{"id":16302,"date":"2015-03-16T12:14:54","date_gmt":"2015-03-16T04:14:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/2015\/03\/16\/the-coming-chinese-crackup\/"},"modified":"2015-03-16T12:14:54","modified_gmt":"2015-03-16T04:14:54","slug":"the-coming-chinese-crackup","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buzzorange.com\/citiorange\/2015\/03\/16\/the-coming-chinese-crackup\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u7684\u7368\u88c1\u3001\u6574\u8085\u7570\u5df1\uff0c\u5c07\u5e36\u9818\u4e2d\u570b\u8d70\u5411\u6ec5\u4ea1"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u300a\u89c0\u5ff5\u5ea7\u6a19\u300b\uff1a\u6c88\u5927\u885b\u535a\u58eb\uff08David Shambaugh\uff09\u662f\u55ac\u6cbb\u83ef\u76db\u9813\u5927\u5b78\u570b\u969b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u7b56\u5ba4\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u5e03\u9b6f\u91d1\u65af\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u7684\u8cc7\u6df1\u7d04\u8058\u7814\u7a76\u54e1\u3002\u4ed6\u7684\u8457\u4f5c\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u300aChina\u2019s Communist Party: Atrophy and Adaptation\u300b \u4ee5\u53ca\u300aChina Goes Global: The Partial Power\u300b\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u81ea\u5f9e 2012 \u5e74\u4e0a\u4efb\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f46\u7e7c\u7e8c 2009 \u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u9ad8\u58d3\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u8b8a\u672c\u52a0\u53b2\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u4ed6\u6253\u64ca\u7684\u5c0d\u8c61\u5ee3\u800c\u5927\u4e4b\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5a92\u9ad4\u3001\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u9ad4\u3001\u96fb\u5f71\u3001\u85dd\u8853\u3001\u6587\u5b78\u3001\u5b97\u6559\u5718\u9ad4\u3001\u7db2\u969b\u7db2\u8def\u3001\u77e5\u8b58\u4efd\u5b50\u3001\u5716\u4f2f\u7279\u65cf\uff08\u897f\u85cf\u65cf\uff09\u3001\u7dad\u543e\u723e\u65cf\u3001\u7570\u898b\u4eba\u58eb\u3001\u5f8b\u5e2b\u3001\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u7d44\u7e54\u3001\u5927\u5b78\u5b78\u751f\u3001\u6559\u79d1\u66f8\u30022013 \u5e74\u4e2d\u5171\u4e2d\u592e\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u6d3e\u767c\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u4e5d\u865f\u6587\u4ef6\uff0c\u547d\u4ee4\u6240\u6709\u55ae\u4f4d\u90fd\u8981\u9a45\u9010\u4efb\u4f55\u8d0a\u540c\u897f\u65b9\u300c\u666e\u4e16\u50f9\u503c\u300d\u7684\u6210\u4efd\u2014\u2014\u5305\u62ec\u8d0a\u6210\u6c11\u4e3b\u61b2\u653f\u3001\u516c\u6c11\u793e\u6703\u3001\u8a00\u8ad6\u81ea\u7531\u3001\u65b0\u81ea\u7531\u4e3b\u7fa9\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u4eba\u7269\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6709\u5b89\u5168\u611f\u3001\u6709\u81ea\u4fe1\u7684\u653f\u5e9c\u4e0d\u6703\u9032\u884c\u9019\u9ebc\u56b4\u53b2\u7684\u93ae\u58d3\u3002\u9019\u662f\u9ee8\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u6df1\u611f\u7126\u616e\u8207\u4e0d\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u75c5\u5146\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5ef6\u4f38\u95b1\u8b80\uff1a<\/strong><\/span>\u5b69\u5b50\uff0c\u4f60\u77e5\u9053\u81ea\u5df1\u6c92\u6709\u570b\u5bb6\u55ce\uff1f\u9019\u4f4d\u8001\u5e2b\u8acb\u4f86\u672d\u897f\u6148\u4ec1\u544a\u8a34\u5c0f\u5b78\u751f\u5716\u535a\u7684\u6545\u4e8b<\/a><\/h6>\n

\u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u9023\u8a31\u591a\u975e\u5e38\u5fe0\u8c9e\u7684\u9ee8\u54e1\u90fd\u53ea\u662f\u5728\u8d70\u904e\u5834\u800c\u5df2\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u904e\u53bb\u5e7e\u5e74\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u6cbb\u865b\u8207\u5c3e\u86c7\u7684\u6c1b\u570d\uff0c\u8b93\u4eba\u5f88\u96e3\u4e0d\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u590f\u5929\uff0c\u5728\u5317\u4eac\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u4e2d\u5171\u667a\u5eab\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u662f\u5c11\u6578\u5e7e\u500b\u53c3\u8207\u7fd2\u6c0f\u4e2d\u5fc3\u601d\u60f3\u2014\u2014\u300c\u4e2d\u570b\u5922\u300d\u2014\u2014\u7814\u8a0e\u6703\u7684\u5916\u570b\u4eba\uff08\u4e5f\u662f\u552f\u4e00\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u4eba\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6574\u6574\u5169\u5929\u7684\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u4e8c\u5341\u5e7e\u4f4d\u9ee8\u5167\u5b78\u8005\u8f2a\u6d41\u4e0a\u53f0\u767c\u8868\u5197\u9577\u6c89\u60b6\u7684\u5831\u544a\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u8868\u60c5\u6728\u7136\u3001\u52d5\u4f5c\u50f5\u786c\u3001\u7121\u804a\u4e4b\u60c5\u6ea2\u65bc\u8a00\u8868\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u71b1\u70c8\u64c1\u6234\u9ee8\u8207\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u6700\u65b0\u57f7\u653f\u7406\u5ff5\u7684\u6a23\u5b50\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u865b\u61c9\u6545\u4e8b\u800c\u5df2\u3002<\/p>\n

\u986f\u800c\u6613\u898b\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u5927\u5f35\u9f4a\u9f13\u7684\u6587\u5ba3\u5df2\u7136\u5931\u6548\uff0c\u7687\u5e1d\u5c31\u662f\u6c92\u6709\u7a7f\u8863\u670d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53bb\u5e74\u5341\u4e8c\u6708\uff0c\u6211\u53c8\u56de\u5230\u5317\u4eac\u53c3\u52a0\u4e2d\u592e\u9ee8\u6821\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u5834\u6703\u8b70\uff0c\u518d\u4e00\u6b21\u770b\u5230\u4e2d\u570b\u6700\u9ad8\u968e\u5b98\u54e1\u4ee5\u53ca\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u5c08\u5bb6\u9f4a\u8072\u8aa6\u63da\u5343\u7bc7\u4e00\u5f8b\u7684\u53e3\u865f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e00\u5929\u7684\u5348\u9910\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u6211\u7279\u610f\u5230\u6821\u5712\u66f8 \u574a\u53bb\u77a7\u77a7\u2014\u2014\u6b64\u5730\u662f\u6211\u4e86\u89e3\u4e2d\u5171\u9ad8\u5e79\u90fd\u5728\u5b78\u4e9b\u4ec0\u9ebc\u7684\u597d\u53bb\u8655\u3002<\/p>\n

\u66f8\u67b6\u4e0a\u7684\u5927\u90e8\u982d\u66f8\u7c4d\u5305\u62ec\u300a\u5217\u5be7\u4f5c\u54c1\u9078\u300b\u3001\u300a\u5eb7\u591a\u8389\u624e\u2027\u8cf4\u65af\u56de\u61b6\u9304\u300b\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u9580\u53e3\u684c\u5b50\u4e0a\u64fa\u8457\u4e00\u758a\u5f88\u9ad8\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u7fa4\u773e\u8def\u7dda\u7684\u6587\u5ba3\u5c0f\u518a\u3002\u6211\u554f\u5e97\u54e1\uff1a\u300c\u9019\u672c\u8ce3\u5f97\u600e\u9ebc\u6a23\uff1f\u300d\u5979\u56de\u7b54\uff1a\u300c\u9019\u4e0d\u8ce3\u7684\uff0c\u53ea\u9001\u3002\u300d\u5b83\u986f\u7136\u4e4f\u4eba\u554f\u6d25\uff0c\u4e0d\u592a\u71b1\u9580\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u56db\uff0c\u7cfe\u7e8f\u9ee8\u570b\u8207\u8ecd\u968a\u7684\u8caa\u8150\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4e5f\u50b3\u67d3\u4e86\u6574\u500b\u4e2d\u570b\u793e\u6703\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u7684\u53cd\u8caa\u904b\u52d5\u6bd4\u8d77\u4e2d\u5171\u6b77\u6b21\u7684\u8085\u8caa\uff0c\u6301\u7e8c\u5f97\u66f4\u4e45\u3001\u4e5f\u66f4\u70ba\u56b4\u53b2\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u4f9d\u7136\u5c3e\u5927\u4e0d\u6389\u3002\u4e00\u9ee8\u7368\u5927\u3001\u5b98\u5546\u52fe\u7d50\u3001\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u900f\u660e\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u5236\u3001\u5a92\u9ad4\u5b8c\u5168\u7531\u570b\u5bb6\u638c\u63a7\u3001\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6cd5\u6cbb\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u6839\u6df1\u8482\u56fa\uff0c\u7121\u6cd5\u89e3\u6c7a<\/strong><\/span>\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u7684\u53cd\u8caa\u904b\u52d5\u662f\u6709\u91dd\u5c0d\u6027\u7684\uff0c\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u771f\u6b63\u8085\u8caa\u3002\u8a31\u591a\u906d\u5230\u6253\u64ca\u7684\u4eba\u7269\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u524d\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u6c5f\u6fa4\u660e\u7684\u5ae1\u7cfb\u6216\u653f\u6cbb\u5925\u4f34\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4eca\u5e74\u516b\u5341\u516b\u6b72\u7684\u6c5f\u6fa4\u660e\u5728\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u754c\u4eba\u671b\u9817\u9ad8\uff0c\u800c\u4ed6\u7336\u5728\u4eba\u4e16\u6642\uff0c\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u5c31\u6253\u64ca\u4ed6\u7684\u6d3e\u7cfb\uff0c\u9019\u5c0d\u7fd2\u81ea\u5df1\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u662f\u5341\u5206\u5371\u96aa\u7684\u52d5\u4f5c\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u8eab\u908a\u4f3c\u4e4e\u6c92\u6709\u4e00\u7fa4\u6709\u529b\u7684\u8fd1\u81e3\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u62d4\u81f3\u9ad8\u4f4d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u554f\u984c\u662f\uff0c\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u662f\u4e2d\u5171\u958b\u570b\u5143\u8001\u7684\u5152\u5b50\uff0c\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u300c\u592a\u5b50\u9ee8\u300d\u51fa\u8eab\uff0c\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u95dc\u4fc2\u5c31\u662f\u5176\u4ed6\u7684\u592a\u5b50\u9ee8\u4eba\u3002\u9019\u4e00\u4e9b\u542b\u8457\u9280\u6e6f\u5319\u51fa\u751f\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4ee3\uff0c\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u793e\u6703\u666e\u904d\u618e\u6068\u7684\u4e00\u7fa4\u4eba\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u2014\u2014\u4e0d\u8ad6\u897f\u65b9\u518d\u600e\u9ebc\u8a8d\u70ba\u5b83\u8d85\u82f1\u8d95\u7f8e\u3001\u52e2\u4e0d\u53ef\u64cb\u2014\u2014\u5176\u5be6\u9677\u5728\u4e00\u9023\u4e32\u7684\u7cfb\u7d71\u6027\u9677\u9631\uff0c\u7121\u6cd5\u81ea\u62d4\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

2013 \u5e74 11 \u6708\uff0c\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u4e3b\u6301\u4e86\u7b2c\u5341\u516b\u5c46\u4e09\u4e2d\u5168\u6703\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u8af8\u591a\u7d93\u6539\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u4f46\u5230\u76ee\u524d\u70ba\u6b62\uff0c\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6c92\u6709\u4efb\u4f55\u9032\u5c55\u3002\u6c92\u932f\uff0c\u6d88\u8cbb\u652f\u51fa\u78ba\u5be6\u4e0a\u63da\u3001\u5b98\u50da\u898f\u5b9a\u78ba\u6709\u6e1b\u5c11\u3001\u8ca1\u653f\u4e5f\u6709\u4e86\u6539\u9769\uff0c \u4f46\u662f\u6574\u9ad4\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u6700\u6709\u91ce\u5fc3\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u5df2\u7d93\u80ce\u6b7b\u8179\u4e2d\uff1a<\/p>\n

\u9019\u4efd\u6539\u9769\u65b9\u6848\u6311\u6230\u8a31\u591a\u6700\u6839\u6df1\u8482\u56fa\u3001\u52e2\u529b\u9f90\u5927\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u5718\u9ad4\u2014\u2014\u5305\u62ec\u570b\u71df\u4f01\u696d\u3001\u5730\u65b9\u5e79\u90e8\u7b49\u7b49\u2014\u2014\u4ed6\u5011\u967d\u5949\u9670\u9055\uff0c\u963b\u64cb\u5b83\u7684\u5be6\u65bd\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4e94\u6a23\u51fa\u73fe\u5728\u4e2d\u5171\u653f\u6b0a\u7684\u660e\u986f\u88c2\u7e2b\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u900f\u904e\u653f\u6cbb\u6539\u9769\u624d\u80fd\u4fee\u5fa9\u3002\u9664\u975e\u4e2d\u570b\u653e\u9b06\u56b4\u53b2\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u5b83\u6c38\u9060\u7121\u6cd5\u8b8a\u6210\u4e00\u500b\u6709\u5275\u610f\u7684\u793e\u6703\u3001\u4e5f\u7121\u6cd5\u767c\u5c55\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u300c\u77e5\u8b58\u7d93\u6fdf\u300d\u2014\u2014\u9019\u662f\u4e09\u4e2d\u5168\u6703\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u76ee\u6a19\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u570b\u4e9f\u9700\u793e\u6703\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u5927\u7684\u7d46\u8173\u77f3\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5b83\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u7cfb\u7d71\u3002<\/strong>\u5982\u679c\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u8207\u5176\u4ed6\u9ee8\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u4e0d\u653e\u9b06\u63a7\u5236\uff0c\u4e0d\u4f46\u6b32\u901f\u4e0d \u9054\uff0c\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u8d70\u4e0a\u4ed6\u5011\u4e00\u5fc3\u60f3\u8981\u907f\u514d\u7684\u4ea1\u9ee8\u4e4b\u8def\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u7684\u300c\u4e2d\u570b\u5922\u300d\u5c31\u662f\u70ba\u4e86\u8981\u907f\u514d\u8607\u806f\u7684\u5922\u9b58\u3002\u4ed6\u4e0a\u4efb\u4e0d\u5230\u5e7e\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u5c31\u5728\u6f14\u8aaa\u4e2d\u5606\u60cb\u8607\u806f\u7684\u8986\u6ec5\u3001\u4e0d\u6eff\u6208\u5df4\u5951\u592b\u7684\u80cc\u53db\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u6b20\u7f3a\u4e00\u500b\u300c\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u7537\u5b50\u6f22\u300d\u4f86 \u8207\u6539\u9769\u6d3e\u9818\u5c0e\u4eba\u76f8\u6297\uff0c\u9019\u8aaa\u660e\u4e86\u4ed6\u7684\u6240\u601d\u6240\u60f3\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7fd2\u6c0f\u4eca\u65e5\u5be6\u65bd\u7684\u5404\u7a2e\u653f\u6cbb\u6574\u8085\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u6545\u610f\u8207\u6208\u5df4\u5951\u592b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6539\u9769\uff08perestroik\uff09\u8207\u958b\u653e\u653f\u7b56 \uff08glasnost\uff09\u80cc\u9053\u800c\u99b3\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u7fd2\u5148\u751f\u7981\u7d55\u958b\u653e\uff0c\u8b8a\u672c\u52a0\u53b2\u63a7\u5236\u7570\u898b\u4eba\u58eb\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u751a\u81f3\u9ee8\u5167\u7684\u5c0d\u624b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5ef6\u4f38\u95b1\u8b80\uff1a<\/strong><\/span>\u8eb2\u907f\u6c11\u4e3b\u5316\u7684\u300c\u4e2d\u570b\u5922\u300d\uff1a\u7576\u4eba\u5011\u4e0d\u518d\u76f8\u4fe1\u7fd2\u5f0f\u6a19\u8a9e\u6642\uff0c\u9769\u547d\u5c07\u6703\u958b\u555f<\/a><\/h6>\n

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\u81ea\u5f9e 2009 \u5e74\u4ee5\u5f8c\uff08\u4e5f\u662f\u672c\u4f86\u5fc3\u5b58\u958b\u653e\u7684\u80e1\u9326\u6fe4\u6539\u8b8a\u4f5c\u6cd5\uff0c\u52a0\u5f37\u7b9d\u5236\u4e4b\u6642\uff09\uff0c\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u7126\u616e\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u958b\u59cb\u8d70\u56de\u982d\u8def\uff0c\u653e\u68c4\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u6bcf\u4e00\u9805\u653f\u6cbb\u6539\u9769\uff08\u9664\u4e86\u5e79\u90e8\u8a13\u7df4\u5236\u5ea6\u4ee5\u5916\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9019 \u4e9b\u6539\u9769\u662f\u6c5f\u6fa4\u6c11\u5ae1\u7cfb\u3001\u524d\u570b\u5bb6\u526f\u4e3b\u5e2d\u66fe\u6176\u7d05\u4e3b\u5c0e\u7b56\u5283\u7684\uff1b\u66fe\u6176\u7d05\u5df2\u65bc 2008 \u5e74\u9000\u4f11\uff0c\u73fe\u5728\u6b63\u53d7\u5230\u7fd2\u6c0f\u53cd\u8caa\u904b\u52d5\u7684\u61f7\u7591\u2014\u2014\u4e5f\u8c61\u5fb5\u4e86\u7fd2\u8fd1\u5e73\u5c0d\u4efb\u4f55\u8212\u7de9\u4e2d\u570b\u75be\u75c5\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u62b1\u6301\u8457\u83ab\u5927\u7684\u6575\u610f\u3002<\/p>\n

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\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u8a72\u6ce8\u610f\u4e2d\u5171\u5b98\u5a92\u3001\u570b\u5b89\u7cfb\u7d71\u4e0d\u518d\u56b4\u8b39\u9075\u5b88\u9ee8\u570b\u6307\u4ee4\u7684\u90a3\u4e00\u5929\u2014\u2014\u4ed6\u5011\u8aaa\u4e0d\u5b9a\u6703\u8f49\u800c\u8a8d\u540c\u7570\u8b70\u4efd\u5b50\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u96fb\u5f71\u300a\u7aca\u807d\u98a8\u66b4\u300b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6771\u5fb7\u7684\u53f2\u5854\u897f\u7279\u52d9\u8f49\u800c\u540c\u60c5\u4ed6\u6240\u7aca\u807d\u7684\u5c0d\u8c61\u3002\u4e00\u65e6\u4eba\u7684\u540c\u7406\u5fc3\u52dd\u51fa\uff0c\u4e0d\u518d\u8a8d\u540c\u50f5\u5316\u7684\u7d71\u6cbb\u8005\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u7684\u672b\u65e5\u5c31\u958b\u59cb\u4e86\u3002<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\/\/www.wsj.com\/a\u2026\/the-coming-chinese-crack-up-1425659198<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\uff08\u672c\u6587\u70ba\u89c0\u5ff5\u5ea7\u6a19<\/a>\u6388\u6b0a\uff0c\u539f\u6587\u6a19\u984c\uff1a\u4e2d\u5171\u5373\u5c07\u57ae\u53f0\uff0c\u975e\u7d93\u5141\u8a31\u3001\u4e0d\u5f97\u8f49\u8f09\uff1b\u5716\u7247\u4f86\u6e90\uff1aTHE WALL STREET JOURNAL<\/a>\uff09<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

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