{"id":17139,"date":"2014-12-09T17:30:56","date_gmt":"2014-12-09T09:30:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/2014\/12\/09\/why-nations-fail-the-origins-of-power-prosperity-and-poverty\/"},"modified":"2014-12-09T17:30:56","modified_gmt":"2014-12-09T09:30:56","slug":"why-nations-fail-the-origins-of-power-prosperity-and-poverty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/2014\/12\/09\/why-nations-fail-the-origins-of-power-prosperity-and-poverty\/","title":{"rendered":"\u99ac\u82f1\u4e5d\u4f60\u9084\u662f\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6703\u6f70\u6557\u55ce\uff1f\u8b80\u9019\u672c\u300c\u570b\u5bb6\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6703\u5931\u6557\u300d\u5427"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>\u300aBO\u300b\u8f15\u7f85\u5c0f\u6247\u6293\u66f8\u87f2\uff5e\u95b1\u8b80\u5c31\u662f\u5f35\u8457\u773c\u775b\u505a\u5922\u3002\u4e00\u8d77\u5206\u4eab\u4e00\u500b\u53e5\u5b50\u3001\u4e00\u672c\u66f8\u3001\u4e00\u500b\u4f5c\u8005\u3001\u4e00\u6bb5\u66f8\u87f2\u8a55\u8ad6\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8981\u6293\u5230\u5f88\u591a\u66f8\u87f2\u5750\u5728\u4e00\u584a\u5543\u66f8\uff0c\u5543\u98df\u6587\u5b57\u88e1\u7684\u7d93\u5178\u4e0d\u673d\u548c\u65b0\u9bae\u77e5\u8b58\uff5e\u556a\uff08\u4e00\u500b\u6293\u5230\u66f8\u87f2\u7684\u72c0\u8072\u8a5e\u6982\u5ff5 lol\uff09<\/p>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>\u4eca\u5929\u8981\u4ecb\u7d39\u7684\u66f8\u662f\uff1a\u300a\u570b\u5bb6\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6703\u5931\u6557<\/strong><strong>\u300b<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">\u9078\u66f8\u8207\u63a8\u85a6\u4eba\uff1a\u300aBO\u300b\u7e3d\u7de8\u8f2f\u5f35\u80b2\u5be7<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"\/\/buzzorange.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/4937099857_f51b2c9ab6_z.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-21028 size-kopa-image-size-3\" src=\"\/\/buzzorange.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/4937099857_f51b2c9ab6_z-518x369.jpg\" alt=\"4937099857_f51b2c9ab6_z\" width=\"518\" height=\"369\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"color: #993300; text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>1. \u63a8\u85a6\u4eba\u8a9e\uff1a<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>2014 \u5e74\u53f0\u7063\u4e5d\u5408\u4e00\u5927\u9078\u7d50\u675f\uff0c\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u6f70\u6557\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u51fa\u4f86\u5c0d\u9053\u6b49\u4e0b\u53f0\u4e00\u97a0\u8eac\u7684\u4e0d\u662f\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u4e3b\u5e2d\u99ac\u82f1\u4e5d\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u884c\u653f\u9662\u9577\u6c5f\u5b9c\u6a3a\uff0c\u627f\u64d4\u6557\u9078\u4e8b\u5be6\u800c\u6cae\u55aa\u50b7\u5fc3\u7684\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u54e1\u56fa\u7136\u56f0\u60d1\u4e0d\u5df2\uff0c\u4e00\u6642\u4e4b\u9593\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u81ea\u5df1\u7ad9\u5728\u9ee8\u90e8\u524d\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u6e96\u5099\u8981\u5c0d\u8ab0\u6297\u8b70\uff0c\u52dd\u9078\u7684\u7121\u9ee8\u7c4d\u67ef\u6587\u54f2\u652f\u6301\u8005\u66f4\u662f\u932f\u6115\u4e0d\u5df2\uff0c\u600e\u9ebc\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u8f38\u4e86\u62ff\u6574\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u4f86\u8ce0\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u884c\u653f\u90e8\u9580\u6700\u9ad8\u9996\u6c92\u6709\u56e0\u70ba 327 \u884c\u653f\u9662\u8840\u8165\u93ae\u58d3\u800c\u4e0b\u53f0\uff0c\u537b\u70ba\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u9ee8\u6d3e\u7684\u9078\u8209\u632b\u6557\u800c\u4e0b\u53f0\uff0c\u73fe\u4efb\u6c11\u9078\u7e3d\u7d71\u99ac\u82f1\u4e5d\u57f7\u653f\u516d\u5e74\u4f86<strong>\u4ee5\u9ee8\u9818\u570b<\/strong>\u3001\u6215\u5bb3\u6c11\u4e3b\u9ad4\u5236\u7684\u60e1\u8cea\u653f\u5ba2\u672c\u8cea\uff0c\u5728\u9019\u6b21\u5730\u65b9\u9078\u8209\u7684\u632b\u6557\u4e2d\uff0c\u8d64\u88f8\u88f8\u7684\u5c55\u73fe\u518d\u7121\u9000\u8def\u3002\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u6f70\u6557\u5f8c\u4e00\u9031\uff0c\u524d\u65e5\uff0812\/8\uff09\u9ee8\u5167<a href=\"https:\/\/tw.news.yahoo.com\/%E5%9C%8B%E6%B0%91%E9%BB%A8%E6%95%97%E6%88%B0%E6%AA%A2%E8%A8%8E-%E6%80%A8-%E5%A9%89%E5%90%9B-%E6%80%AA%E5%AA%92%E9%AB%94-215036137.html\">\u6aa2\u8a0e\u6703\u8b70\u4e0a<\/a>\uff0c\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u8a8d\u70ba\u6557\u9078\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u7db2\u8def\u548c\u5a92\u9ad4\u4e0d\u53cb\u5584\u9020\u6210\uff0c\u5343\u932f\u842c\u932f\u90fd\u662f They \u7684\u932f\u3002\u9019\u500b\u7d50\u8ad6\uff0c\u679c\u7136\uff0c\u53c8\u7372\u5f97\u7db2\u8def\u548c\u5a92\u9ad4\u7684\u300c\u4e0d\u53cb\u5584\u300d\u8a55\u8ad6\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u99ac\u82f1\u4e5d\u548c\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u770b\u4f86\u662f\u771f\u7684\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4ed6\u5011\u6703\u5931\u6557\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u885b\u57ce\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u570b\u5bb6\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6703\u5931\u6557\u300b\u4e2d\u6587\u7248\uff0c\u662f 2013 \u5e74 1 \u6708\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u820a\u66f8\u3002\u9078\u5728\u9019\u500b\u6642\u5019\u5728\u300aBO\u300b\u4e0a\u63a8\u85a6\u9019\u672c\u66f8\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u53f0\u7063\u9019\u6b21\u9078\u8209\u6240\u63ed\u9732\u7684\u50b3\u7d71\u653f\u6cbb\u793e\u6703\u56f0\u5883\uff0c\u6b63\u662f\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e2d\u6240\u8981\u56de\u7b54\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff1a<strong><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6a23\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u6703\u5931\u6557\uff1f<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4f5c\u8005\u904b\u7528\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u5be6\u8b49\u7814\u7a76\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u56de\u7b54\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\uff1a<strong>\u82e5\u80fd\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0a\u81f4\u529b\u65bc\u4fdd\u8b77\u8ca1\u7522\u6b0a\u3001\u5236\u8a02\u4e0d\u56e0\u4eba\u800c\u7570\u7684\u904a\u6232\u898f\u5247\u3001\u9f13\u52f5\u8cc7\u6e90\u5f80\u65b0\u79d1\u6280\u65b9\u5411\u6295\u8cc7\uff1b\u4e26\u4e14\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u5ee3\u6cdb\u5206\u914d\u6b0a\u529b\u3001\u5efa\u7acb\u5236\u8861\u4e26\u9f13\u52f5\u591a\u5143\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u570b\u5bb6\u5c31\u80fd\u6301\u7e8c\u767c\u5c55\u3002\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u570b\u5bb6\u82e5\u88ab\u53ea\u60f3\u652b\u53d6\u8cc7\u6e90\u7684\u5c11\u6578\u653f\u6cbb\u83c1\u82f1\u628a\u6301\uff0c\u5247\u5fc5\u7136\u8d70\u5411\u8870\u6557\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u99ac\u82f1\u4e5d\u8207\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u904e\u53bb\u9019\u5e7e\u5e74\u6240\u4f5c\u7684\uff0c\u4e0d\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u4efb\u7531\u53ea\u60f3\u652b\u53d6\u8cc7\u6e90\u7684\u5c11\u6578\u653f\u6cbb\u83c1\u82f1\u628a\u6301\u300d\uff0c\u63a8\u51fa\u5177\u6709\u6b0a\u8cb4\u80cc\u666f\u7684\u9023\u52dd\u6587\u64d4\u4efb\u53f0\u5317\u5e02\u9577\u5019\u9078\u4eba\uff0c\u4efb\u7531\u6b63\u9762\u81e8\u9078\u5340\u7f77\u514d\u5371\u6a5f\u7684\u7acb\u6cd5\u59d4\u54e1\u8521\u6b63\u5143\u64d4\u4efb\u7af6\u9078\u7e3d\u5e79\u4e8b\uff0c\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u5c31\u5df2\u7d93\u660e\u767d\u5411\u53f0\u7063\u793e\u6703\u53cd\u8986\u8b49\u660e\uff0c\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u57f7\u610f\u65bc\u4ee5\u300c\u69a8\u53d6\u578b\u300d\u570b\u5bb6\u5236\u5ea6\u5f62\u5851\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9084\u597d\u6211\u5011\u624b\u4e0a\u9084\u6709\u9078\u7968\uff0c\u5f97\u4ee5\u6709\u6a5f\u6703\u62d2\u7d55\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u7684\u8b2c\u8aa4\u6cbb\u570b\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u516c\u6c11\uff0c\u4e5f\u6b63\u9762\u81e8\u5de8\u5927\u6311\u6230\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6b63\u5982\u672c\u66f8\u63a8\u85a6\u5e8f\u4f5c\u8005\u3001\u81fa\u7063\u5927\u5b78\u7d93\u6fdf\u7cfb\u6559\u6388\u6797\u660e\u4ec1\u6240\u8aaa\u7684\uff0c\u7576\u672c\u66f8\u4f5c\u8005\u5f97\u51fa\u300c\u5ee3\u7d0d\u578b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5236\u5ea6\u300d\u6703\u8207\u300c\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e14\u91cd\u8996\u591a\u5143\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u5ee3\u7d0d\u578b\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u300d\u5f62\u6210\u826f\u6027\u5faa\u74b0\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\u6642\uff0c\u300c<strong>\u5c0d\u65bc\u6b63\u671d\u5ee3\u7d0d\u578b\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u826f\u6027\u5faa\u74b0\u9081\u9032\u7684\u6211\u5011\uff08\u53f0\u7063\uff09<\/strong>\uff0c<strong>\u8981\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u88ab\u5438\u5165\u69a8\u53d6\u578b\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u60e1\u6027\u5faa\u74b0\u4e2d\uff1f\u300d<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u5c24\u5176\u662f\uff0c\u672c\u66f8\u4f5c\u8005\u53e6\u5916\u82b1\u4e86\u7bc7\u7ae0\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u570b\u5728\u5168\u7403\u5927\u570b\u5d1b\u8d77\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u5236\u5ea6\u578b\u614b\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u4e2d\u570b\u6b63\u662f\u69a8\u53d6\u578b\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u6216\u8a31\u80fd\u9ad8\u901f\u6210\u9577\uff0c\u4f46\u9577\u671f\u537b\u6703\u8b93\u793e\u6703\u4ed8\u51fa\u9f90\u5927\u4ee3\u50f9\u6642\uff0c\u53f0\u7063\u8981\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u69a8\u53d6\u5f0f\u7d93\u6fdf\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u8a98\u60d1\u4e2d\uff0c\u627e\u51fa\u5c6c\u65bc\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u8def\uff1f<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"color: #993300; text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>2. \u8ab0\u9069\u5408\u95b1\u8b80\u9019\u672c\u66f8\uff1f<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u99ac\u82f1\u4e5d\u548c\u570b\u6c11\u9ee8\u5011\uff0c\u8d81\u8457\u6557\u9078\u7684\u50b7\u53e3\u9084\u75bc\uff0c\u8d95\u5feb\u8b80\u8b80\u9019\u672c\u66f8\uff0c\u6216\u8a31\u66f4\u6709\u555f\u767c\u3002\u4f46\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u6700\u8a72\u770b\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u6bcf\u4e00\u500b\u5728\u4e4e\u53f0\u7063\u6c11\u4e3b\u793e\u6703\u4e0b\u4e00\u968e\u6bb5\u9032\u5316\u3001\u5728\u4e4e\u53f0\u7063\u4e0b\u4e00\u4ee3\u7684\u53f0\u7063\u516c\u6c11\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6797\u660e\u4ec1\u63a8\u85a6\u5e8f\u5c0d\u672c\u66f8\u5167\u5bb9\u6709\u6070\u5230\u597d\u8655\u7684\u6458\u8981\u8207\u5c0e\u8b80\uff0c\u503c\u5f97\u5728\u8b80\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u597d\u597d\u54c1\u5473\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\"><span style=\"color: #993300; text-decoration: underline;\"><strong>3. \u63a8\u85a6\u6307\u6578\uff1a\u2605\u2605\u2605\u2605<strong>\u2605<\/strong><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"\/\/www.books.com.tw\/exep\/assp.php\/Techorange\/products\/0010573978?utm_source=Techorange&amp;utm_medium=ap-books&amp;utm_content=recommend&amp;utm_campaign=ap-201412\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-20456\" src=\"\/\/buzzorange.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/1203-211x300.jpg\" alt=\"n1\" width=\"271\" height=\"385\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u672c\u66f8\u66f8\u6458\uff1a\u3008\u63a8\u85a6\u5e8f \u2500\u2500 \u5927\u54c9\u554f\uff0c\u5927\u54c9\u7b54\u3009<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\">\u6797\u660e\u4ec1\uff0f\u81fa\u7063\u5927\u5b78\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7cfb\u6559\u6388\u3001\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b78\u9662\u7d93\u6fdf\u7cfb\u4ea4\u63db\u5b78\u8005<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u6234\u8499\uff08Jared Diamond\uff09\u6559\u6388\u89aa\u81ea\u4e3b\u6301\u3001\u4f9d\u5176\u66a2\u92b7\u66f8\u300a\u69cd\u70ae\u3001\u75c5\u83cc\u8207\u92fc\u9435\u300b\u88fd\u64ad\u7684\u5f71\u7247\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u958b\u982d\u6234\u8499\u7684\u65b0\u5e7e\u5167\u4e9e\u670b\u53cb\u5c31\u554f\u4ed6\uff1a\u300c\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u767d\u4eba\u6709\u9019\u9ebc\u591a\u597d\u7269\uff0c\u800c\u6211\u5011\u65b0\u5e7e\u5167\u4e9e\u4eba\u9019\u9ebc\u5c11\uff1f\u300d<\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u4e4d\u807d\u4e4b\u4e0b\u5e73\u6de1\u7121\u5947\uff0c\u4f46\u537b\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u4eba\u985e\u793e\u6703\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff1a\u9577\u671f\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u8207\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u4f86\u6e90\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f\u4e00\u5343\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u6c34\u6e96\u4e26\u672a\u6709\u592a\u5927\u7684\u5dee\u7570\uff0c\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e00\u5343\u5e74\u5f8c\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\u7684\u6240\u5f97\u662f\u963f\u5bcc\u6c57\u4eba\u7684\u4e94\u5341\u500d\uff1f\u800c\u975e\u6d32\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u570b\u5bb6\u6bcf\u4eba\u5e73\u5747\u570b\u6c11\u6240\u5f97\u90fd\u4e0d\u8d85\u904e\u4e00\u5343\u7f8e\u5143\uff1f\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u5de5\u696d\u9769\u547d\u55ce\uff1f\u90a3\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5b83\u767c\u751f\u5728\u82f1\u570b\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u6216\u975e\u6d32\uff1f\u570b\u5bb6\u8981\u5982\u4f55\u624d\u80fd\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u767c\u5c55\uff1f\u600e\u6a23\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u6703\u8d70\u5411\u8870\u6557\uff1f\u96e3\u602a\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\u76e7\u5361\u65af\uff08Robert Lucas\uff09\u66fe\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u4e00\u65e6\u958b\u59cb\u601d\u8003\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u7684\u8d77\u6e90\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u5f88\u96e3\u518d\u60f3\u5225\u7684\u554f\u984c\u4e86\uff01\u300d<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u5730\u7406\u74b0\u5883\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4e00\u5207\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u6234\u8499\u5728\u4ed6\u7684\u66f8\u4e2d\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u7c21\u6f54\u6709\u529b\u7684\u7b54\u6848\uff1a\u300c\u5730\u7406\u74b0\u5883\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4e86\u4e00\u5207\u3002\u300d\uff08\u7ffb\u6210\u767d\u8a71\u5c31\u662f\uff1a\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u662f\u547d\uff01\uff09\u4e5d\u5343\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u5e78\u904b\u4f4f\u5728\u80a5\u6c83\u65b0\u6708\u7684\u4eba\u5011\uff0c\u5f9e\u63a1\u96c6\u9032\u5165\u4e86\u8fb2\u8015\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u5b78\u6703\u4e86\u7a2e\u690d\u8207\u99b4\u5316\u5982\u99ac\u3001\u8c6c\u7b49\u91ce\u751f\u52d5\u7269\uff0c\u8fb2\u696d\u751f\u7522\u529b\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u8b93\u4eba\u985e\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u7cbe\u529b\u767c\u5c55\u66f4\u8907\u96dc\u7684\u6587\u5316\u3001\u6280\u8853\u8207\u793e\u6703\u7d50\u69cb\uff1b\u800c\u6b50\u4e9e\u5927\u9678\u7684\u6a6b\u5411\u9023\u7d50\uff0c\u6709\u5225\u65bc\u7f8e\u6d32\u6216\u975e\u6d32\u5927\u9678\u7684\u7e31\u5411\u9023\u7d50\uff0c\u56e0\u4e0d\u9700\u6a6b\u8de8\u4e0d\u540c\u7def\u5ea6\uff08\u56e0\u6b64\u6c92\u6709\u6c23\u5019\u9069\u61c9\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff09\uff0c\u4e5f\u8b93\u6574\u500b\u4ea4\u6d41\uff08\u4e0d\u8ad6\u662f\u8cbf\u6613\u3001\u6230\u722d\u3001\u6280\u8853\u6216\u75be\u75c5\u53ca\u5176\u62b5\u6297\u529b\uff09\u8207\u767c\u5c55\u76f8\u5c0d\u5bb9\u6613\u3002\u9019\u500b\u4e00\u958b\u59cb\u7684\u8d77\u9ede\u512a\u52e2\uff08head start\uff09\u7d93\u904e\u9577\u6642\u671f\u7684\u6b63\u5411\u5faa\u74b0\uff08positive feedback loop\uff09\u4e0d\u65b7\u7d2f\u7a4d\u5f8c\uff0c\u5230\u5341\u4e94\u4e16\u7d00\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u8db3\u4ee5\u652f\u6301\u6b50\u4e9e\u4ee5\u69cd\u70ae\u8207\u75c5\u83cc\u6b96\u6c11\u7f8e\u6d32\u8207\u975e\u6d32\uff0c\u958b\u5c55\u4e94\u767e\u5e74\u7684\u9738\u6b0a\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u662f\u4e00\u958b\u59cb\u7684\u5730\u7406\u74b0\u5883\u6240\u9020\u6210\uff01<\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u500b\u7406\u8ad6\u770b\u4f86\u975e\u5e38\u5438\u5f15\u4eba\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u5b78\u8005\u5982\u54e5\u502b\u6bd4\u4e9e\u5927\u5b78\u7684\u6c99\u514b\u65af\uff08Sachs\uff09\u4e5f\u6301\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c \u4f46\u662f\u6709\u4eba\u6216\u8a31\u6703\u554f\uff1a\u300c\u90a3\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u904e\u53bb\u4e94\u767e\u5e74\u4f86\u6b50\u6d32\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u9818\u5148\u4e9e\u6d32\uff1f\u800c\u8a31\u591a\u5730\u7406\u6587\u5316\u74b0\u5883\u5e7e\u4e4e\u5b8c\u5168\u76f8\u540c\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u5982\u5357\u5317\u97d3\u3001\u751a\u81f3\u662f\u7f8e\u58a8\u908a\u5883\u4e0a\u50c5\u4e00\u7246\u4e4b\u9694\u7684\u5169\u500b\u5c0f\u57ce\u93ae\uff0c\u5728\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u537b\u5982\u6b64\u4e0d\u540c\uff1f\u300d<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u7b28\u86cb\uff01\u554f\u984c\u5728\u5236\u5ea6\uff01<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u827e\u585e\u9ed8\u9b6f\u548c\u7f85\u8cd3\u68ee\u4ee5\u5169\u4eba\u5341\u4e94\u5e74\u4f86\u5171\u540c\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u56de\u7b54\u4e86\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\uff1a\u4e0d\u662f\u5730\u7406\u74b0\u5883\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5236\u5ea6\u2500\u2500\u662f\u6211\u5011\u5982\u4f55\u7d44\u7e54\u793e\u6703\u4f86\u751f\u7522\u4e26\u5206\u914d\u8cc7\u6e90\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u904e\u7a0b\uff0c\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4e86\u6211\u5011\u4eca\u5929\u662f\u5426\u7e41\u69ae\u660c\u76db\uff01\u5236\u5ea6\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u524d\u63d0\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u6c7a\u5b9a\u570b\u5bb6\u8d70\u5411\u8208\u76db\u6216\u8870\u6557\u7684\u6700\u5927\u539f\u56e0\u3002<span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><strong>\u82e5\u80fd\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0a\u81f4\u529b\u65bc\u4fdd\u8b77\u8ca1\u7522\u6b0a\u3001\u5236\u8a02\u4e0d\u56e0\u4eba\u800c\u7570\u7684\u904a\u6232\u898f\u5247\u3001\u9f13\u52f5\u8cc7\u6e90\u5f80\u65b0\u79d1\u6280\u65b9\u5411\u6295\u8cc7\uff1b\u4e26\u4e14\u5728\u653f\u6cbb\u4e0a\u5ee3\u6cdb\u5206\u914d\u6b0a\u529b\u3001\u5efa\u7acb\u5236\u8861\u4e26\u9f13\u52f5\u591a\u5143\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u570b\u5bb6\u5c31\u80fd\u6301\u7e8c\u767c\u5c55\u3002\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u570b\u5bb6\u82e5\u88ab\u53ea\u60f3\u652b\u53d6\u8cc7\u6e90\u7684\u5c11\u6578\u653f\u6cbb\u83c1\u82f1\u628a\u6301\uff0c\u5247\u5fc5\u7136\u8d70\u5411\u8870\u6557\u3002<\/strong><\/span>\u5169\u4eba\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u5c07\u6b64\u4e8c\u8005\u5b9a\u7fa9\u70ba\u5ee3\u7d0d\u578b\uff08inclusive\uff0c\u6216\u4e5f\u53ef\u8b6f\u70ba\u6db5\u7d0d\uff09\u548c\u69a8\u53d6\u578b\uff08extractive\uff09\u5236\u5ea6\u3002\u4f5c\u8005\u5373\u4ee5\u9019\u5169\u500b\u6982\u5ff5\u8cab\u7a7f\u5168\u66f8\uff0c\u8a0e\u8ad6\u793e\u6703\u79d1\u5b78\u4e2d\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u4e5f\u56f0\u96e3\u7684\u554f\u984c\u4e4b\u4e00\uff1a\u4ec0\u9ebc\u539f\u56e0\u6c7a\u5b9a\u4e86\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u9078\u64c7\uff1f\u9019\u500b\u9078\u64c7\u7684\u9577\u671f\u5f8c\u679c\u53c8\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u66f8\u4e2d\u5217\u8209\u51fa\u8a31\u591a\u6b77\u53f2\u5be6\u4f8b\u4f86\u53cd\u8986\u95e1\u8ff0\u9019\u7d44\u6838\u5fc3\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u5169\u4eba\u8ad6\u8b49\u300c\u5ee3\u7d0d\u578b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5236\u5ea6\u300d\u6703\u8207\u300c\u6c11\u4e3b\u4e14\u91cd\u8996\u591a\u5143\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u5ee3\u7d0d\u578b\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u300d\u5f62\u6210\u826f\u6027\u5faa\u74b0\u3001\u76f8\u4e92\u652f\u6301\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u4ee5\u82f1\u570b\u5149\u69ae\u9769\u547d\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c\u5f9e\u4ee5\u8b70\u6703\u70ba\u4e3b\u8981\u653f\u6cbb\u6b0a\u529b\u904b\u4f5c\u5834\u57df\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u7d93\u904e\u4ee3\u8868\u793e\u6703\u5404\u500b\u52e2\u529b\u76f8\u4e92\u5236\u8861\u7684\u52d5\u614b\u653f\u6cbb\u904e\u7a0b\uff08\u96d6\u7136\u5176\u4e2d\u6216\u6709\u4f60\u6b7b\u6211\u6d3b\uff0c\u8a66\u5716\u70ba\u81ea\u5df1\u5718\u9ad4\u8a2d\u7acb\u63a0\u596a\u578b\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u9b25\u722d\uff09\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u4e86\u5ee3\u7d0d\u6027\u653f\u6cbb\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u826f\u6027\u5faa\u74b0\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c0d\u65e5\u5f8c\u5de5\u696d\u9769\u547d\u7684\u8a95\u751f\u53ca\u82f1\u570b\u7684\u767c\u5c55\uff0c\u5960\u4e0b\u4e86\u826f\u597d\u7684\u57fa\u790e\uff1b\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u300c\u69a8\u53d6\u578b\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u300d\u5247\u6703\u8207\u300c\u69a8\u53d6\u578b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5236\u5ea6\u300d\u76f8\u4e92\u5531\u548c\uff0c\u5f62\u6210\u60e1\u6027\u5faa\u74b0\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u77ed\u671f\u4e4b\u5167\u6703\u6709\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\uff0c\u4f46\u5fc5\u7136\u7121\u6cd5\u6301\u7e8c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u4e5f\u5f80\u5f80\u6bd4\u6211\u5011\u6240\u60f3\u50cf\u7684\u9084\u8981\u5f71\u97ff\u6df1\u9060\u3002\u66f8\u4e2d\u4e5f\u5f15\u7528\u5169\u4f4d\u7686\u65bc\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b78\u7d93\u6fdf\u7cfb\u4efb\u6559\u7684\u65b0\u79c0\u52aa\u6069\uff08Nathan Nunn\uff09\u8207\u6234\u723e\uff08Melissa Dell\uff09\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4f86\u652f\u6301\u6b64\u4e00\u8ad6\u9ede\u3002\u52aa\u6069\u6574\u7406\u56db\u767e\u5e74\u524d\u975e\u6d32\u9ed1\u5974\u8cb7\u8ce3\u904b\u9001\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u300c\u7576\u5e74\u300d\u8f38\u51fa\u6108\u591a\u5974\u96b8\u7684\u5730\u5340\uff0c\u300c\u73fe\u5728\u300d\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u6108\u5dee\u3002\u6216\u8a31\u6709\u4eba\u6703\u554f\uff1a\u300c\u8aaa\u4e0d\u5b9a\u6b64\u4e00\u76f8\u95dc\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u6108\u8ca7\u7aae\u5730\u5340\u8f38\u51fa\u6108\u591a\u5974\u96b8\u7684\u7de3\u6545\u3002\u300d\u4f46\u662f\u5176\u5be6\u6b63\u597d\u76f8\u53cd\u2500\u2500\u5974\u96b8\u8f38\u51fa\u662f\u8207\u8a72\u5730\u5340\u8ddf\u6e2f\u53e3\u7684\u8ddd\u96e2\u6709\u95dc\uff08\u4ee5\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u8853\u8a9e\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u5373\u662f\u4ee5\u6e2f\u53e3\u8ddd\u96e2\u4f5c\u70ba\u5de5\u5177\u8b8a\u6578\uff09\u3002\u4f9d\u7167\u4ed6\u7684\u4f30\u8a08\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7576\u5e74\u6c92\u6709\u5974\u96b8\u8cbf\u6613\uff0c\u975e\u6d32\u73fe\u5728\u8207\u4e16\u754c\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u5340\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u6703\u7e2e\u5c0f\u767e\u5206\u4e4b\u4e03\u5341\uff01\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u7576\u6642\u9ed1\u5974\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u88ab\u89aa\u53cb\u6216\u4ed6\u65cf\u62d0\u9a19\u5f37\u64c4\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6642\u81f3\u4eca\u65e5\uff0c\u5c0d\u4ed6\u4eba\u7684\u4fe1\u4efb\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e5f\u53d7\u5230\u7576\u5e74\u5974\u96b8\u4ea4\u6613\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff01\u6234\u723e\u5247\u662f\u4ee5\u897f\u73ed\u7259\u6b96\u6c11\u7955\u9b6f\u5883\u5167\u6642\u6240\u5be6\u884c\u7684\u539f\u4f4f\u6c11\u5f37\u8feb\u5974\u5f79\u5236\u5ea6\uff08\u7a31\u4e4b\u70ba\u7c73\u5854\ufe5dmita\ufe5e\uff09\u70ba\u7814\u7a76\u5c0d\u8c61\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u5373\u4f7f\u5230\u4e86\u4eca\u5929\uff0c\u5728\u7c73\u5854\u908a\u754c\u7dda\uff08\u6b64\u5373\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u56de\u6b78\u4e0d\u9023\u7e8c\u6cd5\ufe5dregression discontinuity\ufe5e\uff09\u5169\u908a\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u8207\u751f\u6d3b\u6c34\u6e96\uff0c\u90fd\u4ecd\u7136\u6709\u4e0d\u5c0f\u7684\u5dee\u7570\uff01<\/p>\n<p>\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u4e5f\u5f9e\u8a31\u591a\u9762\u5411\u4f86\u8a0e\u8ad6\u5236\u5ea6\u662f\u5982\u4f55\u5f62\u6210\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u5728\u570b\u5bb6\u9762\u81e8\u5341\u5b57\u8def\u53e3\u6642\uff0c\u4e9b\u5fae\u7684\u5dee\u7570\uff08\u5982\u5341\u4e03\u4e16\u7d00\u7684\u82f1\u570b\u8207\u897f\u73ed\u7259\uff09\u53ef\u80fd\u5c31\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u6289\u64c7\u3002\u900f\u904e\u8774\u8776\u6548\u61c9\uff0c\u6578\u767e\u5e74\u5f8c\u5169\u570b\u6a23\u8c8c\u5c31\u6703\u5927\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u800c\u6709\u8c50\u6c9b\u81ea\u7136\u8cc7\u6e90\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u4e5f\u6703\u53d7\u5230\u6b64\u4e00\u6069\u8cdc\u7684\u8a5b\u5492\u3002\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u83c1\u82f1\u5728\u767c\u5c55\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\uff0c\u7d93\u5e38\u626e\u6f14\u7684\u662f\u963b\u529b\u800c\u975e\u52a9\u529b\u7684\u89d2\u8272\uff01\u9019\u4e9b\u63a8\u8ad6\u904e\u7a0b\u8207\u6b77\u53f2\u4e8b\u5be6\u7684\u9023\u7d50\uff0c\u5728\u66f8\u4e2d\u4fef\u62fe\u7686\u662f\uff0c\u5c55\u73fe\u4e86\u5169\u4f4d\u4f5c\u8005\u535a\u89bd\u7fa4\u66f8\u3001\u65c1\u5fb5\u535a\u5f15\u7684\u529f\u529b\uff01\u6211\u60f3\u6211\u5c31\u4e0d\u8981\u518d\u7206\u96f7\uff0c\u628a\u9019\u4e9b\u95b1\u8b80\u7684\u6a02\u8da3\u7559\u7d66\u8b80\u8005\u5427\uff01<\/p>\n<p>\u800c\u9019\u4e9b\u8ad6\u9ede\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u4e5f\u5c0d\u767c\u5c55\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u8207\u806f\u5408\u570b\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u975e\u71df\u5229\u7d44\u7e54\u8a72\u5982\u4f55\u5354\u52a9\u8ca7\u7aae\u570b\u5bb6\u7522\u751f\u4e86\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u6709\u4e9b\u5b78\u8005\u5982\u4f0a\u65af\u7279\u5229\uff08William Easterly\uff09\u5c31\u62b1\u6028\uff1a\u73fe\u5728\u6709\u592a\u591a\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u80fd\u91cf\u82b1\u5728\u897f\u65b9\u80fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u5354\u52a9\u7684\u5c0f\u4e8b\u4e0a\u2500\u2500\u8981\u767c\u653e\u591a\u5c11\u868a\u5e33\u4f86\u9632\u6cbb\u7627\u75be\uff1f\u767c\u653e\u591a\u5c11\u4fdd\u96aa\u5957\u4f86\u9632\u7bc4\u611b\u6ecb\u75c5\uff1f\u767c\u591a\u5c11\u514d\u8cbb\u8ab2\u672c\u4f86\u589e\u52a0\u6559\u80b2\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff1f\u4f46\u662f\u5c0d\u65bc\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5927\u554f\u984c\u7814\u7a76\u537b\u76f8\u5c0d\u7a00\u5c11\u3002\u6211\u5011\u6216\u8a31\u8a72\u554f\uff1a\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6a23\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u8b93\u9019\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u8d70\u5230\u73fe\u5728\u9019\u500b\u5730\u6b65\uff1f\u54ea\u4e00\u4e9b\u5236\u5ea6\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u6539\u8b8a\u8a72\u5730\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u53ca\u793e\u6703\u767c\u5c55\uff1f\u5982\u679c\u6211\u5011\u4e0d\u80fd\u5f9e\u6839\u672c\u6539\u8b8a\u8cc7\u6e90\u5206\u914d\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u90a3\u518d\u591a\u7684\u63f4\u52a9\uff08\u9019\u4e5f\u662f\u806f\u5408\u570b\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u6a19\u6e96\u505a\u6cd5\u2500\u2500\u9080\u8acb\u5b89\u6f54\u8389\u5a1c\u88d8\u8389\u548c U2 \u6a02\u5718\u4e3b\u5531 BONO \u9001\u611b\u5fc3\u5230\u975e\u6d32\uff09\u4e0d\u4f46\u7121\u6fdf\u65bc\u4e8b\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5e36\u4f86\u53cd\u6548\u679c\uff01\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u52aa\u6069\u548c\u8036\u9b6f\u5927\u5b78\u7684\u9322\u6960\u7b60\uff08Nancy Qian\uff09\u5c31\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u300c\u7ce7\u98df\u63f4\u52a9\u300d\u53cd\u800c\u6703\u4f7f\u975e\u6d32\u767c\u751f\u5167\u6230\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u589e\u52a0\uff01<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u56b4\u8b39\u5b78\u8853\u7814\u7a76\u7d50\u679c\u652f\u6490\u7684\u8ad6\u9ede<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u6709\u6311\u5254\u7fd2\u6163\u6216\u793e\u6703\u79d1\u5b78\u80cc\u666f\u7684\u8b80\u8005\u6216\u8a31\u6703\u62b1\u6028\uff0c\u8a31\u591a\u4f8b\u5b50\u96d6\u7136\u6709\u8da3\u4e14\u5f15\u7528\u5f97\u5b9c\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e0d\u514d\u8b93\u4eba\u6709\u4e8b\u5f8c\u5408\u7406\u5316\uff08ex post rationalization\uff09\u4e4b\u611f\uff1a\u65e2\u7136\u5ee3\u7d0d\u662f\u597d\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u73fe\u5728\u767c\u5c55\u597d\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u5176\u5236\u5ea6\u7d50\u69cb\u4e00\u5b9a\u5c31\u662f\u5ee3\u7d0d\u578b\u7684\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e00\u5b9a\u53ef\u4ee5\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u500b\u958b\u59cb\u5ee3\u7d0d\u578b\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u8d77\u59cb\u9ede\uff0c\u53cd\u4e4b\u4ea6\u7136\u3002\u6703\u8b93\u4eba\u6709\u6b64\u611f\u89ba\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e3b\u8981\u8a2d\u5b9a\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u822c\u8b80\u8005\u7fa4\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5c07\u67af\u71e5\u4e14\u8907\u96dc\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u7d50\u679c\u6216\u6578\u5b78\u6a21\u578b\u63a8\u8ad6\u76f4\u63a5\u8df3\u904e\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u66f8\u4e2d\u7684\u7d50\u8ad6\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u7d93\u540c\u5115\u6fc0\u70c8\u722d\u8faf\u3001\u5be9\u67e5\u5f8c\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u56b4\u8b39\u5b78\u8853\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u4e9b\u904e\u7a0b\u7684\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u76e1\u53ef\u80fd\u5c07\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u5faa\u74b0\u8ad6\u8b49\u6e1b\u5230\u6700\u4f4e\u3002\u6211\u5728\u6b64\u5c31\u8209\u5169\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\u52a0\u4ee5\u4ed4\u7d30\u8aaa\u660e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9996\u5148\u8b93\u6211\u5011\u4f86\u7d30\u8b80\u5169\u4eba\u5728\u4e8c\u25cb\u25cb\u4e00\u5e74\u767c\u8868\u5728\u300a\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u8a55\u8ad6\u300b\uff08<em>American Economics Review<\/em>\uff09\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6587\u7ae0\u2500\u2500\u300c\u6bd4\u8f03\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u6b96\u6c11\u7de3\u8d77\uff1a\u4e00\u500b\u5be6\u8b49\u7814\u7a76\u300d\uff08The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation\uff09\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u4ed6\u5011\u5169\u4eba\u4e00\u958b\u59cb\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u91cc\u7a0b\u7891\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u9019\u4e00\u6574\u652f\u6587\u737b\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u8d77\u9ede\u3002\u5728\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u9996\u5148\u554f\u9053\uff1a<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u8a31\u591a\u5b78\u8005\u90fd\u5df2\u6709\u5171\u8b58\uff0c\u91cd\u8996\u8ca1\u7522\u6b0a\u4fdd\u8b77\u3001\u5be6\u65bd\u8f03\u5c11\u6548\u7387\u626d\u66f2\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6709\u8f03\u4f73\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u8a2d\u8a08\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u6703\u85c9\u7531\u5c07\u8cc7\u6e90\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u7387\u5730\u6295\u6ce8\u5728\u4eba\u529b\u8cc7\u6e90\u3001\u5be6\u9ad4\u8cc7\u672c\u548c\u57fa\u790e\u5efa\u8a2d\u7684\u6539\u5584\u4e0a\uff0c\u6301\u7e8c\u7684\u63a8\u52d5\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\uff1b\u800c\u76f4\u63a5\u89c0\u5bdf\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u570b\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u4e5f\u7684\u78ba\u53ef\u4ee5\u767c\u73fe\u300c\u8ca1\u7522\u6b0a\u4fdd\u8b77\u6307\u6a19\u300d\u8207\u300c\u6bcf\u4eba\u5e73\u5747\u570b\u6c11\u6240\u5f97\u300d\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u78ba\u662f\u6709\u6b63\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u3002\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u7406\u8ad6\u8207\u8cc7\u6599\u76f8\u4e92\u5951\u5408\uff0c\u7d50\u8ad6\u4e5f\u662f\u6211\u5011\u6240\u6a02\u898b\u7684\uff0c\u90a3\u5230\u5e95\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u597d\u64d4\u5fc3\u7684\uff1f<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u500b\u8a13\u7df4\u6709\u7d20\u7684\u793e\u6703\u5b78\u5bb6\u90fd\u6703\u544a\u8a34\u4f60\uff1a\u300c\u76f8\u95dc\u4e0d\u7b49\u65bc\u56e0\u679c\u300d\uff0c\u8ca1\u7522\u6b0a\u4fdd\u8b77\u8207\u570b\u6c11\u6240\u5f97\u7684\u6b63\u76f8\u95dc\u300c\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u300d\u6539\u5584\u8ca1\u7522\u6b0a\u5c31\u6703\u589e\u52a0\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u3002\u300a\u860b\u679c\u6a58\u5b50\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u300b\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\u300c\u8b66\u5bdf\u6108\u591a\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u72af\u7f6a\u7387\u6108\u9ad8\u300d\u73fe\u8c61\u7684\u8a0e\u8ad6\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u5efa\u7acb\u4e26\u7dad\u7e6b\u4e00\u500b\u597d\u7684\u8ca1\u7522\u6b0a\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u662f\u9700\u8981\u6295\u5165\u8a31\u591a\u8cc7\u6e90\u7684\uff08\u60f3\u50cf\u6cd5\u9662\u3001\u8b66\u5bdf\u4ee5\u53ca\u5404\u7a2e\u5178\u7ae0\u5236\u5ea6\u6240\u9700\u7684\u6210\u672c\uff09\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5236\u5ea6\u8207\u570b\u6c11\u6240\u5f97\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u6b63\u5411\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u53ea\u662f\u5bcc\u88d5\u570b\u5bb6\u8f03\u6709\u8cc7\u6e90\u8ca0\u64d4\u8f03\u4f73\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u800c\u5df2\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u9019\u4e9b\u570b\u5bb6\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u689d\u4ef6\u4e0a\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\uff08\u6bd4\u5982\u8aaa\u4eba\u6c11\u8f03\u70ba\u52e4\u596e\u6b63\u76f4\uff0c\u6216\u5929\u7136\u8cc7\u6e90\u8c50\u5bcc\uff09\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u8b93\u5236\u5ea6\u8b8a\u597d\u4ee5\u53ca\u6240\u5f97\u589e\u52a0\u6240\u81f4\u3002\u6b64\u5373\u662f\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u53cd\u5411\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff08reversed causality\uff09\u8207\u907a\u6f0f\u8b8a\u6578\uff08omitted variable\uff09\uff0c\u9019\u5169\u500b\u554f\u984c\u5982\u679c\u4e0d\u89e3\u6c7a\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u89c0\u5bdf\u5c31\u53ea\u662f\u865b\u5047\u76f8\u95dc\u800c\u5df2\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u300c\u5167\u751f\u6027\u554f\u984c\u300d\uff0c\u800c\u89e3\u6c7a\u4e4b\u9053\u5373\u662f\u627e\u5230\u4e00\u500b\u53ea\u6703\u900f\u904e\u6539\u8b8a\u5236\u5ea6\u4f86\u5f71\u97ff\u570b\u6c11\u6240\u5f97\u7684\u300c\u5de5\u5177\u8b8a\u6578\u300d\u3002\u8b80\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u60f3\u50cf\uff0c\u4e0a\u5e1d\u7ad9\u5728\u5730\u7403\u5100\u524d\u9762\u66ff\u6bcf\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u64f2\u9285\u677f\uff0c\u6b63\u9762\u5c31\u7d66\u597d\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u53cd\u9762\u5247\u53cd\u4e4b\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u96a8\u6a5f\u5be6\u9a57\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u4fdd\u8b49\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u8207\u6240\u5f97\u7684\u76f8\u95dc\uff0c\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u300c\u56e0\u679c\u300d\uff01\u73fe\u5be6\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\u7684\u78ba\u5b58\u5728\u9019\u985e\u4f3c\u4e0a\u5e1d\u4e4b\u624b\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u8b8a\u6578\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4e26\u4e0d\u597d\u627e\u3002\u5169\u4f4d\u4f5c\u8005\u6700\u5927\u8ca2\u737b\u5728\u65bc\uff1a\u4ed6\u5011\u4ee5\u300c\u6b50\u6d32\u79fb\u6c11\u5728\u6b96\u6c11\u5730\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u300d\u505a\u70ba\u5de5\u5177\u8b8a\u6578\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u7684\u89e3\u6c7a\u4e86\u5167\u751f\u6027\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u5728\u7627\u75be\u8207\u9ec3\u71b1\u75c5\u6108\u7316\u7357\u4e4b\u8655\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u6b50\u6d32\u4eba\u6108\u96e3\u5728\u8a72\u5730\u79fb\u6c11\u624e\u6839\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6108\u5bb9\u6613\u8a2d\u8a08\u4e00\u500b\u69a8\u53d6\u5f0f\u7684\u6b96\u6c11\u9ad4\u7cfb\uff0c\u5c07\u91cd\u5fc3\u653e\u5728\u5982\u4f55\u5c07\u6b96\u6c11\u5730\u8cc7\u6e90\u63d0\u53d6\u70ba\u6bcd\u570b\u6240\u7528\uff1b\u53cd\u4e4b\u82e5\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u4f4e\uff0c\u8f03\u6613\u843d\u5730\u751f\u6839\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e5f\u5c31\u8f03\u5bb9\u6613\u5c07\u6bcd\u570b\u8f03\u597d\u7684\u8ca1\u7522\u4fdd\u8b77\u3001\u5206\u7acb\u5236\u8861\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u79fb\u690d\u904e\u4f86\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u5728\u6b96\u6c11\u5730\u7368\u7acb\u5f8c\uff0c\u65b0\u8208\u8d77\u7684\u672c\u5730\u653f\u6cbb\u83c1\u82f1\u4e5f\u6703\u56e0\u70ba\u6539\u8b8a\u5236\u5ea6\u6210\u672c\u592a\u5927\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u662f\u672c\u4f86\u5728\u6b96\u6c11\u653f\u6b0a\u4e0b\u5c31\u5df2\u7d93\u8207\u539f\u4f86\u5236\u5ea6\u767c\u5c55\u51fa\u4e00\u5957\u5171\u751f\u5171\u5229\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u800c\u76f4\u63a5\u63a5\u6536\u539f\u672c\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u8def\u5f91\u76f8\u4f9d\u7684\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u7576\u6642\u8a2d\u7acb\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u6301\u7e8c\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u5c0d\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u7522\u751f\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u800c\u9019\u88e1\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u300c\u6b96\u6c11\u5730\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u300d\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u7d55\u4f73\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u8b8a\u6578\uff01\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u5341\u5e74\u4f86\u5df2\u7d93\u88ab\u5f15\u7528\u8d85\u904e\u516d\u5343\u6b21\uff0c\u5176\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u53ef\u898b\u4e00\u822c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u7bc7\u300c\u897f\u65b9\u70ba\u4f55\u8b93\u66f4\u591a\u6c11\u773e\u53ef\u4ee5\u6295\u7968\u300d\uff08Why Did the West Extend the Franchise\uff09\uff0c\u5247\u662f\u5f9e\u653f\u6cbb\u83c1\u82f1\u548c\u6c11\u773e\u9593\u7684\u7b56\u7565\u6027\u4e92\u52d5\uff0c\u4f86\u7814\u7a76\u6295\u7968\u6b0a\uff08\u6c11\u4e3b\uff09\u5982\u4f55\u7522\u751f\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u5f8c\u679c\u70ba\u4f55\u3002\u9019\u96d6\u7136\u662f\u4e00\u7bc7\u76f8\u5c0d\u8907\u96dc\u7684\u6578\u5b78\u6a21\u578b\u8ad6\u6587\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7d50\u8ad6\u537b\u662f\u76f8\u5c0d\u76f4\u89ba\uff1a\u653f\u6cbb\u83c1\u82f1\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u9858\u610f\u958b\u555f\u653f\u6cbb\u6539\u9769\u91cb\u653e\u6b0a\u529b\u7684\u539f\u56e0\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u611b\u8b77\u4eba\u6c11\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u5bb3\u6015\u793e\u6703\u4e0d\u6eff\u60c5\u7dd2\u8513\u5ef6\uff0c\u9020\u6210\u52d5\u76ea\u751a\u81f3\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u9032\u800c\u640d\u53ca\u4ed6\u5011\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u7de3\u6545\u3002\u90a3\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u7d50\u679c\u4e0d\u662f\u5728\u4e0d\u6539\u8b8a\u73fe\u6709\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u524d\u63d0\u4e0b\u9032\u884c\u91cd\u5206\u914d\uff1f\u6bd4\u5982\u8aaa\uff0c\u4e0d\u91cb\u51fa\u6295\u7968\u6b0a\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7b54\u61c9\u6bcf\u4eba\u6bcf\u5e74\u52a0\u767c\u5341\u516c\u65a4\u8c6c\u8089\uff1f\u539f\u56e0\u5f88\u7c21\u55ae\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u500b\u627f\u8afe\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u4fe1\u7684\uff08not credible\uff09\uff1a\u4e00\u65e6\u793a\u5a01\u7fa4\u773e\u5f9e\u5ee3\u5834\u6563\u53bb\uff0c\u8981\u518d\u96c6\u7d50\u8d77\u4f86\u5c31\u5e7e\u4e4e\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\uff0c\u638c\u6b0a\u8005\u7576\u7136\u5c31\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5fc5\u4fe1\u5b88\u627f\u8afe\u4e86\u3002\u5012\u63a8\u56de\u4f86\uff0c\u7fa4\u773e\u5c31\u5fc5\u9808\u5805\u6301\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u76f4\u81f3\u5408\u7406\u53ef\u4fe1\u7684\u5b89\u6392\u51fa\u73fe\u70ba\u6b62\u3002\u800c\u7576\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u5c07\u66f4\u591a\u4eba\u7d0d\u9032\u8cc7\u6e90\u5206\u914d\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\u6642\uff0c\u6b64\u4e00\u5ee3\u7d0d\u5f0f\u7684\u5b89\u6392\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u589e\u52a0\u91cd\u5206\u914d\u653f\u7b56\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\uff0c\u4e26\u6e1b\u5c11\u793e\u6703\u7684\u4e0d\u5e73\u7b49\u3002\u95b1\u8b80\u81f3\u6b64\uff0c\u5c0d\u81fa\u7063\u4e00\u4e5d\u516b\u25cb\u5e74\u4ee3\u958b\u59cb\u7684\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u904e\u7a0b\uff0c\u8207\u63a5\u8457\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u793e\u6703\u798f\u5229\u64f4\u5f35\u76f8\u5c0d\u7167\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u6709\u4f3c\u66fe\u76f8\u8b58\u4e4b\u611f\uff1f\u9019\u5169\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u5176\u5be6\u5c31\u662f\u5169\u4f4d\u4f5c\u8005\u4e00\u8d77\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u8d77\u9ede\uff0c\u66f8\u4e2d\u6240\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u5ee3\u7d0d\u8207\u69a8\u53d6\u4e8c\u8a5e\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u7531\u6b64\u6f14\u5316\u800c\u4f86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9664\u4e86\u8a08\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u7684\u56b4\u8b39\u5916\uff0c\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u8cc7\u6599\u8207\u65c1\u5fb5\u535a\u5f15\u7684\u53f2\u5be6\uff0c\u66f4\u8b93\u4eba\u4f69\u670d\u5169\u4f4d\u4f5c\u8005\u7684\u5beb\u4f5c\u529f\u529b\uff01\u7576\u8a0e\u8ad6\u5230\u6b96\u6c11\u5730\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u7684\u554f\u984c\u6642\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u5c31\u8209\u4e86\u5169\u500b\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u662f\u5341\u4e03\u4e16\u7d00\u7684\u4e00\u6279\u5b97\u6559\u79fb\u6c11\uff0c\u5728\u6700\u5f8c\u95dc\u982d\u53ea\u5269\u5169\u5730\u7684\u6c7a\u9078\u540d\u55ae\u4e2d\u653e\u68c4\u4e86\u572d\u4e9e\u90a3\uff08Guyana\uff09\uff0c\u9078\u64c7\u4e86\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u8f03\u4f4e\u4e4b\u8655\uff1b\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u5247\u662f\u4e00\u4e03\u516b\u4e94\u5e74\u82f1\u570b\u7684\u535a\u5c1a\uff08Beauchamp\uff09\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\uff0c\u672c\u4f86\u8003\u616e\u8981\u5c07\u7f6a\u72af\u904b\u81f3\u897f\u975e\u5ca1\u6bd4\u4e9e\uff08Gambia\uff09\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u4e5f\u662f\u56e0\u8a72\u5730\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7387\u300c\u9023\u5c0d\u7f6a\u72af\u4f86\u8aaa\u90fd\u592a\u9ad8\u300d\u800c\u4f5c\u7f77\u3002\u8b80\u8005\u6216\u8a31\u6703\u597d\u5947\uff1a\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u6b77\u53f2\u5982\u4f55\u767c\u5c55\u5462\uff1f\u90a3\u4e00\u6279\u6e05\u6559\u5f92\u6700\u5f8c\u843d\u8173\u5728\u9ebb\u5dde\u6771\u5cb8\u7684\u666e\u5229\u8305\u65af\uff0c\u800c\u82f1\u570b\u7f6a\u72af\uff0c\u5247\u88ab\u9001\u5230\u6fb3\u5927\u5229\u4e9e\uff01\u800c\u7576\u8a0e\u8ad6\u5230\u6295\u7968\u6b0a\u5982\u4f55\u64f4\u5f35\uff0c\u4f5c\u8005\u4e5f\u4ee5\u82f1\u570b\u3001\u6cd5\u570b\u3001\u5fb7\u570b\u3001\u745e\u5178\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u53f2\u52a0\u4ee5\u4f50\u8b49\uff0c\u80fd\u5920\u540c\u6642\u5c07\u7406\u8ad6\uff08\u6578\u5b78\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u63a8\u5c0e\uff09\u3001\u5be6\u8b49\uff08\u8cc7\u6599\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u5206\u6790\uff09\u4ee5\u53ca\u6b77\u53f2\u4e8b\u5be6\u52a0\u4ee5\u7d50\u5408\u8ad6\u8b49\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u4e0d\u50c5\u662f\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u754c\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5728\u6574\u500b\u793e\u6703\u79d1\u5b78\u754c\u90fd\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u5c11\u898b\u7684\uff01<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u672a\u4f86\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u770b\u6cd5<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u4f7f\u7528\u9019\u500b\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5169\u4f4d\u4f5c\u8005\u4e5f\u5c0d\u76ee\u524d\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u5d1b\u8d77\u8ad6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u7d93\u6fdf\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u672c\u8cea\u4e0a\u4ecd\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u69a8\u53d6\u578b\u5236\u5ea6\u3002\u6539\u9769\u521d\u671f\u7684\u9ad8\u901f\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u7531\u65bc\u5c07\u8a98\u56e0\u7d50\u69cb\u5f15\u9032\u539f\u4f86\u5b8c\u5168\u7121\u6548\u7387\u7684\u751f\u7522\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u5c07\u6574\u500b\u4e2d\u570b\u539f\u4f86\u5b8c\u5168\u932f\u7f6e\u7684\u8cc7\u6e90\u300c\u6b78\u4f4d\u300d\u6240\u7522\u751f\u7684\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u90e8\u4efd\u5247\u662f\u56e0\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u5feb\u901f\u5f15\u9032\u4e86\u6700\u6709\u6548\u7387\u7684\u751f\u7522\u6280\u8853\u53d6\u4ee3\u539f\u6709\u4f4e\u751f\u7522\u529b\u6280\u8853\u800c\u4f86\uff08\u5373\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u6240\u8b02\u7684 technology catch-up\uff09\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u4e00\u958b\u59cb\u7684\u9ad8\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u7387\uff0c\u662f\u5728\u57fa\u671f\u5f88\u4f4e\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u8a08\u7b97\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u4ee5\u8cfc\u8cb7\u529b\u8a55\u50f9\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u6bcf\u4eba\u5e73\u5747\u570b\u6c11\u6240\u5f97\u5728\u4e8c\u25cb\u4e00\u4e8c\u5e74\u4e5f\u53ea\u6709\u516b\u5343\u516b\u767e\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u6bd4\u6cf0\u570b\u3001\u54e5\u502b\u6bd4\u4e9e\u3001\u571f\u8033\u5176\u90fd\u9084\u8981\u4f4e\u3002\u800c\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u90e8\u5206\u662f\u7531\u65bc\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u7368\u5360\u5927\u91cf\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8cc7\u672c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u53ef\u4ee5\u85c9\u7531\u5728\u77ed\u6642\u9593\u4e4b\u5167\u79fb\u52d5\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u7684\u8cc7\u6e90\u5230\u67d0\u500b\u90e8\u9580\u800c\u4f86\u7684\u3002\u800c\u5728\u9019\u500b\u904e\u7a0b\u7576\u4e2d\uff0c\u64c1\u6709\u5be9\u6279\u6b0a\u8207\u9078\u64c7\u6027\u57f7\u6cd5\u6b0a\u529b\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u83c1\u82f1\uff0c\u624d\u662f\u8d81\u6a5f\u652b\u53d6\u4e86\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u79df\u7684\u6700\u5927\u53d7\u76ca\u8005\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u6709\u95dc\u4e2d\u570b\u662f\u7531\u5e7e\u767e\u500b\u83c1\u82f1\u5bb6\u65cf\u900f\u904e\u7dbf\u5bc6\u7684\u653f\u5546\u95dc\u4fc2\u52a0\u4ee5\u7d71\u6cbb\u7684\u5831\u5c0e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u524d\u9663\u5b50\u300a\u7d10\u7d04\u6642\u5831\u300b\u7684\u7368\u7acb\u8abf\u67e5\u6240\u63ed\u9732\u7684\u7e3d\u7406\u7dbf\u5bc6\u6295\u8cc7\u7db2\u7d61\uff0c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u8b49\u5be6\u6b64\u8a00\u4e0d\u865b\u3002\u800c\u5728\u9019\u6a23\u69a8\u53d6\u578b\u7684\u653f\u7d93\u5236\u5ea6\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u6b0a\u529b\u8f2a\u66ff\u7684\u5f8c\u679c\u4e0d\u662f\u4eba\u6c11\u798f\u7949\u7684\u6539\u5584\uff0c\u800c\u53ea\u662f\u63db\u4e86\u4e00\u6279\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u83c1\u82f1\u7372\u53d6\u5229\u76ca\u800c\u5df2\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u5728\u904e\u53bb\u5e7e\u5e74\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u7684\u78ba\u898b\u5230\u4e2d\u570b\u51fa\u73fe\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u96f6\u661f\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u9019\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4ecd\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u5c07\u4e2d\u570b\u63a8\u5411\u4e00\u500b\u5ee3\u7d0d\u578b\u653f\u6cbb\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u5236\u5ea6\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u826f\u6027\u5faa\u74b0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u4ed6\u5011\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u767c\u5c55\u4e0d\u8868\u6a02\u89c0\u7684\u7406\u7531\uff0c\u5247\u662f\u4f86\u81ea\u65bc\u718a\u5f7c\u5f97\u300c\u5275\u9020\u6027\u7684\u7834\u58de\u300d\uff08creative destruction\uff09\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u6b64\u6982\u5ff5\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\uff0c\u7d93\u5e38\u662f\u4e0d\u9023\u7e8c\u7684\u2500\u2500\u6bcf\u9694\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u7e3d\u6703\u6709\u4eba\u5192\u96aa\u6210\u529f\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e00\u500b\u7ffb\u5929\u8986\u5730\u7684\u5927\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u65b0\u751f\u7522\u6280\u8853\u6703\u5c07\u820a\u6280\u8853\u5fb9\u5e95\u6dd8\u6c70\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u6bd4\u8d77\u5728\u539f\u6709\u7684\u6280\u8853\u4e0a\u505a\u5c0f\u898f\u6a21\u7684\u6539\u826f\uff0c\u662f\u66f4\u80fd\u5920\u589e\u9032\u751f\u7522\u529b\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5275\u9020\u6027\u7684\u7834\u58de\u53ea\u80fd\u5728\u5ee3\u7d0d\u578b\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0b\u624d\u6709\u8fa6\u6cd5\u88ab\u5b55\u80b2\u2500\u2500\u60f3\u50cf\u4f9d\u9760\u820a\u6280\u8853\u7372\u5229\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u83c1\u82f1\uff0c\u600e\u9ebc\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u904b\u7528\u5404\u7a2e\u529b\u91cf\u53bb\u6253\u58d3\u6b64\u4e00\u5a01\u8105\u4ed6\u5011\u65e2\u5f97\u5229\u76ca\u7684\u9ede\u5b50\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u4e2d\u570b\u53ea\u80fd\u5c71\u5be8\u65e2\u6709\u7684\u6280\u8853\uff0c\u7121\u6cd5\u5728\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5236\u5ea6\u4e0b\u900f\u904e\u5275\u9020\u6027\u7834\u58de\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\uff0c\u767c\u5c55\u51fa\u53d6\u4ee3\u820a\u505a\u6cd5\u7684\u65b0\u6280\u8853\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u5c31\u6703\u9054\u5230\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u4e0a\u6240\u8b02\u908a\u969b\u7522\u503c\u905e\u6e1b\u7684\u72c0\u614b\uff0c\u7121\u6cd5\u518d\u7e7c\u7e8c\u652f\u6301\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4ed6\u5011\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u5ba3\u7a31\u5df2\u7d93\u627e\u5230\u7d50\u5408\u300c\u653f\u6cbb\u63a7\u5236\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u300d\u7684\u795e\u5947\u8655\u65b9\u9019\u500b\u8aaa\u6cd5\u4e0d\u8cb7\u5e33\u7684\u7de3\u6545\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0b\u9019\u500b\u7a0d\u5e36\u5632\u8af7\u7684\u8aaa\u6cd5\uff0c\u6e96\u78ba\u5730\u50b3\u9054\u4e86\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u8a0a\u606f\uff1a\u300c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u60f3\u50cf\u4e00\u500b\u4e8c\u5341\u6b72\u7684\u5927\u5b78\u8f1f\u5b78\u751f\uff0c\u5411\u570b\u6709\u9280\u884c\u8cb8\u6b3e\uff0c\u6e96\u5099\u958b\u4e00\u5bb6\u53ef\u4ee5\u6311\u6230\u570b\u71df\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u55ce\uff1f\u5728\u4e2d\u570b\uff1f\uff08\u9664\u975e\u4ed6\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u83c1\u82f1\u7684\u4e00\u54e1\uff09\u300d<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u9019\u4e9b\u770b\u6cd5\u5c0d\u6b63\u7ad9\u5728\u5341\u5b57\u8def\u53e3\u4e0a\u7684\u81fa\u7063\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u555f\u793a\uff1a\u5c0d\u65bc\u6b63\u671d\u5ee3\u7d0d\u578b\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u826f\u6027\u5faa\u74b0\u9081\u9032\u7684\u6211\u5011<\/strong>\uff0c<strong>\u8981\u5982\u4f55\u907f\u514d\u88ab\u5438\u5165\u69a8\u53d6\u578b\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u60e1\u6027\u5faa\u74b0\u4e2d\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u5169\u4eba\u500b\u6027\u80cc\u666f\u8fe5\u7570\u4e92\u88dc\u6070\u5230\u597d\u8655<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u827e\u585e\u9ed8\u9b6f\u8207\u7f85\u8cd3\u68ee\u5169\u4eba\u6240\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u6c72\u53d6\u6b77\u53f2\u5206\u6790\u8207\u653f\u6cbb\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7406\u8ad6\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u990a\u5206\u3001\u4ee5\u7d71\u8a08\u65b9\u6cd5\u7d50\u5408\u6b77\u53f2\u8cc7\u6599\u3001\u4f7f\u7528\u570b\u5bb6\u5c64\u7d1a\u8cc7\u6599\u70ba\u5206\u6790\u5c0d\u8c61\u3001\u4e26\u85c9\u7531\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u81ea\u7136\u5be6\u9a57\u70ba\u5207\u5165\u9ede\u7684\u6b77\u53f2\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u6216\u653f\u6cbb\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u5411\u3002\u8a18\u5f97\u5341\u4e8c\u5e74\u524d\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b21\u5728\u829d\u52a0\u54e5\u5927\u5b78\u8c9d\u514b\uff08Gary Becker\uff09\u6559\u6388\u7684\u61c9\u7528\u500b\u9ad4\u7814\u8a0e\u6703\u898b\u5230\u827e\u585e\u9ed8\u9b6f\u6559\u6388\u6642\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u9084\u5c0d\u9019\u7a2e\u89d2\u5ea6\u6709\u8a31\u591a\u7591\u616e\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7d93\u904e\u9019\u4e9b\u5e74\u4f86\u5169\u4eba\u7684\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u624b\u6cd5\u5df2\u7d93\u88ab\u8a31\u591a\u4eba\u6240\u63a5\u53d7\u4e86\u3002\u6211\u672c\u5e74\u5ea6\u6b63\u597d\u5728\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b78\u9662\u64d4\u4efb\u9802\u5c16\u5927\u5b78\u806f\u76df\u4ea4\u63db\u5b78\u8005\uff0c\u4e5f\u56e0\u6b64\u8207\u5169\u4f4d\u5b78\u8005\u719f\u8b58\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u5c31\u8b93\u6211\u5c0d\u5169\u4eba\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u8207\u98a8\u683c\u505a\u66f4\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u5730\u4ecb\u7d39\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u827e\u585e\u9ed8\u9b6f\u6210\u9577\u65bc\u4f0a\u65af\u5766\u5821\uff0c\u4e00\u4e5d\u4e5d\u4e8c\u5e74\u4ee5\u4e8c\u5341\u4e94\u6b72\u7684\u5e74\u7d00\u5c31\u62ff\u5230\u502b\u6566\u653f\u7d93\u5b78\u9662\u535a\u58eb\u4e26\u7559\u6821\u4efb\u6559\uff0c\u9694\u5e74\u5373\u88ab\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u6316\u89d2\u81f3\u4eca\uff0c\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u3001\u52de\u52d5\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7b49\u9818\u57df\u7686\u8457\u4f5c\u7b49\u8eab\uff0c\u662f\u516c\u8a8d\u7684\u591a\u7522\u4e14\u8de8\u9818\u57df\u7684\u5929\u624d\u578b\u5b78\u8005\u3002\u4e8c\u25cb\u25cb\u4e94\u5e74\u7372\u5f97\u514b\u62c9\u514b\u734e\u6642\uff0c\u54c8\u4f5b\u7684\u66fc\u6606\uff08Greg Mankiw\uff09\u9084\u958b\u73a9\u7b11\u7684\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u9054\u502b\uff01\u662f\u6642\u5019\u8b93\u4f60\u7684\u7955\u5bc6\u96d9\u80de\u80ce\u51fa\u4f86\u4e86\uff01\uff08it is <em>time<\/em> to let your <em>secret twin<\/em> out\uff01\uff09\u300d \u540c\u884c\u5c0d\u4ed6\u7684\u8a55\u50f9\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u4e00\u822c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u66fe\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u5728\u9ad8\u4e2d\u4fee\u7fd2\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6642\uff0c\u4ed6\u5c31\u5df2\u7d93\u5c0d\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u570b\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u767c\u5c55\u5982\u6b64\u4e0d\u540c\u7522\u751f\u6975\u5927\u8208\u8da3\u3002\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u6210\u9577\u904e\u7a0b\u4e2d\u7d93\u6b77\u904e\u571f\u8033\u5176\u7684\u8ecd\u4e8b\u7d71\u6cbb\uff0c\u66f4\u662f\u8b93\u4ed6\u9078\u64c7\u4ee5\u653f\u6cbb\u5236\u5ea6\u89d2\u5ea6\u5207\u5165\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7406\u7531\u3002\u800c\u4e0d\u8ad6\u662f\u4e0a\u8ab2\u6216\u5728\u6703\u8b70\u4e0a\u5831\u544a\uff0c\u4ed6\u7e3d\u662f\u8072\u5982\u6d2a\u9418\u3001\u81ea\u4fe1\u6eff\u6eff\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u8eab\u6750\u9ad8\u5927\uff0c\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u5c31\u6709\u96d6\u5343\u842c\u4eba\u543e\u5f80\u77e3\u7684\u6c23\u52e2\uff01\u53bb\u5e74\u5341\u6708\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u6c11\u7d93\u6fdf\u5c40\uff08NBER\uff09\u4e00\u5834\u4ee5\u300c\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u4f55\u8655\u53bb\u300d\u70ba\u984c\u7684\u6f14\u8b1b\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e00\u958b\u59cb\u4ee5\u5c31\u4ee5\u4e00\u4e5d\u516d\u25cb\u5e74\u4ee3\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u8005\u932f\u8aa4\u9810\u6e2c\u8607\u806f\u7d93\u6fdf\u6703\u5728\u4e00\u4e5d\u516b\u25cb\u5e74\u8d85\u8d8a\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u5f80\u4e8b\u4f5c\u70ba\u958b\u5834\u767d\uff08\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u8aaa\u662f\u7d50\u8ad6\uff1f\uff09\uff0c\u628a\u5927\u5bb6\u5c0d\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u7684\u8ff7\u601d\uff0c\u5373\u5927\u5bb6\u5c0d\u6240\u8b02\u4e2d\u570b\u5f0f\u7684\u300c\u7af6\u722d\u300d\u9818\u5c0e\u6a5f\u5236\u3001\u9694\u4ee3\u6307\u6d3e\u8207\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u6b63\u78ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u653f\u7b56\u662f\u9020\u6210\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u7684\u8aaa\u6cd5\uff0c\u4ee5\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u8ad6\u9ede\u52a0\u4ee5\u4e00\u4e00\u53cd\u99c1\u3002\u9019\u6a23\u4e0d\u548c\u7a00\u6ce5\u3001\u64da\u7406\u529b\u722d\u3001\u634d\u885b\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8ad6\u9ede\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u6210\u5c31\u4e00\u4f4d\u597d\u5b78\u8005\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7279\u8cea\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f85\u8cd3\u68ee\u7684\u7236\u89aa\u5247\u662f\u82f1\u570b\u6d3e\u99d0\u6b96\u6c11\u5730\u7684\u5b98\u54e1\uff0c\u5f9e\u5c0f\u8ddf\u7236\u89aa\u4f4f\u904e\u8fe6\u7d0d\u3001\u5948\u53ca\u5229\u4e9e\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5343\u91cc\u9054\u591a\u5df4\u7b49\u5730\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u7279\u6b8a\u7684\u7ae5\u5e74\u7d93\u9a57\uff0c\u986f\u7136\u5728\u4ed6\u5e7c\u5c0f\u7684\u5fc3\u9748\u4e2d\u57cb\u4e0b\u4e86\u300c\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u9019\u88e1\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u8207\u6211\u5982\u6b64\u4e0d\u540c\u300d\u7684\u7591\u554f\u3002\u800c\u4e8c\u25cb\u4e00\u4e8c\u5e74\u79cb\u5b63\u6211\u65c1\u807d\u4e86\u4ed6\u8207\u52aa\u6069\u5408\u958b\u7684\u6bd4\u8f03\u6b77\u53f2\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u8ab2\u7a0b\uff0c\u4e5f\u66f4\u89aa\u7099\u5176\u6559\u5b78\u9b45\u529b\u3002\u4ed6\u4e0d\u4f46\u4e0a\u8d77\u8ab2\u4f86\u535a\u5b78\u591a\u805e\uff0c\u96a8\u624b\u62c8\u4f86\u7684\u53f2\u5be6\u8207\u6240\u8981\u8ad6\u8b49\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u74b0\u74b0\u76f8\u6263\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u653f\u6cbb\u3001\u793e\u6703\u5b78\u5bb6\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c\u5728\u4ed6\u624b\u4e0a\u73a9\u5f04\u8d77\u4f86\u4e5f\u662f\u90a3\u9ebc\u8f15\u9b06\u81ea\u7136\u3002\u66f4\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\u4ed6\u4e00\u9ede\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\u67b6\u5b50\uff0c\u7e3d\u662f\u8010\u5fc3\u807d\u5b8c\u5b78\u751f\u5011\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u518d\u4e00\u4e00\u8207\u5176\u8a0e\u8ad6\u3002\u5c0d\u65bc\u4ed6\u4e0d\u559c\u6b61\u7684\u8ad6\u9ede\uff0c\u4e5f\u50c5\u6703\u4ee5\u8a7c\u8ae7\u5e36\u9ede\u5632\u8af7\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u52a0\u4ee5\u8a55\u8ad6\uff1b\u800c\u5c0d\u65bc\u5c16\u9178\u6279\u8a55\u4ed6\u5011\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6703\u5982\u67d0\u4e9b\u6c92\u6709\u5b89\u5168\u611f\u7684\u5b78\u8005\uff0c\u4ee5\u4fb5\u7565\u6027\u7684\u8a00\u8a9e\u52a0\u4ee5\u53cd\u99c1\uff0c\u9802\u591a\u53ea\u662f\u6de1\u6de1\u5730\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u55ef\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u767c\u8868\u5728\u300a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5b63\u520a\u300b\u4e0a\u3002\uff08ya, but it has been published in QJE.\uff09\u300d\u5c55\u73fe\u51fa\u4e00\u6d3e\u8f15\u9b06\u5beb\u610f\u7684\u82f1\u570b\u7d33\u58eb\u9b45\u529b\u8207\u6c23\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u91dd\u5c0d\u4e00\u822c\u8b80\u8005\u800c\u5beb\u7684\u79d1\u666e\u66f8\u7c4d\uff0c\u5e02\u9762\u4e0a\u4e26\u4e0d\u5c11\u898b\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u80fd\u5920\u5c07\u80cc\u5f8c\u6709\u624e\u5be6\u63a8\u8ad6\u57fa\u790e\u7684\u5b78\u8853\u7814\u7a76\u6210\u679c\uff0c\u8f49\u63db\u6210\u4e00\u822c\u5927\u773e\u53ef\u4ee5\u95b1\u8b80\u4f5c\u54c1\u7684\u5b78\u8005\u4e26\u4e0d\u591a\u898b\u3002\u672c\u66f8\u8207\u300a\u860b\u679c\u6a58\u5b50\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u300b\u5927\u6982\u662f\u904e\u53bb\u5e7e\u5e74\u4f86\uff0c\u5728\u53ef\u8b80\u6027\u8207\u56b4\u8b39\u5ea6\u4e0a\u6700\u597d\u7684\u5169\u672c\u66f8\u3002\uff08\u8a72\u66f8\u4f5c\u8005\u674e\u7dad\u7279\uff0c\u4e5f\u76db\u8b9a\u6b64\u66f8\u662f\u300c\u7c21\u6f54\u6709\u529b\u300d\u7684\u7cbe\u91c7\uff01\uff09\u800c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u51fa\u7248\uff0c\u4e5f\u8b93\u4ed6\u5011\u5728\u975e\u5b78\u8853\u5708\u7684\u540d\u8072\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u5927\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f46\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u6f14\u8b1b\u8207\u9080\u7d04\u4e0d\u65b7\uff0c\u64da\u8aaa\u9023\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u9818\u5c0e\u968e\u5c64\u4e5f\u90fd\u5728\u95b1\u8b80\u9019\u672c\u66f8\uff1a\u6709\u4eba\u628a\u66f8\u540d\u7ffb\u6210\u300c\u570b\u6557\u8ad6\u300d\uff08\u8207\u570b\u5bcc\u8ad6\u76f8\u5c0d\u61c9\uff09\uff0c\u5176\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u53ef\u898b\u4e00\u822c\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u4ee4\u4eba\u611f\u5230\u6b23\u6170\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6b63\u503c\u5b78\u8853\u80fd\u91cf\u7684\u9ad8\u5cf0\u7684\u5169\u4eba\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u5805\u5b88\u5728\u5b78\u8853\u7684\u5d17\u4f4d\u4e0a\u6301\u7e8c\u5275\u4f5c\u3002\u4ed6\u5011\u9019\u5169\u5e74\u4e5f\u5171\u540c\u767c\u8868\u4e86\u5982\u300c\u6cd5\u570b\u5927\u9769\u547d\u7684\u9577\u671f\u5236\u5ea6\u5f71\u97ff\u300d\u3001\u300c\u7d0d\u7cb9\u5927\u5c60\u6bba\u5c0d\u8607\u806f\u9577\u671f\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u300d\u4ee5\u53ca\u300c\u570b\u5bb6\u9078\u64c7\u4f55\u7a2e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5236\u5ea6\u8f03\u70ba\u6709\u5229\u300d\u7b49\u591a\u7bc7\u8ad6\u6587\u3002\u7f85\u8cd3\u68ee\u751a\u81f3\u9084\u5230\u54e5\u502b\u6bd4\u4e9e\u7814\u7a76\u7576\u5730\u8ecd\u95a5\u5982\u4f55\u5f62\u6210\u6cbb\u7406\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u4e26\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u8ecd\u95a5\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u4e4b\u9593\u76f8\u4e92\u7af6\u722d\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\uff01\u5176\u5be6\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u7279\u5225\u662f\u5236\u5ea6\u7684\u8d77\u6e90\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u5f71\u97ff\u4ee5\u53ca\u6f14\u8b8a\u3001\u53ca\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u7d93\u6fdf\u793e\u6703\u72c0\u6cc1\u9593\u7684\u4e92\u52d5\uff0c\u4ecd\u6709\u8a31\u591a\u672a\u89e3\u7684\u96e3\u984c\u3002\u4ee5\u5169\u4eba\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u80fd\u91cf\uff0c\u5728\u4e0d\u4e45\u7684\u5c07\u4f86\uff0c\u80fd\u5920\u518d\u770b\u5230\u4e0b\u4e00\u672c\u985e\u4f3c\u7684\u4f5c\u54c1\uff01<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\">\u2013 \u6587\u5b57\u6458\u81ea\u300a<a href=\"\/\/www.books.com.tw\/exep\/assp.php\/Techorange\/products\/0010573978?utm_source=Techorange&amp;utm_medium=ap-books&amp;utm_content=recommend&amp;utm_campaign=ap-201412\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u570b\u5bb6\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6703\u5931\u6557<\/a>\u300b<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u95dc\u65bc\u672c\u66f8\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>\u6234\u502b\uff0e\u827e\u585e\u9ed8\u9b6f Daron Acemoglu<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5b78\u9662\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u66fe\u4efb\u6559\u65bc\u502b\u6566\u653f\u7d93\u5b78\u9662\u30022005 \u5e74\u7372\u9812\u514b\u62c9\u514b\u734e\u7ae0\uff08John Bates Clark Medal\uff09\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u734e\u5c08\u70ba\u56db\u5341\u6b72\u4ee5\u4e0b\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u601d\u60f3\u8207\u77e5\u8b58\u6709\u91cd\u5927\u8ca2\u737b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u800c\u8a2d\uff0c\u662f\u50c5\u6b21\u65bc\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u734e\u7684\u69ae\u8000\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u672a\u4f86\u6700\u71b1\u9580\u7684\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u734e\u4eba\u9078\u3002\u827e\u585e\u9ed8\u9b6f\u662f\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6587\u737b\u5f15\u7528\u6b21\u6578\u6700\u591a\u7684\u524d\u5341\u540d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u8005\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u8ad6\u6587\u7522\u91cf\u9a5a\u4eba\uff0c\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u754c\u6700\u731b\u608d\u7684\u65b0\u79c0\u3002<\/p>\n<p><strong>\u8a79\u59c6\u65af\uff0e\u7f85\u8cd3\u68ee James A. Robinson<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u54c8\u4f5b\u5927\u5b78\u653f\u5e9c\u7cfb\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u65e2\u662f\u653f\u6cbb\u5b78\u5bb6\u4e5f\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u3002\u4ed6\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u77e5\u540d\u7684\u975e\u6d32\u8207\u62c9\u4e01\u7f8e\u6d32\u5c08\u5bb6\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5728\u525b\u679c\u3001\u7345\u5b50\u5c71\u5171\u548c\u570b\u3001\u6d77\u5730\u8207\u54e5\u502b\u6bd4\u4e9e\u5404\u570b\u7686\u4e3b\u6301\u7814\u7a76\u8a08\u756b\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u590f\u5b63\u6703\u5728\u54e5\u502b\u6bd4\u4e9e\u9996\u90fd\u6ce2\u54e5\u5927\u7684\u5b89\u5730\u65af\u5927\u5b78\u6388\u8ab2\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\uff08\u8cc7\u6599\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a\u885b\u57ce\u51fa\u7248\uff0c\u5716\u7247\u4f86\u6e90\uff1a<a href=\"https:\/\/www.flickr.com\/photos\/dcaid\/4937099857\/in\/photolist-8wgVMk-npTfh-npUfG-oHzzS-8J1ifa-8J1ica-8J1ihz-obwMBu-ods9B2-odsakM-nUbqyj-obwLyh-nUbP7p-nUbPEZ-obATEw-nUbPgn-obASVf-nUbPRF-nUbMTw-obwLi7-nUbq5y-obASMj-npUah-oHzsE-8J1i9M-35oB5o-oHzdZ-npTbu-nf2q7-npSpG-oHzkq-oHzGB-uBvGs-nf2r3-npSqA-npUz9-nf3r2-nf34f-nf2Qv-npSsF-npSrH-nf3pT-npSto-nf3p8-nf2FU-nf2yZ-npT7E-nf3bo-nf2GK-nf2RL\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u963f\u5947<\/a>,CC Licensed\uff09<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u300aBO\u300b\u8f15\u7f85\u5c0f\u6247\u6293\u66f8\u87f2\uff5e\u95b1\u8b80\u5c31\u662f\u5f35\u8457\u773c\u775b\u505a\u5922\u3002\u4e00\u8d77\u5206\u4eab\u4e00\u500b\u53e5\u5b50\u3001\u4e00\u672c\u66f8\u3001\u4e00\u500b\u4f5c\u8005\u3001\u4e00\u6bb5\u66f8\u87f2\u8a55\u8ad6\u3002\u6211\u5011\u8981\u6293\u5230\u5f88\u591a\u66f8\u87f2\u5750\u5728\u4e00\u584a\u5543\u66f8\uff0c\u5543\u98df\u6587\u5b57\u88e1\u7684\u7d93\u5178\u4e0d\u673d\u548c\u65b0\u9bae\u77e5\u8b58\uff5e\u556a\uff08\u4e00\u500b\u6293\u5230\u66f8\u87f2\u7684\u72c0\u8072\u8a5e\u6982\u5ff5 lol\uff09[&#8230;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":109,"featured_media":43790,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[1],"tags":[717,169],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17139"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/109"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17139"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17139\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/43790"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17139"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17139"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17139"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}