75c7\u751a\u81f3\u7121\u75c7\u70ba\u4e3b\uff0c\u800c\u5927\u5bb6\u57fa\u65bc\u300c\u4e0d\u60f3\u53bb\u91ab\u9662\u4f5c\u6aa2\u6e2c\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u611f\u67d3\u98a8\u96aa\u300d\u7684\u5fc3\u614b\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u9020\u6210\u5f88\u591a\u75c5\u4f8b\u7121\u6cd5\u88ab\u5b98\u65b9\u78ba\u8a8d\u3002\u82e5\u771f\u7684\u9019\u6a23\u8d70\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u7279\u6b8a\u60c5\u6cc1\u662f\u6211\u76ee\u524d\u80fd\u60f3\u5f97\u5230\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u7562\u7adf\u9019\u6b21\u6b66\u6f22\u5c01\u7684\u9019\u6a23\u5fb9\u5e95\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u662f\u4eba\u985e\u53f2\u4e0a\u6700\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u793e\u6703\u5b78\u5be6\u9a57\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u7684\u9694\u96e2\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ea\u80fd\u4e8b\u5f8c\u8af8\u845b\u4e86\u3002\u53e6\u5916\u7279\u5225\u63d0\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u5287\u672c\u7684\u7e3d\u78ba\u8a3a\u4eba\u6578\u662f\u5169\u842c\u4eba\uff0c\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u5c31\u662f J. Read \u63a8\u4f30 1\/22 \u524d\u7684\u611f\u67d3\u6578\uff0c\u81f3\u65bc\u7d50\u679c\u5982\u4f55\uff0c\u518d\u904e\u4e00\u5468\u898b\u5206\u66c9\u3002\uff082\/02 \u66f4\u65b0\uff1a\u9019\u500b\u7248\u672c\u5f9e 1\/30 ~ 2\/02 \u7684\u65b0\u589e\u78ba\u8a3a\u4eba\u6578\u4f86\u770b\u5df2\u7d93\u7834\u529f\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u5287\u672c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e1f\u6389\u4e86\uff01\uff09<\/p>\n

\u5728\u9019\u908a\u7279\u5225\u5f37\u8abf\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u5716\u4e0a\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u90fd\u662f\u5728\u6b66\u6f22\u80ba\u708e\u75ab\u60c5\u6c92\u6709\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u4e2d\u570b\u5883\u5167\u57ce\u5e02\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u7fa4\u805a\u611f\u67d3\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u624d\u6210\u7acb\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u82e5\u5f9e\u5176\u4ed6\u57ce\u5e02\u958b\u59cb\u65b0\u7684\u6563\u64ad\uff0c\u6703\u7206\u767c\u51fa\u65b0\u7684\u7368\u7acb\u75ab\u60c5\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u548c\u820a\u7684\u66f2\u7dda\u4ea4\u758a\uff0c\u6703\u8b93\u6578\u64da\u5224\u8b80\u76f8\u5c0d\u8907\u96dc\u3002\u82e5\u8981\u8003\u616e\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u6703\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u5716\u4e0a\u6c92\u756b\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u300c\u72c0\u6cc1\u56db\u300d\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u6e2f\u5927\u91ab\u6881\u5353\u5049\u8b1b\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u4ed6\u5927\u57ce\u5e02\u904d\u5730\u958b\u82b1\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u5c31\u771f\u7684\u8981\u843d\u5230\u4e09\u56db\u6708\u624d\u80fd\u5584\u4e86\uff08\u8a3b\u4e5d\uff09\u3002\uff082\/02 \u66f4\u65b0\uff1a\u570b\u969b\u91ab\u5b78\u6b0a\u5a01\u671f\u520a\u300aThe Lancet\u300b\u5728 2\/01 \u767c\u8868\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u8ad6\u6587\uff0c\u6839\u64da\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b78\u6a21\u578b\u63a8\u4f30\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u8981\u5230\u56db\u6708\u4e4b\u5f8c\u624d\u6703\u9054\u5230\u9ad8\u5cf0\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3010\u7d50\u8ad6\u8207\u8072\u660e\u3011<\/p>\n

\u5728\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\u6211\u8a66\u8457\u4ee5\u7c21\u5316\u5f8c\u7684\u53cd\u61c9\u52d5\u529b\u5b78\u6a21\u578b\u4f86\u63cf\u8ff0\u50b3\u67d3\u75c5\u7684\u50b3\u64ad\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u8a66\u8457\u8b93\u5177\u6709\u9ad8\u4e2d\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5316\u5b78\u57fa\u790e\u7684\u4eba\u4ee5\u76f4\u89c0\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u7406\u89e3\u50b3\u67d3\u6027\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u7206\u767c\u8207\u75ab\u60c5\u7279\u5fb5\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u82e5\u662f\u5728\u6b66\u6f22\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u6c92\u6709\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u767c\u751f\u75ab\u60c5\u50b3\u64ad\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u6b64\u6b21\u4e2d\u570b\u7684 2019-nCoV \u6b66\u6f22\u80ba\u708e\u75ab\u60c5\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u5728\u4e8c\u6708\u5e95\u5c31\u80fd\u6536\u5c3e\uff0c\u8996\u9632\u75ab\u6210\u6548\u9ad8\u4f4e\uff0c\u6700\u7d42\u7684\u78ba\u8a3a\u4eba\u6578\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u843d\u5728\u516d\u842c\u5230\u4e8c\u5341\u56db\u842c\u4eba\u4e4b\u9593\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u53e6\u5916\u672c\u7bc7\u4e3b\u8981\u662f\u4f5c\u70ba\u6559\u80b2\u7528\u9014\uff0c\u5617\u8a66\u4ee5\u7406\u79d1\u6559\u79d1\u66f8\u4e2d\u6559\u904e\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u4f86\u5e6b\u52a9\u5927\u5bb6\u7406\u89e3\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u9032\u5c55\u3002\u672c\u7bc7\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u975e\u5e38\u7c21\u964b\uff0c\u6709\u975e\u5e38\u591a\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\uff0c\u8207\u5be6\u969b\u72c0\u6cc1\u5dee\u7570\u751a\u9060\uff0c\u4e0d\u5177\u6709\u5b78\u8853\u53c3\u8003\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u4e5f\u672a\u7d93\u540c\u5115\u5be9\u67e5 (peer review)\uff0c\u672a\u7d93\u540c\u5115\u5be9\u67e5\uff0c\u672a\u7d93\u540c\u5115\u5be9\u67e5\uff08\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u6240\u4ee5\u8981\u8aaa\u4e09\u6b21\uff09\uff0c\u4ea6\u4e0d\u80fd\u4f5c\u70ba\u6b63\u5f0f\u7684\u5b78\u8853\u5831\u544a\u3002<\/p>\n

\u518d\u6b21\u5f37\u8abf\uff0c\u672c\u7bc7\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u8981\u8b93\u6709\u9ad8\u4e2d\u5316\u5b78\u80cc\u666f\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u4ee5\u6bd4\u8f03\u76f4\u89c0\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u53bb\u7406\u89e3\u75be\u75c5\u50b3\u67d3\u662f\u600e\u9ebc\u56de\u4e8b\u3002\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\uff0c\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b78\u4e2d\u7d93\u5178\u7684 SIR model\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5728\uff21\u548c\uff22\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u591a\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\uff32\uff08\u4ee3\u8868\u5eb7\u5fa9\u8005\uff09\u3002\u82e5\u5c0d SIR model \u6709\u4e86\u89e3\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u6703\u767c\u73fe\u672c\u7bc7\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u53ea\u6709 S \u548c I\uff08\u5c0d\u61c9\u5230\uff21\u548c\uff22\uff09\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6c92\u6709\u8fa6\u6cd5\u7b97 reproductive number (R0) \u9019\u9805\uff08\u76f8\u7576\u65bc\u88ab\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u4e00\u76f4\u5177\u6709\u50b3\u67d3\u529b\uff0c\u9019\u9ede\u5f88\u4e0d\u7b26\u5408\u771f\u5be6\u4e16\u754c\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff09\u3002
\nhttps:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/\u2026\/Compartmental_models_in_epidemio\u2026<\/p>\n

\u3010\u6578\u64da\u66f4\u65b0 2\/01 \u3011<\/p>\n

\u672c\u6587\u767c\u8868\u65bc 1\/30\uff0c\u5716\u4e0a\u5448\u73fe\u7684\u6578\u64da\u53ea\u7d71\u8a08\u5230 1\/29\u3002\u6b64\u5f8c\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u5883\u5167\u6bcf\u65e5\u65b0\u589e\u78ba\u8a3a\u4eba\u6578\u88dc\u5145\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a<\/p>\n

1\/30 \u65b0\u589e 1982 \u4eba\uff08\u5287\u672c\u4e8c\u4f30 1755 \u4eba\uff09
\n1\/31 \u65b0\u589e 2102 \u4eba\uff08\u5287\u672c\u4e8c\u4f30 2116 \u4eba\uff09
\n2\/01 \u65b0\u589e 2590 \u4eba\uff08\u5287\u672c\u4e8c\u4f30 2512 \u4eba\uff09
\n2\/02 \u65b0\u589e 2829 \u4eba\uff08\u5287\u672c\u4e8c\u4f30 2929 \u4eba\uff09
\n2\/03 \u65b0\u589e 3235 \u4eba\uff08\u5287\u672c\u4e8c\u4f30 3340 \u4eba\uff09
\n2\/04 \u65b0\u589e 3887 \u4eba\uff08\u5287\u672c\u4e8c\u4f30 3711 \u4eba\uff09<\/p>\n

\u3010\u53c3\u8003\u6587\u737b\u3011<\/p>\n

\uff3b\u8a3b\u4e00\uff3d\u6b66\u6f22\u80ba\u708e\u78ba\u8a3a\u4eba\u6578\u6578\u64da\u4f86\u6e90<\/p>\n

WHO – Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) situation reports<\/a>
\n\u4e2d\u83ef\u4eba\u6c11\u5171\u548c\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u885b\u751f\u5065\u5eb7\u59d4\u54e1\u6703<\/a>
\n\u9cf3\u51f0\u65b0\u805e\u6578\u64da\u5373\u6642\u66f4\u65b0<\/a><\/p>\n

\uff3b\u8a3b\u4e8c\uff3d<\/p>\n

Chris T. Bauch, et al. (2005) \u201cDynamically Modeling SARS and Other Newly Emerging Respiratory Illnesses: Past, Present, and Future.\u201d Epidemiology, 16, pp. 791-801.<\/p>\n

\uff3b\u8a3b\u4e09\uff3d<\/p>\n

WHO – Cumulative Number of Reported Probable Cases of SARS<\/a><\/p>\n

\u53f0\u7063\u50b3\u67d3\u75c5\u7d71\u8a08\u8cc7\u6599\u67e5\u8a62\u7cfb\u7d71<\/a><\/p>\n

\uff3b\u8a3b\u56db\uff3d
\nhttp:\/\/www.centerforhealthsecurity.org\/\u2026\/2020-01-24-Stateme\u2026<\/p>\n

\uff3b\u8a3b\u4e94\uff3d<\/p>\n

Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions (1\/24 ver. 1.0)<\/a><\/p>\n

\u4e13\u5bb6\uff1a\u6b66\u6c49\u75c5\u6bd2\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u657014\u5929\u5185\u5c06\u7a81\u783425\u4e07<\/a><\/p>\n

\uff3b\u8a3b\u516d\uff3d<\/p>\n

Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions (1\/27 updated. ver. 2.0)<\/a><\/p>\n

\uff3b\u8a3b\u4e03\uff3d<\/p>\n

\u5927\u9678\u5c08\u5bb6\u937e\u5357\u5c71\u9810\u4f30 \u6b66\u6f22\u80ba\u708e\u7d04\u518d\u5341\u5929\u9054\u5230\u9ad8\u5cf0 (1\/29)<\/a><\/p>\n

\uff3b\u8a3b\u516b\uff3d<\/p>\n

\u6b66\u6f22\u80ba\u708e\uff1a\u9999\u6e2f\u5c08\u5bb6\u4f30\u8a08\u903e4\u842c\u4eba\u611f\u67d3 5\u6708\u300c\u898b\u9802\u300d<\/a><\/p>\n

\uff3b\u8a3b\u4e5d\uff3d<\/p>\n

\u4f55\u6e05\u6f23\u5c08\u6b04\uff1a\u6b66\u6f22\u80ba\u708e\u5f15\u767c\u7684\u5168\u7403\u6050\u614c\u624d\u525b\u958b\u59cb<\/a><\/p>\n

Joseph T. Wu, et al. (2020) \u201cNowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study.\u201d The Lancet, in press.\u00a0<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u63a8\u85a6\u95b1\u8b80<\/h2>\n

\u3010\u63db\u4f5c\u662f\u4f60\uff0c\u6703\u600e\u9ebc\u767c\u53e3\u7f69\u3011\u53e3\u7f69\u5be6\u540d\u5236\u9084\u662f\u7f75\u4e0d\u505c\uff01\u300c32 \u7a2e\u5967\u5ba2\u53cd\u61c9\u300d\u5e36\u4f60\u770b\uff1a\u53e3\u7f69\u53ea\u8981\u77ed\u7f3a\uff0c\u5c31\u96e3\u6709\u597d\u6c7a\u7b56<\/a><\/p>\n

\u3010\u70ba\u4f55 WHO \u548c\u4e2d\u570b\u7709\u4f86\u773c\u53bb\u30116 \u5104\u7d05\u5305\u65e9\u5165\u4e16\u885b\u53e3\u888b\uff01\u4e2d\u5171 26 \u5e74\u524d\u958b\u59cb\u91d1\u63f4\u975e\u6d32\u591a\u570b\uff0c\u518d\u7528 2 \u4efd\u6587\u4ef6\u300c\u5361\u6b7b\u53f0\u7063\u300d\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n

\u4e9e\u88d4\u5728\u6b50\u6d32\u5730\u9435\u300c\u6234\u53e3\u7f69\u300d\u88ab\u8d95\u4e0b\u8eca\uff01\u65c5\u5916\u53f0\u4eba\u89e3\u5bc6\uff1a\u6b50\u3001\u4e9e\u4e0d\u540c\u300c\u9632\u75ab\u89c0\u300d\u8b93\u6b50\u6d32\u4eba\u898b\u53e3\u7f69\u5c31\u6050\u614c<\/a><\/p>\n

\u300c\u4e82\u4e1f\u53e3\u7f69\u300d\u6050\u8b93\u4f60\u6211\u7684\u53e3\u7f69\u767d\u6234\u4e86 \u2500\u2500\u91ab\u9662\u505c\u8eca\u5834\u3001\u8def\u6a39\u7e2b\u6210\u6b66\u6f22\u80ba\u708e\u300c\u75c5\u83cc\u6eab\u5e8a\u300d\uff01ICU \u91ab\u751f\uff1a\u4e1f\u53e3\u7f69\u548c\u6234\u53e3\u7f69\u4e00\u6a23\u91cd\u8981<\/a><\/p>\n

\uff08\u672c\u6587\u7d93\u539f\u4f5c\u8005 \u5f90\u4e1e\u5fd7 \u6388\u6b0a\u8f49\u8f09\uff0c\u4e26\u540c\u610f BuzzOrange \u7de8\u5beb\u5c0e\u8b80\u8207\u4fee\u8a02\u6a19\u984c\uff0c\u539f\u6587 \u9023\u7d50<\/a>\u3002\u9996\u5716\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b \u3002\uff09<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u3010\u6211\u5011\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u8981\u6311\u9078\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u3011 \u65b0\u578b\u51a0\u72c0\u75c5\u6bd2\u5728\u4e2d\u570b\u9020\u6210\u7684\u6b66\u6f22\u80ba\u708e\u78ba\u8a3a\u75c5\u4f8b\u6bcf\u65e5\u6301\u7e8c\u6500\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b3\u65e5\u518d\u65b0\u589e\u78ba\u8a3a\u75c5\u4f8b3235\u4f8b\uff0c\u81ea\u75ab\u60c5\u7206\u767c\u81f3\u4eca\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7d2f\u7a4d\u78ba\u8a3a\u75c5\u4f8b\u5df2\u7a81\u78342\u842c\uff0c\u6b7b\u4ea1\u75c5\u4f8b425\u4f8b\uff0c\u8d85\u904e17\u842c\u4eba\u6b63\u5728\u63a5\u53d7[…]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":22478,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[38,10947,10948,10949,10950,10351,1440,10951,10952,1180,10953,10954,1546,10955,10956],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3286"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3286"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3286\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36698,"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3286\/revisions\/36698"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/22478"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3286"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3286"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3286"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}