\u3010\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6211\u5011\u6311\u9078\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u3011<\/span><\/p>\n \u300a\u81f4\u5bcc\u7684\u7279\u6b0a\u300b\u4e00\u51fa\u7248\u5c31\u6210\u70ba\u91d1\u878d\u5708\u7684\u9707\u64bc\u5f48\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u5728\u73fe\u4efb\u592e\u884c\u7e3d\u88c1\u694a\u91d1\u9f8d\u70ba\u6b64\u5beb\u516c\u958b\u4fe1\u5f8c\uff0c\u5438\u5f15\u773e\u591a\u7db2\u53cb\u6ce8\u610f\uff0c\u76f4\u8a00\u300c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e0d\u770b\u4e0d\u884c\u300d\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u8a72\u66f8\u4e5f\u56e0\u70ba\u4f5c\u8005\u7fa4\u80cc\u666f\u3001\u7280\u5229\u8ad6\u8ff0\uff0c\u5f15\u767c\u6b63\u53cd\u5169\u6975\u7684\u56de\u61c9\u3002<\/p>\n \u770b\u904e\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e86\u55ce\uff1f\u6b64\u7bc7\u9069\u5408\u6c92\u770b\u904e\u7684\u4f60\u722c\u68b3\u5167\u5bb9\uff0c\u66f4\u9069\u5408\u5e6b\u770b\u904e\u7684\u4f60\u89e3\u6c7a\u5fc3\u4e2d\u7591\u60d1\u3002\uff08\u8cac\u4efb\u7de8\u8f2f\uff1a\u8cf4\u6021\u7487\uff09<\/p><\/blockquote>\n \u6587\uff0f\u6625\u5c71\u51fa\u7248<\/p>\n 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\u554f 2\uff1a\u6839\u64da\u8b70\u4e8b\u9304\u6458\u8981\uff0c\u5f9e\u672a\u770b\u5230\u4f60\u5011\u53cd\u5c0d\u963b\u5347\u7684\u532f\u7387\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u5426\u4ee3\u8868\u4f60\u5011\u4e0d\u5728\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\u4e0a\u9673\u8ff0\u60f3\u6cd5\uff0c\u53ea\u5728\u5916\u9762\u653e\u70ae\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n \u7b54\uff1a\u95dc\u65bc\u9019\u9ede\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u76f8\u7576\u7121\u5948\u3002\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u91cd\u9ede\u662f\u8a0e\u8ad6 1998\u20132010 \u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u963b\u5347\u65b0\u53f0\u5e63\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u97ff<\/strong>\uff0c\u4e8b\u5be6\u4e0a\u4f5c\u8005\u4e4b\u4e00\u5728 2018 \u5e74\u9032\u5165\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\u5f8c\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u7684\u5916\u532f\u5e72\u9810\u4e26\u4e0d\u5982 2010 \u5e74\u524d\u4e4b\u56b4\u91cd\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u7576\u6642\u6b63\u9022\u7f8e\u570b FED 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\u6b21\u7406\u76e3\u4e8b\u806f\u5e2d\u6703\u8b70\u6709\u5982\u4e0b\u7684\u767c\u8a00\uff1a\u300c\u6628\u65e5\u7f8e\u570b\u8ca1\u653f\u90e8\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u532f\u7387\u5831\u544a\uff0c\u8a72\u5831\u544a\u5f15\u7528\u4e00\u500b\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u65b0\u53f0\u5e63\u532f\u7387\u4f4e\u4f30\u9054 21% \u3002\u300d<\/p>\n \u592e\u884c\u96d6\u5e38\u5ba3\u7a31\u532f\u7387\u653f\u7b56\u4fc2\u532f\u7387\u7a69\u5b9a\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4f46\u5916\u754c\u7684\u89e3\u8b80\u5f80\u5f80\u70ba\u532f\u7387\u8cb6\u503c\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u8209\u4f8b\u800c\u8a00\uff0c 1990\u20131997 \u5e74\u65b0\u53f0\u5e63\u5e73\u5747\u532f\u7387\u70ba 26.8\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u7387\u70ba 6.9% \uff1b 1998\u20132010 \u5e74\uff08\u5373\u5e02\u5834\u89e3\u8b80\u53f0\u7063\u63a1\u53d6\u532f\u7387\u8cb6\u503c\u653f\u7b56\u671f\u9593\uff09\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u532f\u7387\u70ba 32.8\uff0c\u4f46\u5e73\u5747\u7d93\u6fdf\u6210\u9577\u7387\u50c5 4.61%\u3002\u82e5\u5254\u9664 2001\u20132002 \u5e74\u3001 2008\u20132010 \u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u5e45\u5ea6\u8f03\u5927\u7684\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u5247\u5e73\u5747\u6210\u9577\u7387\u4ea6\u50c5 5.8% \uff0c\u986f\u793a\u65b0\u53f0\u5e63\u532f\u7387\u5347\u503c\u81f3 26 \u5de6\u53f3\u6642\uff0c\u4ea6\u672a\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u9020\u6210\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4fc2\u57fa\u65bc\u7c97\u7565\u7684\u6bd4\u8f03\uff0c\u5f85\u7d93\u7814\u8655\u91dd\u5c0d\u6b64\u65b9\u9762\u591a\u505a\u4e00\u4e9b\u76f8\u95dc\u7814\u7a76\uff0c \u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u63d0\u4f9b\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\u53c3\u8003\uff0c\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u4ea6\u53ef\u8b93\u793e\u6703\u5927\u773e\u4e86\u89e3\uff0c\u6bcb\u9808\u5c0d\u65b0\u53f0\u5e63\u5347\u503c\u904e\u5ea6\u64d4\u5fc3\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n 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3\uff1a\u65e2\u7136\u8eab\u70ba\u73fe\u4efb\u7406\u4e8b\uff0c\u70ba\u4f55\u4e0d\u5728\u7406\u4e8b\u6703\u8868\u9054\u610f\u898b\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u9078\u64c7\u51fa\u66f8\u6279\u8a55\u592e\u884c\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n \u7b54\uff1a\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u53ef\u5f9e 2 \u500b\u5c64\u9762\u4f86\u56de\u7b54\u3002 \u9996\u5148\uff0c\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u662f\u5728\u56de\u9867\u53f0\u7063\u904e\u53bb 20 \u5e74\u4f86\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u4e4b\u6982\u8c8c\u8207\u5f71\u97ff<\/span>\u3002\u4e86\u89e3\u904e\u53bb\uff0c\u6709\u52a9\u65bc\u6211\u5011\u601d\u8003\u672a\u4f86\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u4e4b\u8d70\u5411\u3002\u800c\u6aa2\u8a0e\u904e\u53bb\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u624d\u80fd\u9032\u800c\u63d0\u51fa\u592e\u884c\u5236\u5ea6\u548c\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u6539\u9769\u7684\u5efa\u8b70\u3002<\/p>\n 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\u9801\uff0c\u8a3b\u8173 4 \uff09\u3002\u5982\u679c\u7c21\u55ae\u4f30\u8a08\u4e00\u500b\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u7e3d\u9ad4\u7d50\u69cb\u6027\u81ea\u6211\u5411\u91cf\u8ff4\u6b78\u6a21\u578b\uff08Kilian and Lutkepohl\uff0c2017\uff09\uff0c\u518d\u5229\u7528\u900f\u904e\u885d\u64ca\u53cd\u61c9\u51fd\u6578\u5206\u6790\u6aa2\u8996\u65e5\u672c\u8cc7\u6599\uff081980\u20132018\uff09\u4e5f\u6703\u770b\u5230\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n 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