{"id":18790,"date":"2014-06-10T10:15:57","date_gmt":"2014-06-10T02:15:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/2014\/06\/10\/the-unpredictable-china-housing-crash\/"},"modified":"2014-06-10T10:15:57","modified_gmt":"2014-06-10T02:15:57","slug":"the-unpredictable-china-housing-crash","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/2014\/06\/10\/the-unpredictable-china-housing-crash\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4e2d\u570b\u623f\u5e02\u6416\u6416\u6b32\u589c\uff0c\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u8a72\u6293\u7dca\u6a5f\u6703\u524d\u5f80\u6295\u8cc7?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"\/\/img.qz.com\/2014\/05\/migrants.jpg?w=1160\" alt=\"\" width=\"699\" height=\"393\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5118\u7ba1\u5404\u754c\u90fd\u767c\u51fa\u9810\u8b66\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u9072\u65e9\u6709\u4e00\u5929\u6703\u5d29\u76e4\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u770b\u5230\u73fe\u5728\u4e2d\u570b\u6aaf\u9762\u4e0a\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u9084\u662f\u4e00\u7247\u6b23\u6b23\u5411\u69ae\u3002\u5c31\u696d\u7387\u6bd4\u4f8b\u9ad8\u3001\u85aa\u6c34\u5e74\u5e74\u6f32\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u65b7\u63d0\u4f9b\u5927\u91cf\u5de5\u4f5c\u7d66\u4eba\u6c11\uff0c\u5404\u4f4d\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u7fa8\u6155\uff1f<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u53ef\u662f\u4e8b\u60c5\u7d55\u5c0d\u6c92\u6709\u8868\u9762\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u9019\u9ebc\u7c21\u55ae\uff0c\u5c31\u4f86\u770b\u770b\u623f\u5730\u7522\u9019\u584a\u5927\u9905\uff0c\u6839\u64da IMF \u8abf\u67e5\uff0c\u623f\u5730\u7522\u6295\u8cc7\u6bcf\u5e74\u88fd\u9020\u81f3\u5c11\u4e2d\u570b 14% \u7684\u90fd\u5e02\u5de5\u4f5c\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u4f46\u5982\u679c\u623f\u50f9\u958b\u59cb\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u90a3\u4e5f\u8868\u793a\u5343\u842c\u540d\u52de\u5de5\u7684\u5c31\u696d\u6a5f\u6703\u99ac\u4e0a\u4e0d\u4fdd\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #800000;\"><strong>\u623f\u5730\u7522\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u5f15\u64ce<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u623f\u5730\u7522\u696d\u727d\u9023\u5ee3\u5927\uff0c\u5b83\u9700\u8981\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u52de\u529b\u6295\u5165\uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u8b93\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u7d71\u8a08\u6578\u5b57\u8b8a\u5f97\u5f88\u597d\u770b\u3002\u5728 2008 \u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u6d77\u562f\u5f8c\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u8a31\u591a\u4eba\u88ab\u8feb\u300c\u4e0b\u5d17\u300d\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u70ba\u4e86\u89e3\u6c7a\u6b64\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u8b93\u9280\u884c\u5927\u91cf\u501f\u8cb8\u7d66\u571f\u5730\u958b\u767c\u8005\u8207\u57fa\u790e\u5efa\u8a2d\u7522\u696d\u3002\u800c\u4e8b\u5be6\u8b49\u660e\u6b64\u8209\u679c\u771f\u6709\u6548\uff0c\u5230 2011 \u5e74\u70ba\u6b62\uff0c\u5efa\u7bc9\u696d\u63d0\u4f9b\u904e\u534a\u6578\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u5438\u5f15\u4e2d\u570b\u5404\u5730\u7684\u79fb\u5de5\u524d\u5f80\u5e02\u5340\u5de5\u4f5c\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u9019\u4e5f\u89e3\u91cb\u5373\u4f7f\u4e2d\u570b\u7684 GDP \u7684\u6210\u9577\u7387\u5f9e 2007 \u5e74\u7684 14.2% \u964d\u5230 2012 \u5e74\u7684 7.5%\uff0c\u5883\u5167\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u6a5f\u6703\u4e26\u7121\u53d7\u5230\u592a\u5927\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"\/\/img.qz.com\/2014\/05\/the-engine-of-china-s-growth-real-estate-investment-growth-real-gdp-growth_chartbuilder1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"687\" height=\"387\" \/><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #800000;\"><strong>\u623f\u5e02\u82e5\u5d29\u76e4\uff0c9 \u5343\u842c\u4eba\u906d\u6b83<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5176\u5be6\u6709\u8a31\u591a\u5831\u5c0e\u4e5f\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u5883\u5167\u8a31\u591a\u5efa\u6848\u5728\u5b8c\u6210\u5f8c\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u6839\u672c\u5c31\u6c92\u4eba\u53bb\u5c45\u4f4f\u800c\u76f4\u63a5\u8b8a\u6210\u9b3c\u57ce\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5728\u5efa\u9020\u7684\u7576\u4e0b\u7684\u78ba\u63d0\u4f9b\u8a31\u591a\u4eba\u4e00\u500b\u66ab\u6642\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u5de5\u4f5c\u4f86\u7684\u5feb\uff0c\u53bb\u7684\u540c\u6a23\u4e5f\u5feb\uff0c\u82e5\u5efa\u5546\u518d\u6301\u7e8c\u9019\u6a23\u6feb\u84cb\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u623f\u5e02\u7f8e\u5922\u7e3d\u6709\u4e00\u5929\u6703\u88ab\u6233\u7834\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5c46\u6642\u4e0d\u53ea\u5efa\u5546\u3001\u8cfc\u5c4b\u8005\u906d\u6b83\uff0c\u5c31\u9023\u52de\u5de5\u4e5f\u6703\u88ab\u6372\u5165\u9019\u5834\u623f\u5e02\u98a8\u66b4\u4e2d\uff0c\u81f3\u65bc\u7a76\u7adf\u6703\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u52de\u5de5\u5462\uff1fIMF \u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11 14% \u7684\u90fd\u5e02\u5c31\u696d\u7387\u6703\u88ab\u5f71\u97ff\u5230\uff0c\u7576\u4e2d\u5305\u542b\u5e38\u5c45\u7576\u5730\u7684\u5c31\u696d\u8005\u3001\u56db\u8655\u6253\u96f6\u5de5\u7684\u79fb\u52d5\u52de\u529b\u4ee5\u53ca\u623f\u5730\u7522\u4e8b\u696d\uff0c\u7e3d\u7684\u4f30\u8a08\u7d04\u6709 9 \u5343\u842c\u4eba\u53e3\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8b1b\u5230 GDP \u5927\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u66f4\u6709\u611f\u4e9b\uff0c\u5149\u662f\u623f\u5730\u7522\u6295\u8cc7\u5c31\u4f54\u6574\u500b\u4e2d\u570b GDP \u7684 12.5%\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0a\u70ba IMF \u7684\u7d71\u8a08\uff0cNomura \u8a8d\u70ba\u623f\u5730\u7522\u4f54 16%; Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale \u5247\u8a8d\u70ba\u81f3\u5c11\u6709 20%\uff0c\u9019\u4ee3\u8868\u623f\u5730\u7522\u696d\u6210\u70ba\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u8d77\u98db\u5341\u5206\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u82e5\u662f\u5d29\u5e02\uff0c\u5176\u5f8c\u679c\u96e3\u4ee5\u60f3\u50cf\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #800000;\"><strong>\u00a0\u5f9e\u9109\u6751\u4f86\u90fd\u5e02\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u53ea\u6c42\u992c\u53e3<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u8df3\u812b\u7d71\u8a08\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u4f86\u770b\u770b\u5be6\u969b\u5f71\u97ff\u5c64\u9762\uff0c\u5047\u8a2d\u4e2d\u570b\u623f\u5730\u7522\u696d\u5d29\u6f70\uff0c\u53d7\u6700\u5927\u6ce2\u53ca\u7684\u6c38\u9060\u662f\u5e95\u5c64\u52de\u5de5\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u53ea\u80fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u52de\u529b\u7684\u5de5\u4eba\uff0c\u4e26\u7121\u591a\u5c11\u63a5\u53d7\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u7e3d\u6578\u4f54 2 \u5104 6 \u5343 9 \u767e\u842c\u4eba\u53e3\u7684\u52de\u5de5\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u5f9e\u9109\u4e0b\u5730\u65b9\u79fb\u52d5\u5230\u90fd\u5e02\u6253\u62fc\u751f\u6d3b\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u4ed6\u5011\u5927\u591a\u5728\u57ce\u5e02\u4e2d\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u4f46\u7531\u65bc\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u6236\u53e3\u653f\u7b56\u57fa\u672c\u4e0a\u7981\u6b62\u4eba\u6c11\u96a8\u610f\u9077\u5f99\uff0c\u8b93\u4ed6\u5011\u6c38\u9060\u88ab\u6b78\u985e\u65bc\u4f86\u81ea\u9109\u6751\u7684\u52de\u529b\uff0c\u7121\u6cd5\u4eab\u6709\u5065\u4fdd\uff0c\u4e14\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u5b69\u5b50\u4e5f\u7121\u6cd5\u5728\u90fd\u5e02\u4e2d\u5c31\u8b80\u3002\u5728 2013 \u5e74\uff0c\u9019\u7fa4\u9109\u6751\u79fb\u5de5\u7684\u6642\u85aa\u5e73\u5747\u662f 11.7 \u584a\u4eba\u6c11\u5e63\uff0c\u5c11\u65bc 1% \u7684\u9109\u6751\u79fb\u5de5\u80fd\u5728\u90fd\u5e02\u4e2d\u64c1\u6709\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u623f\u5b50\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"\/\/img.qz.com\/2014\/05\/5172_9.png?w=600\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"417\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u6bd4\u8d77\u5408\u6cd5\u7684\u57ce\u5e02\u5c45\u6c11\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u65e2\u7121\u6536\u5165\u4fdd\u969c\uff0c\u66f4\u7121\u653f\u5e9c\u798f\u5229\u7167\u9867\uff0c\u9023\u80fd\u5920\u5b89\u8eab\u7acb\u547d\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u90fd\u6210\u70ba\u56f0\u5883\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u5931\u696d\u5c31\u4ee3\u8868\u4ed6\u5011\u4e00\u7121\u6240\u6709\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4ee5\u4e0b\u9019\u5f35\u8868\u53ef\u770b\u5230\u9109\u6751\u79fb\u5de5\u5f9e\u4e8b\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u4ee5\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u4f54\u6700\u591a (31.4%)\uff0c\u7e3d\u6578\u6709 84440 \u842c\u4eba\uff0c\u518d\u4f86\u4f9d\u5e8f\u662f\u5efa\u7bc9\u696d\uff0822.2%\uff09\u3001\u96f6\u552e\u696d\uff0811.3%\uff09\u3001\u904b\u8f38\u696d\uff086.3%\uff09\u7b49\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"\/\/img.qz.com\/2014\/05\/how-china-s-urban-migrant-workers-make-a-living-employment-by-sector_chartbuilder.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"616\" height=\"278\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5176\u4e2d\u5efa\u7bc9\u696d\u4e26\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u84cb\u84cb\u623f\u5b50\u800c\u5df2\uff0c\u9084\u5305\u542b\u5404\u5f0f\u5404\u6a23\u57fa\u790e\u5efa\u8a2d\uff0c\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u7fd2\u6163\u4ee5\u571f\u5730\u8cb7\u8ce3\u3001\u571f\u5730\u6539\u9769\u5efa\u9020\u5404\u5f0f\u5efa\u7269\u4f86\u589e\u52a0\u5c31\u696d\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u9577\u4e45\u4ee5\u4f86\u589e\u5f37\u5730\u65b9\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u8207\u88fd\u9020\u5c31\u696d\u6a5f\u6703\u7684\u8001\u624b\u6bb5\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"\/\/img.qz.com\/2014\/05\/nomura_land-sales-rev.png?w=369\" alt=\"\" width=\"369\" height=\"358\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u5982\u679c\u571f\u5730\u8cb7\u8ce3\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u964d\u4f4e\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u9019\u5957\u5730\u6efe\u9322\uff0c\u9322\u6efe\u5730\u7684\u62db\u6578\u6c92\u6548\u4e86\uff0c\u82e5\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u5c31\u4ee3\u8868\u6295\u8cc7\u505c\u6eef\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6709\u5730\u4e5f\u6c92\u4eba\u8cb7\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"color: #800000;\"><strong>\u5be6\u4f8b\uff1a\u7f8e\u570b\u623f\u5e02\u5d29\u6f70<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4f86\u770b\u770b\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u524d\u4f8b\uff0c2005 \u5e74\u6642\u7f8e\u570b\u623f\u5e02\u6490\u8d77\u6574\u9ad4\u5c31\u696d\u7387\u7684 5.1%\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f 740 \u842c\u4efd\u5de5\u4f5c\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u76f4\u5230 2008 \u5e74\uff0c\u537b\u7e2e\u6e1b\u4e86\u81f3\u5c11 3 \u5206\u4e4b 1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"\/\/img.qz.com\/2014\/05\/bls_us-construction.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"639\" height=\"372\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u4e0d\u904e\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7576\u521d\u6240\u906d\u9047\u7684\u72c0\u6cc1\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u6700\u597d\u7684\u60c5\u5f62\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u5c31\u696d\u7387\u6bd4\u7f8e\u570b\u9084\u8981\u4f9d\u8cf4\u623f\u5e02\u523a\u6fc0\uff0c\u6574\u6574\u9ad8\u51fa 3 \u500d\u4e4b\u591a\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u653f\u5e9c\u9ad4\u5236\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u7ba1\u63a7\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u80fd\u5920\u591a\u5c11\u907f\u514d\u7576\u521d\u7f8e\u570b\u623f\u5e02\u5d29\u76e4\u7684\u885d\u64ca\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u9084\u662f\u8981\u8003\u616e\u5230\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u53e3\u5982\u6b64\u591a\uff0c\u82e5\u662f\u653e\u4efb\u597d\u5e7e\u5343\u842c\u7121\u696d\u4eba\u53e3\u5728\u5883\u5167\u6d41\u52d5\uff0c\u60f3\u5fc5\u4e5f\u6703\u6210\u70ba\u793e\u6703\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u7684\u96b1\u6182\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u79d1\u6280\u4e0d\u80fd\u89e3\u6c7a\u7684\u4e8b\uff0c\u5c31\u4ea4\u7d66\u300aBuzzOrange\u300b\u5427\uff01<br \/>\n\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u793e\u6703\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u5546\u696d\u3001\u751f\u6d3b\uff0c\u300aBO\u300b\u7d66\u4f60\u8ddf\u5225\u4eba\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\u8996\u91ce\u8207\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c\u52a0\u5165\u6211\u5011\u7684\u7c89\u7d72\u5718\uff0c\u4e00\u8d77 BUZZ\uff01<br \/>\nFacebook \u7c89\u7d72\u5718\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/buzzorange\">https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/buzzorange<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><span style=\"color: #800000;\">\u5ef6\u4f38\u95b1\u8b80\uff1a<\/span><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><a href=\"\/\/buzzorange.com\/2014\/05\/20\/why-millennials-are-hurting-the-real-estate-recovery\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5e74\u8f15\u4e16\u4ee3\u662f\u623f\u5e02\u5fa9\u7526\u7684\u7d46\u8173\u77f3\uff1f<\/a><\/p>\n<p>(\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"\/\/qz.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Quartz<\/a> ; \u5716\u7247\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"\/\/qz.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Quart<\/a>z)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u5118\u7ba1\u5404\u754c\u90fd\u767c\u51fa\u9810\u8b66\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u9072\u65e9\u6709\u4e00\u5929\u6703\u5d29\u76e4\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u770b\u5230\u73fe\u5728\u4e2d\u570b\u6aaf\u9762\u4e0a\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u9084\u662f\u4e00\u7247\u6b23\u6b23\u5411\u69ae\u3002\u5c31\u696d\u7387\u6bd4\u4f8b\u9ad8\u3001\u85aa\u6c34\u5e74\u5e74\u6f32\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u65b7\u63d0\u4f9b\u5927\u91cf\u5de5\u4f5c\u7d66\u4eba\u6c11\uff0c\u5404\u4f4d\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u7fa8\u6155\uff1f \u53ef\u662f\u4e8b\u60c5\u7d55\u5c0d\u6c92\u6709\u8868\u9762\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u9019\u9ebc[&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":266,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[65,133,525],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18790"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/266"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18790"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18790\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18790"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18790"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18790"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}