{"id":2981,"date":"2020-03-19T16:06:44","date_gmt":"2020-03-19T08:06:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/2020\/03\/19\/tw-testing-covid-19\/"},"modified":"2021-09-01T21:41:01","modified_gmt":"2021-09-01T13:41:01","slug":"tw-testing-covid-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/2020\/03\/19\/tw-testing-covid-19\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u53f0\u7063\u70ba\u4f55\u4e0d\u5b78\u97d3\u570b\u5168\u9762\u7be9\u6aa2\u3011\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u4e0a\u932f\u8aa4\u7387\u50c5 1%\u300c\u4ecd\u5927\u91cf\u6c92\u75c5\u78ba\u8a3a\u300d\uff0c\u300c\u8108\u7d61\u5f0f\u300d\u6aa2\u9a57\u80fd\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u63ea\u75c5\u6bd2"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>\u3010\u6211\u5011\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u9078\u64c7\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\uff1f\u3011<\/p>\n<p>\u64da\u300a\u91d1\u878d\u6642\u5831\u300b<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cna.com.tw\/news\/aopl\/202003130426.aspx\">\u5831\u5c0e<\/a>\uff0c\u9019\u6ce2\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\uff08\u6b66\u6f22\u80ba\u708e\uff09\u75ab\u60c5\uff0c\u97d3\u570b\u7be9\u6aa2\u7387\u6700\u9ad8\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u97d3\u570b\u5f9e\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u7206\u767c\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u5927\u90b1\u5e02\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u5373\u91dd\u5c0d\u7121\u75c7\u72c0\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u53ef\u80fd\u66b4\u9732\u5728\u75c5\u6bd2\u5e95\u4e0b\u7684\u6c11\u773e\uff0c\u90fd\u7d66\u4e88\u7be9\u6aa2\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5df2\u7be9\u6aa2 21 \u842c\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\u96a8\u8457\u53f0\u7063\u75ab\u60c5\u5347\u6eab\uff0c\u6709\u7db2\u53cb\u958b\u59cb<a href=\"https:\/\/www.ptt.cc\/bbs\/Gossiping\/M.1583753512.A.3CF.html\">\u8a0e\u8ad6<\/a>\u300c\u53f0\u7063\u63a1\u5168\u9762\u7be9\u6aa2\u300d\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u672c\u7bc7\u4f5c\u8005\u5c31\u8981\u7528\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u89e3\u7b54\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u81f3\u4eca\u4ecd\u4e0d\u63a1\u7528\u300c\u5168\u9762\u7be9\u6aa2\u300d\u7684\u9053\u7406\u4f55\u5728\u3002\uff08\u8cac\u4efb\u7de8\u8f2f\uff1a\u9ec3\u6885\u8339\uff09<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<div id=\"attachment_188049\" style=\"width: 850px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-188049\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-large wp-image-188049\" src=\"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/20200317000129L-1-1024x576.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"840\" height=\"473\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-188049\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u91ab\u6aa2\u5e2b\u5728\u5be6\u9a57\u5ba4\u5167\u8ca0\u8cac\u6aa2\u9a57\u6b66\u6f22\u80ba\u708e\u75c5\u6bd2\u3002\u9996\u5716\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cna.com.tw\/news\/aloc\/202003170282.aspx\">\u4e2d\u592e\u793e<\/a>\u3002<\/p><\/div>\n<p style=\"text-align: right\">\u6587\uff0f<a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/NeanderthalArtisan\/photos\/a.891581694267622\/2940129966079441\/?type=3&amp;__tn__=H-R\">\u76f2\u773c\u7684\u5c3c\u5b89\u5fb7\u5854\u77f3\u5668\u5320<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u6240\u6709\u6aa2\u9a57\u65b9\u6cd5\u90fd\u6709\u51fa\u932f\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u3002\u4ec0\u9ebc\u53eb\u507d\u967d\u6027\uff1f\u6c92\u6709\u75c5\u4f46\u662f\u6aa2\u9a57\u51fa\u4f86\u6709\u75c5\u3002\u4ec0\u9ebc\u53eb\u507d\u9670\u6027\uff1f\u6709\u75c5\u4f46\u662f\u6aa2\u9a57\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u6c92\u75c5\u3002\u7576\u5be6\u969b\u6709\u75c5\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5f88\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u5927\u6a23\u672c\u6aa2\u9a57\u6642\uff0c\u6703\u767c\u751f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u72c0\u6cc1\u5462\uff1f<\/p>\n<h2>\u7528\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u4f30\u7b97\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u82e5\u63a1\u5168\u9762\u7be9\u6aa2\u5408\u9069\u55ce\uff1f<\/h2>\n<p>\u73fe\u5728\u6709 10000 \u500b\u4eba\uff0c\u7576\u4e2d\u6c92\u75c5 9900 \u4eba\u3001100 \u4eba\u6709\u75c5\uff0c\u6709\u75c5\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u70ba 1%\uff0c\u6aa2\u9a57\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\u6a5f\u7387\u70ba 1%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6c92\u75c5\u7684 9900 \u4eba\uff0c\u6aa2\u9a57\u7d50\u679c\uff1a99 \u4eba\u6709\u75c5\u30019801 \u4eba\u6c92\u75c5\u3002\u6709\u75c5\u7684 100 \u4eba\uff0c\u6aa2\u9a57\u7d50\u679c\uff1a99 \u4eba\u6709\u75c5\u30011 \u4eba\u6c92\u75c5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6aa2\u9a57\u7d50\u679c\u5408\u8a08\uff1a198 \u4eba\u6709\u75c5\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u6709\u75c5\u7684\u70ba 99 \u4eba\uff0c\u4e00\u534a\u662f\u507d\u967d\u6027\u3002\u5c31\u662f\u5de6\u5716\u7684 Type I Error\u30029802 \u4eba\u6c92\u75c5\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u6709\u75c5\u7684\u70ba 1 \u4eba\uff0c0.01% \u662f\u507d\u9670\u6027\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u53f3\u5716\u7684 Type II Error\u3002<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_188022\" style=\"width: 850px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-188022\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"size-large wp-image-188022\" src=\"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/90198180_2940129972746107_2542098530122596352_o-1024x414.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"840\" height=\"340\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-188022\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u5716\u7247\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/NeanderthalArtisan\/photos\/a.891581694267622\/2940129966079441\/?type=3&amp;theater\">\u4f5c\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b<\/a>\u3002<\/p><\/div>\n<p>\u6211\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u4e0d\u597d\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u540d\u8a5e\u53ef\u80fd\u5f88\u53e3\u8a9e\uff0c\u91cd\u9ede\u662f\u9019\u4e9b\u6578\u5b57\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u5be6\u969b\u6709\u75c5\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u3001\u6aa2\u9a57\u932f\u8aa4\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u3001\u6aa2\u9a57\u6a23\u672c\u7684\u6578\u76ee\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u8da8\u52e2\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\uff1a<\/p>\n<p>1. \u5be6\u969b\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5f88\u4f4e<br \/>\n2. \u932f\u8aa4\u7387\u4e0d\u7528\u591a\u9ad8<br \/>\n3. <span style=\"color: #800000\"><strong>\u7531\u6108\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u6a23\u672c\u4e2d\u6aa2\u9a57\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u967d\u6027\uff0c\u6709\u6108\u9ad8\u7684\u6578\u76ee\u6703\u662f\u507d\u967d\u6027<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u611b\u5047\u8a2d\u932f\u8aa4\u7387\u53ea\u6709 0.1% \u9019\u7a2e\u8fd1\u4e4e\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\uff0c\u8da8\u52e2\u9084\u662f\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5982\u679c\u5047\u8a2d\u932f\u8aa4\u7387\u662f 0%\u22ef\u22ef\u5443\uff0c\u8207\u73fe\u5be6\u812b\u7bc0\u8981\u6709\u500b\u9650\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0a\u662f\u67d0\u4e9b\u79d1\u7cfb\u53ef\u80fd\u5927\u4e00\u5c31\u5b78\u904e\u7684\u57fa\u790e\u7d71\u8a08\uff0c\u8c9d\u6c0f\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u4e0d\u8981\u8aaa\u6c92\u6709\u5b78\u904e\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u5373\u4f7f\u5b78\u904e\uff0c\u4e5f\u7121\u6cd5\u61c9\u7528\u5728\u5be6\u969b\u72c0\u6cc1\u4e0a\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u70ba\u4f55\u53f0\u7063\u4e0d\u50cf\u97d3\u570b\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u63a1\u53d6\u5168\u9762\u7be9\u6aa2\uff1f<\/h2>\n<p>\u6240\u4ee5\u8aaa\u53f0\u7063\u73fe\u5728\u5230\u5e95\u8981\u6aa2\u9a57\u591a\u5c11\u4eba\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u554f\u984c\u662f\u53f0\u7063\u76ee\u524d\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u6aa2\u9a57\u80fd\u529b\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u554f\u984c\u662f\u6aa2\u9a57\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u7fa9\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u606f\u606f\u76f8\u95dc\uff0c\u537b\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\u5169\u500b\u554f\u984c\u3002\u9019\u4e5f\u662f\u300c\u5feb\u7be9\u300d\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u50f9\u503c\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u5feb\u7be9\u7814\u767c\u6c92\u9019\u9ebc\u5feb\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u8981\u518d\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #800000\"><strong>\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u65b9\u6cd5\u53ef\u4ee5\u964d\u4f4e\u507d\u967d\u6027\u7684\u5e72\u64fe\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u66ff\u967d\u6027\u7684\u4eba\u91cd\u8907\u6aa2\u9a57\uff0c\u53e6\u5916\u5e38\u898b\u7684\u4f5c\u6cd5\u662f\u300c\u8981\u770b\u8108\u7d61\u300d\uff1a\u6709\u611f\u67d3\u6a5f\u6703\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5be6\u969b\u6709\u75c5\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u7576\u7136\u6bd4\u8f03\u5927\uff0c\u91dd\u5c0d\u9019\u4e9b\u4eba\u6aa2\u9a57\uff0c\u507d\u967d\u6027\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5c31\u6703\u6bd4\u8f03\u4f4e\uff0c\u662f\u6aa2\u9a57\u4e0a\u6700\u6700\u6700\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u5e38\u8b58\u3002\uff08\u300aBO\u300b\u7de8\u6309\uff1a\u76ee\u524d\u6700\u6709\u611f\u67d3\u6a5f\u6703\u8005\uff0c\u5247\u662f\u6709\u65c5\u904a\u53f2\u548c\u63a5\u89f8\u53f2\u7684\u6c11\u773e\u3002\uff09<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u6aa2\u9a57\u9084\u6709\u500b\u554f\u984c\u5728\u65bc\uff0c\u5b83\u53ea\u662f\u53d6\u6a23\u7576\u4e0b\u7684\u72c0\u6cc1\u3002\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u4f60\u6aa2\u9a57\u5b8c\u662f\u9670\u6027\u5f88\u9ad8\u8208\uff0c\u51fa\u9580\u5403\u8457\u706b\u934b\uff0c\u5531\u8457\u6b4c\uff0c\u7a81\u7136\u88ab\u9ebb\u532a\u50b3\u67d3\u5c31\u8b8a\u967d\u6027\u60f9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u81f3\u65bc\u97d3\u570b\u63a1\u53d6\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u6aa2\u9a57\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u5c40\u52e2\u8ddf\u53f0\u7063\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\u3002\u97d3\u570b\u4e00\u958b\u59cb\u7fa4\u805a\u611f\u67d3\uff0c\u8a31\u591a\u5730\u5340\u51fa\u73fe\u7368\u7acb\u7684\u78ba\u8a3a\u75c5\u4f8b\u5f8c\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u9810\u671f\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u88ab\u50b3\u67d3\u3002\u7576\u6797\u5b50\u88e1\u7684\u9ce5\u592a\u591a\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u4e82\u69cd\u6253\u9ce5\u6bd4\u8f03\u5212\u7b97\uff0c\u91cd\u9ede\u662f\u5148\u6253\u5230\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u9ce5\u6bd4\u8f03\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u9019\u6642\u6253\u932f\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u512a\u5148\u8003\u616e\u7684\u91cd\u9ede\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u5f8c\u518d\u8aaa\u4e00\u4ef6\u95dc\u9375\u7684\u4e8b\u3002\u5c0e\u81f4<span style=\"color: #800000\"><strong>\u76ee\u524d\u75ab\u60c5\u7684 SARS-CoV-2 \uff08\u300aBO\u300b\u7de8\u6309\uff1a\u6b64\u70ba COVID-19 \u75be\u75c5\u7684\u6b63\u5f0f\u75c5\u6bd2\u540d\u7a31\uff09\u5c0d\u4eba\u985e\u800c\u8a00\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u5168\u65b0\u7684\u75c5\u6bd2\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u91dd\u5c0d\u5b83\u7684\u6aa2\u9a57\u90fd\u662f\u5168\u65b0\u8a2d\u8a08\uff0c\u5c0f\u6a23\u672c\u4e0b\u6c92\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u64f4\u5927\u4f7f\u7528\u5f8c\uff0c\u5230\u5e95\u6709\u591a\u53ef\u9760\u5176\u5be6\u4e0d\u6e05\u695a\u3002<\/strong><\/span>\u7f8e\u570b\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u6aa2\u6e2c\u56b4\u91cd\u5ef6\u5b95\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u539f\u56e0\u5c31\u662f\u9023 CDC \u751f\u7522\u7684\u8a66\u5291\u90fd\u51fa\u554f\u984c\u3002\u53e6\u5916 WHO \u7684\u8a66\u5291\u4e5f\u6709\u51fa\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u9020\u6210\u507d\u967d\u6027\u6216\u507d\u9670\u6027\u7684\u6aa2\u9a57\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u65b0\u805e\u6bd4\u8f03\u5c0f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e4b\u524d\u5169\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u77ed\u6642\u9593\u5167\u51fa\u73fe\u5927\u91cf\u75c5\u4f8b\u7684\u72c0\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4e00\u5207\u8cc7\u8a0a\u8aa0\u5be6\u516c\u5e03\uff08\u7406\u60f3\u5f88\u8c50\u6eff\uff0c\u73fe\u5be6\u5927\u6982\u5f88\u9aa8\u611f\uff1f\uff09\uff0c\u6aa2\u9a57\u7d50\u679c\u4e5f\u6709\u4e0d\u5c11\u554f\u984c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5230\u5e95\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u4eba\u611f\u67d3\u3001\u518d\u50b3\u67d3\u7d66\u5225\u4eba\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u3001\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u7121\u75c7\u72c0\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u90fd\u662f\u554f\u865f\u3002\u6bd4\u65b9\u8aaa\uff0c\u4e00\u4f4d\u78ba\u8a3a\u70ba\u967d\u6027\u7684\u300c\u7121\u75c7\u72c0\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u300d\uff0c\u5230\u5e95\u771f\u7684\u662f\u6709\u75c5\u6bd2\u4f46\u662f\u7121\u75c7\u72c0\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u6aa2\u9a57\u932f\u8aa4\uff0c\u6c92\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u507d\u967d\u6027\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u5927\u5bb6\u628a\u4e00\u5806\u6578\u5b57\u52a0\u6e1b\u4e58\u9664\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u8acb\u52d9\u5fc5\u6ce8\u610f\u9019\u4e9b\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5f97\u5230\u5f88\u96e2\u8b5c\u7684\u63a8\u8ad6\u3002<\/p>\n<h2>\u63a8\u85a6\u95b1\u8b80<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/2020\/03\/19\/taiwan-countdown-28-days\/\">\u3010\u53f0\u7063\u6bc0\u6ec5\u5012\u6578 28 \u5929\u3011\u771f\u6b63\u9632\u75ab\u7834\u53e3\u5728 1.6 \u842c\u300c\u904e\u53bb\u300d\u904a\u6b50\u8005\uff01\u8ca0\u58d3\u75c5\u5e8a\u5269 400 \u5e8a\uff0c\u91ab\u751f\u66dd\u75ab\u60c5\u5168\u5883\u64f4\u6563\u95dc\u9375<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/2020\/03\/17\/why-contagion-is-getting-popular-in-usa\/\">\u30109 \u5e74\u524d\u96fb\u5f71\u9810\u8a00\u4eca\u65e5\u75c5\u6bd2\u8d77\u6e90\u3011\u300a\u5168\u5883\u64f4\u6563\u300b\u4f4d\u5217\u5168\u7403\u71b1\u9580\u96fb\u5f71\u7b2c 2 \uff01\u5287\u60c5\u7adf\u548c\u6b66\u6f22\u80ba\u708e\u75ab\u60c5\u6709\u300c2 \u5de7\u5408\u300d<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/2020\/03\/18\/the-true-about-wuhan-virus-in-china\/\">\u3010\u4e2d\u570b\u5c08\u5bb6\uff1a\u6b66\u6f22\u6709\u671b 0 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